Looking at Virginia’s and Florida State’s respective recent results is quite indicative of the way both are playing. For Virginia, it’s four losses out of the last six, and for their nationally respected foes, it’s nine wins out of nine. Not exactly a reason for optimism for Virginia fans, to say the least. This seems to indicate that Florida State will be walking out of JPJ on Tuesday night with an easy victory. So here are four reasons that Florida State won’t have any trouble with Virginia — and four that the Hoos might just pull off an upset victory.
Why Virginia will win
1. The Hoos have found a shooter
That’s right! Tomas Woldetensae banged in 7 threes in 14 tries against Wake Forest. And for those who just think that it was just a one-off performance, the JUCO transfer had hit 17 of his prior 31 coming into Sunday’s victory. So at least there’s one guy on the roster who can hit threes at a consistent rate. That’s more than you can say for the rest of the team, who hit no threes in the first 39:14 of the Wake game, until Jay Huff splashed a crucial one from the corner. Still, Woldetensae’s newfound three-point shooting prowess will be fantastic for this team going forward. This is both great because obviously a three-pointer is worth 1.5x more than a shot from inside the arc, but also because…
2. Virginia can now deal more damage inside
Without anybody on the team that could be trusted to knock down a wide-open trey, opponents were able to pack it in and let the Hoos clank shots off the iron from the outside. Now, there is at least one shooter that has to be respected. This opens space up inside for players such as Diakite and Huff to work. With opponents no longer able to collapse on him when he gets the ball, it will be interesting to see how the preseason first-team All-ACC selection fares. Let’s hope it’s a lot better.
3. FSU could barely score in the first meeting
In their last seven outings, the Seminoles have scored above 70 points in six of them. The outlier? A 54-point showing on their home court in the first game between these two teams. The best defensive team in the country managed to shut down the fifth-best team in the nation on their home court. A repeat performance is likely, especially in C-Ville.
4. FSU has been shaky recently
An overtime victory against Miami followed by a one-point nailbiter against Notre Dame may not matter to the AP voters. It does, however, matter to me. When you nearly lose to two middle/bottom of the pack teams in a weaker ACC, it spells trouble for the future. It’s not exactly reflected in their record, but Florida State has been in a bunch of close ones against bad teams. Eventually, they’re bound to lose one. It could be in this game.
Why Florida State will win
1. They can win close games
Yes, Florida State has been in a series of close games against weak opposition. But in the end, they’ve won all of them. That certainly means something, especially as the team facing them has shown that they can’t. Whereas Florida State has a run of close wins, Virginia has a run of close losses. The Hoos did win a close on against Wake, but their recent track record proves them as anything but closers.
2. They can shoot the rock
The shooting struggles of this Virginia team are well documented. They’re currently averaging 26.8% from deep and 40.1% from the field, in addition to shooting 69.5% from the charity stripe. Florida State, on the other hand, shoots 35.6%, 46.1%, and 77% in those three categories. Can’t score if you can’t shoot it, and Virginia really can’t. Florida State’s going to need to shoot well to win against the packline.
3. They go about a mile deep
Florida State has 10 players that average 10 or more minutes per game. Ten. That’s absurd. It’s also invaluable in a long season, and could play a big factor in this game. Virginia only goes essentially six deep. With the slow pace the Hoos play, it’s not as much of a factor as in a running style, but it could certainly make an impact. On top of this, Florida State has an extra day’s rest.
4. Florida State’s a better team
They are. They’re more skilled than Virginia. You could argue the point, but anybody that says that Virginia is more talented than FSU is kidding themselves. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Noles are going to win the game, but it does tilt the scales in their direction.