At long last, we’ve reached the point of the season at which some vestige of order has been established among the ranks of the ACC. Louisville is firmly entrenched atop the standings, with Duke and Florida State struggling to keep up. Meanwhile, Virginia has broken out ahead of the pack, holding a one-game advantage over Syracuse at the fourth spot.
A half-game behind the Orange lies NC State, sixth in the conference. After that, the ACC spirals down into madness. Six teams have five wins, with Notre Dame holding a slight edge over the rest because they’ve played one less game. Oh well. So much for order. Still, at this point in the season we more or less know where each team stands in terms of tournament hopes.
Tier 1 – The Elites
1. Louisville (11-1)
It would take an absolute collapse for any of the Tier 1 teams to miss the big dance. Louisville is certainly no exception to this rule, and might make it in even if they lost the rest of their games. It was touch-and-go with Wake for a while Wednesday night, but Jordan Nwora carried the Cards through. He’s been incredible recently, notching 21, 14, and 37 points, respectively, in each of his last three games. Louisville is showing no sign of stopping as they eye a one seed.
This Weekend: Virginia
2. Duke (9-2)
The margins between Florida State and Duke are ever so thin. Duke gets the edge simply because their wins have been slightly more convincing than those of the Noles. There have still been worrying outcomes for the Blue Devils (See: Clemson, University of), but they are fewer and farther between than those of the Noles. And for Duke, there seems to be a higher ceiling as well. They, like FSU, are an incredibly deep team, and players such as Joey Baker and Matthew Hurt still have room to grow.
This Weekend: @ North Carolina
3. Florida State (9-2)
The Noles have looked very shaky as of late. Their most convincing win in the last month was against Virginia Tech, who has also lost four straight. That said, there is something to be said for teams that are able to win close game after close game. And, like Duke, FSU goes infinitely deep. Both of these things bode well for the future, and especially for the NCAA tourney.
This Weekend: Miami
Tier 2 – The Bubble
4. Virginia (7-4)
The Hoos are riding a lot of positive momentum, in the midst of a three game win streak. That streak includes a win over Florida State that was a massive boost in their tournament hopes. There’s no doubting that Virginia is prone to long scoring droughts. However, when the Hoos are at their best they are a force to be reckoned with. Kihei Clark has so much room to grow still, as does Casey Morsell and other Virginia players. At this point, the Hoos are in a good spot.
This Weekend: @ Louisville
5. Syracuse (6-5)
Unlike Virginia, Syracuse has not yet earned that signature win. They blew a great chance against Duke in the Carrier Dome, leaving them with only two more opportunities. Those come on the road against FSU and Louisville, and in consecutive games no less. Syracuse absolutely must take one of those games, and saying they need both might not be an overstatement.
This Weekend: Wake Forest
6. NC State (6-6)
Losing at home to a Cole Anthony-less Carolina was a major roadblock on the path to the big dance. As expected, the Wolfpack dropped their following game to Louisville, leaving them with more losses than wins in conference. They responded by winning at Miami, but all the same, it’s a state of extreme worry for NC State fans. Their three point shooting has plummeted drastically recently, and for a team that lives and dies by the three, that needs to change.
This Weekend: N/A
Tier 3 – The Pack
7. Notre Dame (5-6)
Notre Dame is easily the best 5-6 team in the ACC in a long while. To think that they were 3-6 just a couple short weeks ago is crazy. Since, they’ve won three in a row to get back to a respectable record. The Irish lost to NC State, Louisville, Syracuse, and Florida State by a combined 11 points. If they had scraped out any of those, their situation would look a whole lot better right now. They still have a shot at the tournament, but the chances look slim from the current standpoint.
This Weekend: @ Clemson
8. Pittsburgh (5-7)
Jeff Capel is still in the midst of rebuilding a Pitt program with a recent tradition of losing. But he’s doing a pretty decent job in his second year at the helm. He’s given Pitt basketball something to look forward to other than loss after loss. They’re in nearly every game, and with six teams with five wins struggling to break through, they have as good a chance as any to get the sixth ACCT seed.
This Weekend: Georgia Tech
9. North Carolina (3-8)
Before you leave this site in protest, hear me out. Cole Anthony is back from injury for the Heels, and they’ve been playing well recently. Yes, they recently lost to BC. But isn’t everybody losing to everybody now? That loss isn’t any worse than some of the ones committed by the other teams in the ACC, and they almost knocked off FSU. While their record may not reflect it, Carolina is playing as well as anybody in “the pack.”
This Weekend: Duke
10. Georgia Tech (5-7)
Jose Alvarado went off in the first half against Virginia Tech, scoring 19, and then decided to only score one in the second. What the hell, man? Regardless, Georgia Tech went on to win the game by nine. It was their third win in four games (albeit with one coming against Morehouse College). Michael Devoe leads a strong cast of players that just hasn’t been able to piece it together. Maybe they will now.
This Weekend: @ Pittsburgh
11. Boston College (5-7)
Well thanks for nothing BC. They could have beaten Duke at home and dealt them a big loss. Instead, the Eagles lost by eight. But it was a decent team out on the floor for that game. Not a good one, by any means, but one capable of holding their own—and occasionally beating—stronger teams.
This Weekend: @ Virginia Tech
Tier 4 – The Rest
12. Clemson (5-7)
Clemson has looked good at times. They’ve also looked really bad at others. They managed to defeat Syracuse by the skin of their teeth a couple of weeks ago. Then, to follow that up, they lost by 12 at the hands of Wake. And the only reason they weren’t blown out of the building by Virginia was because the Hoos had one of their classic scoring droughts. There’s nowhere to go for Clemson at this point, barring a miracle.
This Weekend: Notre Dame
13. Virginia Tech (5-7)
The Hokies have lost five out of six and four in a row. The sole win was by two points on their home court against a pre-return of Cole Anthony Carolina team. There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Virginia Tech is not a good team right now. Fans may still be clinging to hopes of an NCAA tournament berth, but in reality they’re in vain. It’s over for the Hokies.
This Weekend: Boston College
14. Miami (3-9)
There’s not much to differentiate between Miami and Wake at this point. They’ve both lost seven out of their last nine games, and are spiraling down a shaft into a pit of gloom. For Miami to have been successful this year, it was going to take monster play from Chris Lykes. That hasn’t exactly happened, with the miniscule point guard actually averaging a point less than he did a year ago.
This Weekend: @ Florida State
15. Wake Forest (3-9)
There’s not very many nice things to be said about Wake Forest. It was nice for them to finally get a win, which they did so against Clemson by 12. It was impressive to send Virginia to overtime a couple of weeks ago as well. Besides that, it looks pretty bleak for the Deacs. Their four leading scorers are all Juniors and Seniors (two of each), so there’s not much to look forward to in the future. The sad plight of Wake Forest hoops continues.
This Weekend: @ Syracuse