We’re getting closer and closer to the start of the 2020-21 college basketball season, so in anticipation of that glorious day we’ve been breaking down the schedule. We’ve already taken a look at the non-conference games, and now it’s time to move into what will be a crazy ACC slate of games. This schedule is weird, in that not until February 6 does one of the other projected top five teams show up on the schedule, and it takes another nine days to see a ranked opponent.
Weird schedule or not, it’ll be a fun ride. Let’s preview all of the ACC games, and the probability that the Hoos have of coming out on top in each one.
@ Wake Forest – Dec 16
Sandwiched between the final two non-conference games, this is an ideal ACC opener for Virginia. Wake was picked dead last in preseason voting for a reason, and three days before a marquee matchup with #3 Villanova it’s not a bad thing to get what should be an easy first ACC win. New head coach Steve Forbes lost seven players to the transfer portal when Danny Manning was fired, and the replacements he brought in aren’t nearly good enough to make this a game.
Win Probability – 9/10
@ Notre Dame – Dec 29-30
One of eight games that has two potential dates, there is a sizeable rest period between the Nova game and this one no matter which date is picked. And this contest should yield a second easy ACC win. Notre Dame didn’t have a great record last year, but managed to stay in a lot of games against great opposition. That team was led by John Mooney though, and when he walked out of the door he took Notre Dame’s chances of being any good with him. Getting this team to the middle third of the conference would be grounds for a coach of the year award.
Win Probability – 9/10
Virginia Tech – Jan 2
Wabissa Bede is the only player of note that returns for Mike Young’s second go-around. His first season started out in impressive fashion, but that excitement was short-lived as the Hokies meandered to a 7-13 conference record. Hoos vs Hokies without fans will suck, but the inevitable dominant win will not.
Win Probability – 8.5/10
Wake Forest – Jan 5/6
I’ve already discussed Wake, and with this game being at home the scales tip even more towards the Wahoos.
Win Probability – 9.5/10
@ Boston College – Jan 9
Fortunately for Boston College, their coach did not get fired last year. Unfortunately for Boston College, his team is going to suck again, he’ll be fired, and ultimately they’ll be in the same position as Wake but a year behind. Oh, and Steffon Mitchell and Co. will get pounded at home as punishment for their victory last year.
Win Probability – 9/10
Notre Dame – Jan 12/13
The other team to have the misfortune to be matched up against Virginia twice in the first month of conference play, this game should be no different from the first one: A convincing Wahoo win.
Win Probability- 9/10
@ Clemson – Jan 16
Aamir Simms is the only sure thing about Brad Brownell’s squad heading into the season, but Al-Amir Dawes might prove to be the second very quickly. Clemson made it very clear last year that they could play with the big boys, beating Louisville, Duke, Florida State and UNC all in the same season. They only won five ACC games outside of those four, but all the same it’s proof that the type of game that Clemson plays will make this the first ACC game that gives me any small level of concern.
Win probability – 8/10
NC State – Jan 19/20
The Wolfpack are in a similar state of being as Clemson. They lost a few great players last year, but Devon Daniels, DJ Funderburk, and Braxton Beverly all return. That’s as solid a trio as anybody outside the top five of this conference. NC State’s tendency to chuck up threes and play less than stellar defense makes it tough to believe in their season, but there’s always a chance that this team gets hot and pulls one out.
Win probability: 8/10
Georgia Tech – Jan 23
Georgia Tech was a revelation last year when they finished a very impressive fifth in the conference. They lose their biggest inside presence in James Banks III, but retain Michael Devoe and Jose Alvarado. That pair of guards is one of the best in the ACC, arguably even inside the top three. This is the third of four games in a row against what could be deemed the middle of the conference, and while Virginia should have the answers for the Yellow Jackets this might be the toughest conference test yet.
Win Probability – 7.5/10
Syracuse – Jan 25
The looming question for Syracuse a few days out from the season is whether Buddy Boeheim and Joe Girard can fill the shoes that Elijah Hughes left. Those are massive shoes, and it’s unclear whether the duo is up to the task. Syracuse is always going to present a different look than most, but this veteran team should have no trouble solving the 2-3 zone. Another win is in the cards.
Win Probability – 8/10
@ Virginia Tech – Jan 30
This is always going to be a rivalry game, but the charged atmosphere and excitement that always gives the Hokies a chance in Blacksburg simply won’t be there. Hoos by a large margin.
Win Probability – 8.5/10
@ NC State – Feb 2/3
Again, what would make for a dangerous road game in a place where Kevin Keatts teams like to scare the piss out of ACC juggernauts is going to be totally flat. The second game against the Wolfpack in as many weeks shouldn’t be too much of a test, barring a crazy shooting night from any of those wildly inconsistent guards.
Win Probability – 8/10
Louisville – Feb 6
We’ve now entered what I like to call part 2 of this ACC schedule. College hoops are always so unpredictable, but Virginia should be heavy favorites in every previous game and should walk out on top in each one. But now we enter the one month period that includes five games against the top 27 teams in the country. That period starts and ends with Louisville, a team that is largely up in the air due to their influx of recruits. It’s tough to say without having seen this team in action, but at present the Hoos look a good deal better.
Win Probability – 7/10
@ Georgia Tech – Feb 9/10
A brief respite (but not really) before the truly brutal section hits, this game is probably the second-easiest of the eight game stretch—which is terrifying given that Georgia Tech is easily in the top half of this league. This was not the year to have to play the Yellow Jackets twice.
Win Probability – 7/10
#16 North Carolina – Feb 13
Garrison Brooks is the preseason ACC player of the year, beating out Sam Hauser. Seeing those two on the court at the same time is going to be truly captivating, as will the matchup between Virginia and a criminally underrated UNC team. Roy Williams has improved upon “the least talented team he’s ever coached,” and if Caleb Love is as good as advertised it’ll be a phenomenal game.
Win Probability – 6/10
@ #21 Florida State – Feb 15
The general rule with Leonard Hamilton’s Florida State teams is that they’ll cut their preseason rankings at least in half. This Florida State team is no different, though they lose a ton of talent. MJ Walker will lead the Noles, and close behind will be freshman Scottie Barnes, who looks like one of the better freshmen in the league. This should be another tough game.
Win Probability: 6.5/10
@ #9 Duke – Feb 20
It’s doubtful that this Duke team is going to be as good as advertised, and they’re certainly not a top 10 team, but by late February the freshmen will have matured. The Blue Devils will also benefit from being the third great ACC team that Virginia has to play in a one-week span. Cameron Indoor will be a lot less daunting without fans, but this should still be the next in a recent string of amazing UVA-Duke games.
Win Probability – 6/10
Pittsburgh – Feb 23/24
Over the last month of the season, this is the only game that should be a comfortable win. With Trey McGowens off to Nebraska, this team is going to be significantly less dangerous than it could have been. They still have a solid guard duo in Xavier Johnson and Justin Champagnie, but that alone just isn’t good enough to give the Wahoos a run for their money.
Win Probability: 9.5/10
Miami – Mar 2/3
Lykes is back, McGusty is back, and Larranaga brings in two recruits with huge potential upside. Miami’s always going to be a question mark no matter how good they look on paper, but that paper looks quite promising right now. It’s too soon to make a definitive call on the Hurricanes, but they definitely have the firepower to make it interesting.
Win Probability: 7.5/10
@ Louisville – Mar 6
There are some great memories from this season finale game over the past few years, from De’Andre Hunter’s three off the glass at the Yum! Center in 2017-18 to cutting down the nets as ACC champions at JPJ the year after. And of course, who can forget the Elite Eight game that took place in this building a couple years ago? Anyway, a month after the first matchup, these two teams will get another crack at each other. It should be a good one.
Win Probability: 7/10