Virginia will take on eighth-seeded Syracuse in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, the Orange having defeated ninth-seeded NC State in the second round.  

It will be the second matchup between the two teams this season, Virginia blowing Syracuse out 81-58 at John Paul Jones Arena the first time around.  But Jim Boeheim’s squad has undergone significant improvement since then, and with plenty on the line for both sides this promises to be a tightly contested battle.

The first meeting

Virginia and Syracuse first butted heads back in January, the 23-point Wahoo victory extending their win streak to seven.  It was the forward show in that one, the trio of Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, and Trey Murphy combining for 58 points and 12 made threes.

Put simply, Virginia did everything that was needed to break the 2-3 zone.  They hit their outside shots, going 45% from deep.  They killed the Orange on the boards, out-rebounding them by 13.  And they found the pockets in the zone, Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman doing an admirable job getting the ball to the aforementioned forwards.

The Hoos basically wrote the book on how to break the Syracuse defense.  All they have to do this time is follow the plan that it lays out.

On the other side of the court, Syracuse had little success against Virginia’s own trademark defense.  They shot an abysmal 5-24 from three, getting by largely on the backs of Quincy Guerrier and Alan Griffin, who combined for 28 points.

Syracuse scored 22 points in the paint in that game, beating Virginia’s guards off the dribble and cashing in on tough shots at the rim.  Like Louisville, they lack a strong, tall big man, which was a huge factor in Virginia’s season-ending win over the Cardinals.  But the Orange do have a selection of physical guards and forwards who, while undersized, can get inside if they so choose.

Things have changed since that first game, but Virginia still matches up fairly well against Syracuse.

What Syracuse has done since then

The Orange have embarked on a mini-run over their last few games.  They eked out a two-point win over North Carolina last week, before beating Clemson by 10 and then crushing NC State.  Buddy Boeheim has been the star during this period, scoring 70 points between the three games.

The stretch of victories serves a much greater purpose though.  It gets Syracuse back on the fringes of the bubble, with a chance to potentially break in if they take down 16th-ranked Virginia.  Knowing that they are so close could give them an edge against a UVA team that is firmly in the field of 68.

And if their second round performance is anything to go by, Syracuse will not go down quietly.  They sunk 14 threes against the helpless Wolfpack, shooting 48% from deep and 57% from the field.  A repeat of that is unlikely, but then again it’s March and this is college basketball, so it’s not out of the question.

Anyway, another big shooting night would spell serious trouble for Virginia.  The Hoos hold an advantage due to their superior interior presence, but that loses its value if they are forced to step out further and further to guard the three.

Syracuse was also propelled in their ACCT opener by 14 points from Joe Girard, and 12 apiece from Guerrier and Griffin.  Girard is not afraid to pull the trigger, and he will try to speed Virginia up by shooting early in the clock.  

It’s a talented starting five for Syracuse, and they look like they’ve put it together in the last couple weeks.

The prediction

Syracuse may have put it together, but Virginia also seemed to have found something in their season finale against Louisville.  It’s not that difficult to identify the main source of that something — Hauser went for 24 points on 9-14 shooting — but they also stepped it up in other aspects of the game where they had previously struggled.

Murphy and Huff are playing well, Justin McKoy has carved out a spot in the rotation, and Tomas Woldetensae is good for a few points off the bench every game.   The defense was also better, holding Louisville to 58 points on 37% shooting.

The key component of the equation, however, is still missing.  Yes, all the things above are important factors, but there is one last piece needed to hold them together.

That piece is guard play.  Casey Morsell has faded into obscurity after a couple of exciting performances, while Clark and Beekman continue to underperform.  Virginia should be able to get by with the same subpar guard play against Syracuse, but not if they go toe-to-toe with Georgia Tech in the semifinals.

Regardless, the Hoos have enough offensive firepower to overcome said deficiency against a Syracuse defense that sets up perfectly for their style of play.  The Orange will also take the court less than 24 hours removed from a first round victory, so they will be playing with some level of fatigue.

It will be no pushover, but Virginia is in a good position to advance to the ACC semifinals for the third straight year.

Image – Virginia Athletics