It was during Notre Dame’s ACC second round game against Boston College that the unfortunate news became public. The otherwise uninteresting game between the Irish and Boston College was punctuated by the announcement that the ACC Tournament would not have fans beginning on Thursday.
Obviously this news hit everybody hard. It was made even harder by the fact that the NCAA Tournament had announced its rejection of fans just a few hours prior. The conference tournament was going to be the last week of college hoops with fans before the barren stadiums we’ll be experiencing come next Tuesday.
Instead, we’ll get our first true taste of what a game played in a very large, very empty stadium will feel like. The 23,000 seat Greensboro Coliseum will be devoid of people for the Quarterfinals, save the players, refs, coaches and others that make up the essential pieces to a college basketball game.
Hopefully, we’ll be used to this odd dynamic by the time the Virginia-Notre Dame game rolls around at 7:00. Either way, there will be some great basketball at hand. Here’s three reasons why Virginia wins, but two why Notre Dame does as well.
Why Virginia wins
1. They’re better away from home
Playing off of the unfamiliar circumstances that we’ll be experiencing, this is similar to a road game. In a road game, a team has most of the fans against it, and very few fans of their own. Here, there will be no familiar fans to cheer them on.
Sure, there won’t be any opposing fans, but the toughest part of road games is having no support of your own. In the ACC, Virginia is 7-3 in such games. As the saying goes, ‘defense travels.’ So it does, and Virginia has always been consistent in games without their normal contingent of fans.
Notre Dame has not been, and are only 4-6 in conference road games. While some of this has to do with the simple reason that the Hoos are a better basketball team, that’s not all of it. It’s just that Virginia is better in games without their home fans than Notre Dame is, and neither team will have any this time around.
2. The three-headed monster
The trio of Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff, and Braxton Key have combined to wreak havoc recently. In the last six, the three of them average 33 points per game. That’s about 57% of Virginia’s total scoring. They also combine for 21 rebounds per game in that stretch.
Huff’s tear in the last three games has been sudden and unexpected. Without question, he’s playing the best basketball of his career at the moment.
As is Mamadi. He’s been incredible lately, tallying 12 straight games scoring in double-digits. That’s pretty impressive, to say the least.
And while Key hasn’t been blowing the roof off the building with his stats recently, he’s still doing what he needs to. Going for 8 and 8 every game is all that’s needed, and he’s been doing that and more.
John Mooney and the rest of the Notre Dame team are good defenders. But they won’t be able to stop all three of the players that have been so effective as of late.
3. Hoos know how to win close games
We all know what the odds are of a blowout win for Virginia is at this point. Close games have become their way of life over the last couple of months. And that way of life has been going pretty well, by all accounts.
In the current eight-game win streak, the Hoos have won seven by double-digits. It’s almost at the point where I can get through those final few minutes without being nervous about the possibility of sustaining a heart attack. Almost.
Kihei Clark has been a big part of this, hitting or assisting game-winning plays in half of them. His game-sealing three against Louisville showed his composure in such situations. Kihei calmly navigated through players with 12+ inches on him before stopping and splashing the three.
It was the same story — with some small type of modification — in each of the other three. The point is that the Hoos are accustomed to winning close games. This game will undoubtedly be close, and in that case Virginia has the edge.
Why Notre Dame will win
1. They have to
It’s quite simple, really. In order to make the NCAA Tournament, the Irish need this win, and maybe even another in the following round. Their chances to go dancing hang in the balance.
As such, the Irish will be playing desperate. We saw what that could do with their 80-point outing against Boston College, and it would be scary to see that replicated.
It’s not as if the Hoos are indifferent, or anything remotely close to it. Quite the contrary, actually, as Bennett teams rarely take any games lightly. But a team that needs a win is going to play different than one that simply could use another feather in their cap.
There’s no way around that. It’s possible that Notre Dame could use that desperation to take down their superior opposition.
2. John Mooney
Think that Mamadi’s 12 double-digit games in a row streak was impressive? Think again. Before Tuesday’s events, Mooney had a streak of such games that tallied 23 games. 23!
Out of Notre Dame’s 32 games, he’s only scored less than 10 points twice. And the same goes for rebounds. For a college basketball player, that borders on inconceivable. And the bad news is that one of those two games with single-digits took place the day before his game against UVa.
Mooney went nearly four months between single-digit games. He’s not going to have two of them in a row. John Mooney at his peak could very well take down Virginia. We’ll see how that plays out.