The NCAA Tournament is back, and Virginia will enter it as the 4-seed in the West Region. The region is headlined by number-one overall seed Gonzaga, but the Hoos will have to traverse a dangerous field of opponents before they can even think about the Zags.
The past week has been marked with increasing concern over Virginia’s COVID-19 problems. Saturday night they passed the first checkpoint, however, as they were declared eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The Hoos are by no means out of the woods though. At least one player will not be traveling to Indianapolis, and the trip itself has been delayed until Friday by COVID protocols.
We’ll hold off on making picks until later in the week, but for now here’s a quick rundown of every team in Virginia’s quadrant of the bracket.
First round opponent
#13 Ohio
Virginia will open the tournament by taking on 13-seed Ohio in a game that many have already expressed concern about. The Bobcats punched their ticket to the big dance by winning the MAC championship, and are led by Jason Preston, a junior guard that averages 16.6 points and 7.2 assists per game. The two teams share a common opponent of Kent State, who the Hoos needed overtime to defeat. Ohio didn’t fare as well in their 10-point loss to Kent State, but blew them out in the MAC Tournament. The Bobcats also came just three points away from beating Illinois early in the season. They possess a potent offense that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency on KenPom, but a weak defense that comes in at 174th on the site. We’ll delve further into Virginia’s first round opponent in a couple days, but for now know that the Bobcats will be a difficult out for what will be a shorthanded Wahoo team.
Potential second round opponents
#5 Creighton
The Bluejays have put together a solid season, finishing 20-8 and in second place in the Big East. They got blown out in their conference championship game by Georgetown, and dropped games to Big East bottom-feeders Marquette and Butler. But Creighton managed to get victories over Villanova once and UConn three times. They are competent on both sides of the ball, and are propelled on offense by junior guard Marcus Zegarowski, who could give the Hoos trouble if both teams advance.
#12 UC Santa Barbara
The Gauchos are every college basketball analyst’s favorite upset pick, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games, taking down UC Irvine in the Big West title game. But a bunch of weak conference opponents do not provide a good measuring stick for UC Santa Barbara, who has not played a single quadrant one game all season. Their matchup with Creighton will certainly be a fun one to watch.
Potential Sweet 16 opponents
#1 Gonzaga
Gonzaga needs no introduction, as they will become only the 20th team to enter the NCAAT with a perfect record. The Hoos are already familiar with the top-seeded Zags, having suffered a 23-point loss at their hands in December. Wahoo fans know how dominant Mark Few’s group is, and it will be a tall task for any team to knock them off. Their last NCAAT meeting with Virginia was in 2001, an early-morning first round game that left Wahoo fans disappointed the rest of the tournament.
#8 Oklahoma
Virginia fans might remember that Oklahoma was the eight-seed that Virginia faced in the second route en route to a national title. This year, the Sooners could play Gonzaga in the second round. Oklahoma may very well receive the distinct honor of losing to eventual national champions in back-to-back tournaments. They’ve lost five of six, and are headed in the wrong direction going into the tournament.
#9 Missouri
An impressive win over Illinois highlights Missouri’s resume, but there’s not much to be found past that. The Tigers are a fairly deep team though, and Jeremiah Tilmon is a beast at the forward spot. Their first round battle with Oklahoma should be a good one.
#16 Norfolk State/Appalachian State
Norfolk State and Appalachian State will battle it out in the First Four, having won the MEAC and the Sun Belt, respectively. Both teams went on nice runs to end the season, but neither should give Gonzaga much trouble.
Potential Elite Eight opponents
#2 Iowa
With Luka Garza plowing through the opposition and a duo of guards lighting it up from the outside, Iowa’s offense has been nearly impossible to stop all season. But if stopping their offense is like trying to stop a gunshot with toilet paper, beating their defense is like taking a knife to butter. The Hawkeyes are going to be in a lot of high-scoring games over the course of this tournament.
#3 Kansas
The other team in the field of 68 forced to withdraw from their conference tournament, Kansas enters with a similar degree of uncertainty to UVA. They made their way to a second-place finish in a very tough Big 12, and have the pieces to make a run, assuming that they are all available.
#6 USC
In a year with limited non-conference play, USC is another question mark. Making a judgement on the Trojans is hard, as they have played few teams outside of the weak Pac-12. They also lost all four games against the two teams that made the conference title, so they seem like a good upset pick.
#7 Oregon
Oregon also resides in the Pac-12, where they fared slightly better than USC. They were regular season champions, despite falling in the tournament semifinals to eventual champion Oregon State. The Ducks have epitomized consistency over the second half of the season, ending the year by winning 11 of their last 13.
#10 VCU
Virginia did not get to play their annual game against VCU, which is a shame given how good the Rams have looked this season. They finished second in an underrated A-10, falling to St. Bonaventure in the title game. They could very well knock Oregon out of the tournament.
#11 Wichita State/Drake
Wichita State fell in brutal fashion to Cincinnati in an AAC semifinal, but will have been thrilled to find themselves on the bracket. They gave teams like Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Houston close games early in the season, and will be a handful for USC if they advance. But to do so they will first have to go through Drake, who went undefeated for 18 games before closing the year by losing four of 11.
#14 Eastern Washington
The Eagles barely won their Big Sky quarterfinal game, but breezed through the next two rounds to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. They play poor defense though, and their offense isn’t nearly good enough to give them a chance, even if they will benefit from facing a depleted Kansas roster.
#15 Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points all season, even when you factor in matchups with Arizona State and Colorado. Their date with Iowa will likely break that record.
So there you have it. All 15 teams that stand between Virginia and an admittedly unlikely trip to the Final Four. The Hoos will enter the madness on Saturday at 7:15 PM with a battle against Ohio.
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