Another crazy college basketball season has arrived at the place where Cinderellas go to be crowned, title favorites to be struck down and bubbles to be punctured: Champ Week, the final stop before the NCAA’s flagship event kicks off.
Champ Week is already in swing, with three tickets having been punched over the weekend. Now it’s time for the major conference tournaments to begin. The ACC Tournament will begin on Tuesday at 2 pm at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The Hoos finished sixth, meaning they will be vying for the title unaided by a double bye for the first time since the 2017 tournament. To make the NCAA Tournament, Virginia probably has to win four games in four days. No team has done that in the nine-year lifetime of the double bye; no team has won as lower than a #4 seed since Maryland’s victory in 2004. But the conference is arguably the weakest it has been in many years, with just two top 25 teams in the latest rankings.
Here’s a round-by-round preview of Virginia’s chances of advancing through each round. Each preview is accompanied by a confidence meter, rated out of 10 for Virginia’s chances of winning each game.
Second Round: Wednesday, 9:30 pm
Virginia will begin its title pursuit by facing either #11 Louisville or #14 Georgia Tech. The opponent will be determined when the Cardinals and Yellow Jackets meet on Tuesday at 7 pm.
This is ideal for Virginia. The Hoos defeated both Louisville and Georgia Tech by comfortable margins this season. Facing either of them is a far more desirable prospect than playing, say, NC State or Clemson, both of whom Virginia lost to.
It’s anyone’s bet as to which of the two teams advances. Georgia Tech has drastically underperformed all season, and Louisville enters the tournament led by an interim head coach and chased by a four-game losing streak. Virginia would probably rather play Louisville: The Hoos dispatched the Cards twice this season.
There’s always a factor of unpredictability when the single-elimination portion of the season starts, but Virginia should advance to the Thursday session.
Confidence Meter: 8
Quarterfinals: Thursday, 9:30 pm
A win Wednesday would set up a quarterfinal clash with #3 seed North Carolina. If the possible second-round matchup is ideal, this is anything but.
The Heels are the hot team on the block. They’ve won five games in a row, the fifth and greatest of which was a road triumph over Duke that spoiled Coach K’s Cameron Indoor farewell. While most Virginia fans were probably hoping to see the celebrations ruined, a Duke win would have worked better for Virginia: It would have set up a quarterfinal date with Miami.
Instead, it’s Carolina lying in wait for Virginia. The one meeting between Hoos and Heels came back in January, Carolina leading by as many as 25 points and cruising to a 16-point win. Armando Bacot bullied Virginia into submission on that sorry afternoon, and Brady Manek made 5 threes.
Time has passed since then, and Virginia has improved. North Carolina might also be caught napping as it basks in the glow of its win over Duke. Still, the Heels are playing their best basketball of the season. Defeating them will be a tall task.
Confidence Meter: 3
Semifinals: Friday, 9:30 pm
The track flattens out after the UNC hurdle. Should Virginia clear that hurdle, and barring a magical run by #10 Clemson or #15 North Carolina State, the Hoos will meet either #2 Notre Dame or #7 Virginia Tech.
Notre Dame has looked like the better team. A hiccup against Florida State—which closed its regular season with three consecutive wins—notwithstanding, the Irish have been obliterating opponents over the past couple weeks. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has won nine of 11, but has mostly spent its last couple weeks struggling to close victories against the bottom of the league.
Virginia matches up pretty well against both teams, though the Hoos didn’t have an answer for Keve Aluma in both meetings with the Hokies and are always torched by Notre Dame’s Nate Laszewski.
Making it past this stage is essential if Virginia is to have a chance at an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
Confidence Meter: 4
Championship: Saturday, 8:30 pm
A potential title game could be against half the bracket, of course, but let’s limit this discussion to #1 Duke, #4 Miami and #5 Wake Forest.
Virginia matches up well with Duke, as evidenced by the two close games the teams played. The Blue Devils will come into the tournament with fire in their bellies, motivated by the loss to North Carolina. Duke is regarded as a national title favorite, Virginia resides on the other end of the spectrum, but the Hoos would have a good shot against the Blue Devils.
Miami, which hasn’t had the most convincing end to the season, is the preferred opponent. Virginia beat the Hurricanes twice this season and has won six straight against Jim Larranaga’s squad.
Wake Forest would actually be a tougher opponent. The Deacs beat Virginia earlier this year and have used an explosive offense to get inside the bubble. Steve Forbes and Wake, like Virginia, missed out on a double bye.
But Duke is the most likely title opponent. Should Virginia reach all the way to the championship game, Tony Bennett’s group will actually have a decent chance of victory.
Confidence Meter: 4
Image – Twitter @accmb