Following a tumultuous run of non-conference games that saw Virginia suffer multiple demoralizing losses, the Hoos will plunge into ACC play hoping to build on the positive momentum generated by the Fairleigh Dickinson victory. Non-conference play was not kind to Virginia, but maybe Tony Bennett and Co. can turn things around against a weak ACC.
They’ll get their first chance to do so on Wednesday night. Virginia will welcome Clemson to Charlottesville, just 13 days before traveling south for a rematch. Winning either game will be a difficult task for a struggling group of Wahoos.
Signs of life were visible in the FDU blowout, a convincing 82-49 win. But with the Knights at 0-10 and KenPom’s 340th-ranked team in the nation, anything short of a thunderous victory would have been worrying. Virginia got by on Jayden Gardner’s dominance for the first three-quarters of the game, able to exploit FDU’s lack of size. Repeating that strategy against a bigger Clemson will not be as simple, and the three-point barrage Virginia’s subs rained down over the closing 10 minutes is only a possibility if those players actually play.
So all told, we’re currently in wait-and-see mode. Here’s what to expect from the visiting Tigers.
The opponent
Clemson’s four losses equal Virginia’s tally, but unlike Virginia, the teams that managed to tame the Tigers mostly hail from power conferences. They’ve fallen to power-six opponents West Virginia, Rutgers and Miami, and were also defeated by a very good St. Bonaventure squad.
But, surprisingly, Virginia’s wins are better than Clemson’s. Brad Brownell’s group only has one notable victory, by 14 points over a weak South Carolina team. They’ve also beaten a couple of decent mid-majors in Wofford and Drake.
A glance at the KenPom rankings finds Clemson in the 46th spot, boasting the 28th-best offense but only the 90th-best defense. That strong offense comes by virtue of a 41% three-point percentage, good for fifth in the nation. That will be a problem for a packline defense whose vulnerability has always been the deep shot.
From a personnel perspective, Clemson has a fair amount of talent. A balanced scoring attack is led by 6’10” sophomore forward PJ Hall, who averages 14.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Hall is a big man who can also shoot the three, and will be a challenging matchup for Kadin Shedrick, who needs to stay out of foul trouble.
At the guard spot, the Tigers rally behind David Collins, a 6’4” senior who scores 11.7 points per outing. Al-Amir Dawes and Nick Honor are also back from last year’s team to suit up for the Tigers, and have both performed respectably. All three of Collins, Dawes and Honor are lethal from beyond the arc.
A year ago, Clemson had one of the best defenses in the nation (despite getting routed by Virginia in a dominant Wahoo performance). It’s not so proficient this year, so Virginia will have ample opportunity to muster another solid offensive performance after a great one against FDU.
The game will be a low-scoring one, owing to Virginia’s unsurprising status as the slowest team in the nation and Clemson’s similarly slow tempo.
The prediction
It feels crucial that Virginia wins this game, ridiculous as that sounds with still about three months remaining until the NCAA Tournament. Still, the game is a very important one, a chance to get the ball rolling for the first time this season.
Betting on Virginia basketball is not a wise endeavor, to say the least (unless you bet the under; that’s a guarantee). But in the spirit of making a fool of myself, I’m going to make a stab at predicting the outcome of this game.
And the winner will be… Virginia.
Biased? Yes. Backed by evidence? That’s where things get a little murkier. As referenced above, we really don’t know what we’re going to get with this team. The “on any given night” philosophy has rarely applied so perfectly to a Virginia team; one day the Hoos might drop 44 in a half against Iowa, the next they might score 14 against JMU.
Virginia’s main strength this season has been Jayden Gardner, and Gardner matches up well against Clemson. There’s nobody to match his stature on the Tiger roster (save Hall, who will likely be dealing with Shedrick/Caffaro), and Virginia will do well to exploit that advantage.
Also, the Hoos shot the ball better against FDU. If Bennett plays the three M’s in any significant capacity, Virginia will finally get some output from beyond the arc. That will help both in that threes are worth 150% more than twos and because room inside will free up for Gardner and Shedrick to operate.
At the end of the day, if Clemson hits threes—as they have done all season and as the packline inherently gives up—Virginia will have a rough go of things. But with a home crowd behind them, it’s likely that Virginia notches a second ACC win in what promises to be a tough game.
Image – Virginia Athletics