There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about the Coastal rankings that ESPN produced. They’re based on ESPN’s FPI, and they give the chance for each Coastal team to win the division. Here they are:
Now, these predictions have drawn a ton of criticism since they were published. Many pointed to Virginia Tech’s 49% chance to win the conference and thought it was a joke. On the other end of the spectrum, last year’s Coastal champions lose only a few key players and are given only a 1% chance to repeat.
To be fair though, these percentages take into account the schedule that each team faces. This is why a team like Virginia is seemingly thrown under the bus, when, in reality, they are near the top of the conference. So let’s focus on power rankings, based solely on how good we think each team will be and not the schedule that they face.
1. North Carolina
While the disrespect shown to Virginia may have felt like a slight to the numerous Wahoo fans, the real travesty in these rankings came at the top. The fact that Virginia Tech—a team who holds the 14th and final spot in 247’s 2020 recruiting class rankings—would be ranked ahead of Carolina is ridiculous.
To quote Carolina fans, “Mack is back,” and he’s already making a huge difference. Mack Brown took Carolina from the pits to at least in the conversation, and he’s working magic already on the recruiting front. His upcoming class has ascended to third in the ACC, good for 19th in the nation. And in a year, he’ll be welcoming what is currently the third best class in the nation.
On top of the success in persuading High School players to come to his school, he happens to have some fairly decent players returning who are already in college. Sam Howell will return for his second season under center, and ten of their 11 starters will be coming back. The defense may struggle, but Carolina should still be the Coastal favorites.
2. Virginia
What we have to understand when it comes to this ESPN model is that this is a win-loss estimation, not a measure of the teams themselves. So by the same token, just because I have the Hoos at number two doesn’t mean that I expect them to win the Coastal. It’s a very challenging schedule—Clemson and Louisville as the two Atlantic opponents couldn’t be a worse situation—so another Coastal title is not the most likely outcome. Virginia is one of the best teams in the Coastal, but with the schedule that looms, it’s difficult to imagine another title.
And with Joe Reed, the two Bryce’s, Hasise Dubois, Eli Hanback, and Jordan Mack all leaving, there’s a considerable amount of talent walking out the door. But a good deal stays from the team that won the Coastal last year. In fact, a recent estimation showed that 18 of the 24 starters from last year’s team remain—including the entire O-line. That’s good news, as Brennan Armstrong looks to step into the starting role at quarterback.
We haven’t seen much of him, but when we have seen him it’s nearly all been positive. Armstrong is no Bryce Perkins, but he’s still a good quarterback, more than competent of running an offense. On the other side of the ball, the defense should be as good as ever. Charles Snowden is back for his final year along with some other great players, and Virginia should be stout on the defensive end. So while one of the best teams in the division, ESPN may still be right in its prediction for how good chances are to win the Coastal.
3. Miami
Last year was a disappointment for the Hurricanes. They started off the season in “Week 0,” battling Florida in the only game that week. That near-victory was an exciting start to the season for a fanbase full of anticipation for Manny Diaz’s arrival. The rest of the season didn’t exactly go according to plan, but Miami showed flashes within the rest of the season.
There was the win over Virginia and the rout of Louisville. And despite not really challenging for the Coastal title, their largest margin of defeat was 10 points in conference, with most of those losses being much closer. So Miami has something to build on for Diaz’s second year at the helm. And the addition of Houston transfer D’Eriq King is bound to make a monumental difference and help propel Miami as they look to get back to their old ways.
4. Virginia Tech
I may have defended ESPN on their predictions for Virginia. I’ll do no such thing for their in-state rivals. Honestly, I have no idea where this sudden optimism in the direction of the Hokies is stemming from. Sure, they were one game from champions last year. This year, even if they were the best team in the division—which they’re not—49% is an absolutely absurd number when it comes to taking the Coastal.
If Clemson were in the Coastal I would say the exact same thing. Nobody has a 49% chance of victory in this division. Not Clemson, not Alabama, not LSU, and certainly not Virginia Tech. And it’s not as if they have a stacked recruiting class coming in or anything like that. Oh yeah, they have the worst in the conference.
With all that said though, Virginia Tech is always going to be in the hunt, like it or not. They have a few good players returning on the defensive end, notably Caleb Farley, and will be in the conversation as always. But the preposition that they have a 49% chance to win the division is just backwards.
5. Pittsburgh
Nobody really seems to be talking about Pitt. They don’t have a highly-ranked recruiting class, they finished middle-of-the-pack last year, and, well, they’re Pitt. This is not some crazy football school, this is a place where sports haven’t been that good recently. Heinz field looks empty for games (though in reality, there’s a lot of people in there), and there’s no real star players to speak of for Pitt.
This is why this team is so dangerous. They have a solid core of returning players, back from a team that had every chance to win the Coastal a year ago. If not for the game against Virginia being the first one of the season, and thus a crapshoot, they could very well have won it. Instead, they were relegated to the Quick Lane Bowl against Eastern Michigan. Now though, they’re back and will contend for the title once again.
6. Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets were the one team in this division a year ago that really didn’t have a chance to win it. They should be slightly improved this year with the fifth best recruiting class in the conference coming in. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins is trying to turn the program around, and this class was a good step towards doing so. So while he might not have reformed Georgia Tech yet, they’ll be in it—as everybody always is.
7. Duke
Notice how I’ve said something positive about every team’s chances thus far? Well that’s because every single team has a legitimate chance to take this conference. Duke is no exception, though I wouldn’t exactly throw my eggs into that basket. They weren’t that good last year, and likely won’t be next year either. Clemson grad transfer Chase Brice will boost their offense though, and they’ll compete.