Four reasons that Virginia will beat Duke – And three that they won’t

Last time Duke traveled to Charlottesville, it was for one of the most anticipated games in the whole college basketball season. The Blue Devils were ranked second in the country, and had the single most exciting college basketball player in the country on their side.

The Hoos, meanwhile, had an NBA lottery pick and two other draft picks wearing “Virginia” on their jersey’s. They came into that game ranked third nationally. Duke ended up shooting the lights out of the building in an 81-71 win as Lebron watched from courtside.

This year’s version won’t feature Zion, and it won’t have the best basketball player on the face of the planet in attendance. Rather, it will pit a top ten team, one that is struggling, against one of the hottest teams in the country. It might not draw the same absurdly high number of viewers, but it will provide basketball that is plenty entertaining to the fans who are willing to tune in.

Why Virginia will win

1. The Hoos are hot, Duke is… Not

Undoubtedly, there are very different dynamics occurring throughout each respective fanbase at the moment. Virginia, on the one hand, has won eight of nine, and five in a row. The Hoos may not be dominating their opposition, but they have been doing what they need to do to walk out of the gym with a win.

On the other hand, Duke has failed to walk out with a win two of the last three times. They were the ones being dominated in the loss to NC State, and while rebounding with a nice win over Virginia Tech, what happened at Wake killed any sort of momentum that win might have generated.

Duke led by as much as 12 in the second half, and had an 8 point advantage with 1:45 to go. They proceeded to choke that lead away before getting blown out in the second overtime period. Whereas Virginia has been finding ways to win recently, Duke found a way to lose that one. The downtrodden Blue Devils could very well be stifled by a Virginia team at the heights of its game.

2. Duke’s defense is questionable

In their last three, Duke has given away 88, 64, and 113 (79 in regulation) points, respectively. A team that was once in the top five in terms of defensive efficiency has now fallen to fourteenth after that stretch. Against NC State, they allowed 1.15 points per possession; against the Deacs, it was 1.17.

We’ll see if that plays a role on Saturday night. Virginia has an unfortunate track record of not taking advantage against weak defensive teams. That said, it’s entirely possible that Kihei Clark and Mamadi Diakite wreak havoc in the ranks of this young Duke team.

3. Duke is young

Speaking of the youth of Duke, that’s certain to play a factor in this game. Last year, it wasn’t as much of an impact, even though it should have been, as that Duke team consisted almost entirely of freshmen (at least in the starting lineup). It didn’t though, because the first game was played in Cameron where the home fans could help them through, and by the second they knew what to expect.

This time around should be different. Duke starts three freshman, none of whom have experienced anything remotely close to the level of the vaunted packline. On top of that, they’re coming off that loss to a Wake Forest team that can be described as subpar, at best. The mental state, as well as the inexperience, will play a big role.

4. The Hoos match up well

It may be a surprise to read it, given the high praise that so many of these Duke players have received. But yeah, Virginia actually matches up fairly well with the seventh-ranked team in the country. For starters, you have Kihei Clark and Tre Jones, which will surely be an incredible battle to keep tabs on throughout and will hugely affect the outcome.

Then comes Mamadi Diakite and Vernon Carey Jr., one of the best defensive players in the nation against one of the best offensive ones. Braxton Key will get paired with Wendell Moore, who definitely needs somebody physical to stop him. The remaining two guards, Cassius Stanley and Jordan Goldwire, will be matched up with Casey Morsell and Tomas Woldetensae.

Morsell should be able to deal with Stanley, and Woldo should equally be okay with Goldwire. That’s just the starters, but you get the gist. For every Duke player, there is a Wahoo to meet him.

Why Duke will win

1. They’re much deeper than Virginia

Putting the stat sheets of the two teams that will be facing off in JPJ next to each other and looking at the minutes column is slightly terrifying. Virginia only has seven players that average double-digit minutes. All of those seven exceed 22 minutes per outing.

Duke’s figures are markedly different. Duke has 10 players playing north of 13 minutes per game. Ten. And all of them play legitimate minutes in each and every game.

This could certainly be a factor. With seven of Virginia’s players running around the court, Coach K has the ability to get fresh legs into the game at will.

2. Duke’s simply more skilled

If you believe that this Virginia team has more talent than Duke, you’re deluding yourself. Duke is a much more talented team player-by-player, than Virginia. This is not to say that they’re a better team. I’d be the first to tell you that the Hoos are playing much better hoops right now.

But in terms of skill, the Blue Devils simply just have more. At point guard is Tre Jones, who’s in the midst of a fantastic season, averaging 16 points, 4 assists, and 6.5 rebounds per game. Their other All-ACC caliber player is Vernon Carey Jr, who averages 17.6 points and 8.8 boards.

Without even mentioning the likes of Cassius Stanley (12 pts, 4 rebs) or Matthew Hurt (10.5 pts, 4 rebs), it’s clear that Duke just has a great collection of players that could overpower the Hoos.

3. They’re very efficient on the offensive end

Ranking ninth on KenPom in AdjO, they also hit 35 of their threes. Those are two pretty intimidating numbers. They also average 83.3 points per game. Sounds nice, right?

Yeah, it does, and it’s a far cry from Virginia’s 57.6. Still, there’s no way that the Blue Devils score that many, although they did manage to score 81 last year. How did they score 81? They rained threes down on the unsuspecting Wahoos from every part of the court.

Again, that’s likely not happening, but Duke’s offensive efficiency against that packline will make an interesting matchup.

Duke at Virginia tips at 6:00 ET on ESPN.