The way Virginia’s win over Notre Dame on Tuesday ended was befitting of the season that predated it. Perhaps too much so. Virginia, with the ball and a chance to ice the game, missed a three. A wide-open three that Kihei Clark should have hit. Notre Dame then took the ball down the floor, looking for all the world that they were about to score and head back to South Bend with a win. But Virginia came up with a stop to earn the victory.
It was Virginia’s season in a nutshell: Bad shooting, shaky offense, but great defense. And, in the end, a win. The reward that comes at the end of every game. The end that justifies the means.
For Virginia players, they have to hope that the end was indeed satisfying enough to forgive what happened before the horn sounded. Because most of them—with a couple of exceptions (more on that later)—did not impress.
Maybe that’s just because Hoo fans everywhere were suffering from a good degree of letdown after the offensive fireworks that went off in Louisville, KY on Saturday. Either way, the offensive display was far from good. On the flip side, it was a solid defensive performance, although not without its issues.
No matter how ugly it was at times though, Virginia picked up an essential home win over a team also in the hunt for that elusive double-bye. With the win, and a Syracuse loss to NC State, Virginia regained sole possession of fourth. NC State and Syracuse lie a game behind, with Notre Dame, Pitt, and Boston College still clinging to hope. Let’s break down the three teams that still have a realistic shot at claiming fourth.
Virginia (8-5)
Remaining games: @North Carolina, Boston College, @Pitt, @Virginia Tech, Duke, @Miami, Louisville
The Hoos haven’t looked dominant at any point thus far. They have, however, won games. They finally closed out a close game in the Notre Dame win, and put themselves in the driver’s seat for fourth. Mamadi Diakite was absolutely fantastic in the win. He won’t earn as much praise for his performance as Tomas Woldetensae did over the weekend, even though he probably should.
Mamadi was assertive, taking the ball in the post for buckets. After missing one long jumper badly, he didn’t try it again, finally playing at the level that so many knew he could play at. A revamped Diakite could do wonders for Virginia. He could pull the Hoos through the tough stretches in which they will undoubtedly go through as they struggle to score.
Virginia holds the reins in the race for fourth, and is unlikely to relinquish them. It’s a tough schedule, with four road games, and two home games against the top of the conference. The Hoos need to go 4-2 in those and beat BC at home to be sure of the fourth ACC spot and, more importantly, an NCAA tournament bid. They might not have to, but nobody else is touching them at 13-7.
NC State (7-6)
Remaining games: @Boston College, Duke, Florida State, @North Carolina, Pitt, @Duke, Wake
It was absolutely instrumental that the Pack defeated Syracuse on Tuesday. A loss would have meant they had a losing record in the conference, and would have put them out of reasonable reach for the fourth spot. Even now, it’s a steep slope to climb. The Wolfpack probably have to grab a win over Duke or Florida State. More likely, they won’t, and right there that’s three more losses. At best, that spells an 11-9 record in the ACC, and in all likelihood prevents them from getting the fourth spot.
Hope for NC State is mostly focused around the guard play of CJ Bryce, Markell Johnson, and Devon Daniels. The three of them combine to average about 50% of the State offense. Not bad, especially when you add forward DJ Funderburk to the mix. They have a solid core of players that is relatively consistent.
Kevin Keatts is going to need those core players to be a lot more than consistent if they’re going to to weather the storm coming their way; he’s going to need them to be fantastic. Don’t count them out, but with a tough remaining schedule, State is facing a rapid uphill climb.
Syracuse (7-6)
Remaining games: @Florida State, @Louisville, Georgia Tech, @Pitt, North Carolina, @Boston College, @Miami
While somewhat understandable due to Elijah Hughes’s injury and resulting 3 total minutes, Syracuse’s loss to NC State was a big one. A win would have kept them on par with Virginia, but a loss puts them a game back with arguably the toughest schedule of the three. If the Orange take either of their back-to-back games on the road against FSU and Louisville, it would be massive. With that said, it’s very unlikely.
Florida State will be on the war path after losing in the final minutes to Duke in a game with some questionable calls down the stretch (looking at you, Matthew Hurt). Unless Syracuse gets hot at just the right time, they’re unlikely to defeat a very stingy FSU defense. The same goes with Louisville, who plays about as good defense as FSU with a whole lot better offense.
If by some mischance the Orange salvage a win from one of those two, there’s the small matter of three more away games. It’s unlikely that Syracuse goes better than .500 in the remainder of their games. Even 4 wins out of 7 would put them at 11-9. But who knows? 11-9 could well be enough for fourth in the ACC this year.
So who takes fourth?
The question you’ve all been waiting for. You’ve read your way through about 900 words to get here — or maybe you just scrolled straight through to the bottom. Regardless, here we are. After looking at the schedules of these three teams in contrast to how they’re playing, I’ve come to a final determination about who will take it.
Keep in mind that in college basketball this year, literally anything could happen, and it’s not smart to bet on anything. With that said, I’d be willing to put a few bucks on the Hoos taking fourth. Yes, they’ve looked shaky at times, very much so, but then again so have the other teams. NC State lost a couple of weeks ago on home court to the very same Carolina team that just got trounced by Wake. Syracuse, on the other hand, has collected 10 losses already.
Recently, Virginia has been the most consistent of the three. By my judgement, they also have the easiest schedule, and perhaps most importantly are starting to build confidence. Oh, and they have the best dang coach in all of college basketball. My money’s on the Hoos to take fourth place and the double bye.