After the events of January 11th, Virginia and Virginia Tech were tied for fourth in the ACC at 3-2. Since then, Virginia has as many wins as Virginia Tech does losses: Eight. This one simple statistic shows just how big the gap is between the way both teams have been playing.
Virginia, a team whose play has been steadily rising, is at the peak of their game, and sits just two games out of first in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have been steadily declining, and are at the utter depths of their game, lying two games out of 14th in the ACC.
Despite the stark contrast in the current play of these two teams, there’s reason to think that it could be a very interesting game. After all, it is Hoos vs Hokies. Anything could happen.
Virginia Tech can’t defend
Yes, anything can happen. But one thing that will probably happen is that Virginia will continue their recent offensive production. The Hoos have scored in the 70s in two of their last five games, which is two more than anybody would have dared hope for a few weeks ago. This uptick in scoring, met with the lackluster Virginia Tech defense, is a good sign for Wednesday’s game.
In their last six games, the Hokies have allowed an average of 80 points per game. Granted, their game against Miami went to triple overtime, so the resulting 102 points allowed can’t really be blamed on bad defense. Still, 80 is a big number regardless of whether it’s 100% accurate or not.
No, the Hoos are not about to waltz into Cassell Coliseum and drop 80. But the revamped Virginia offense could be primed to score a lot of points on Wednesday night. But then again, they probably won’t need to score a lot of points to win the game.
The other side of the ball
The Virginia defense has been its normal stout self this year. Allowing only 57.7 points per game, they rank fourth on kenpom.com. The Hokies, meanwhile, are scoring 70.6 per game. You don’t need to look very far to find what will happen when these two meet; just look back to the first meeting between these two.
Virginia Tech only scored 39 points that game, and it’s no wonder why. They only have two players averaging double digits this year. Without those other options, they face a tall task in breaking through the packline.
But the same thing that stops them from being able to score with any sort of consistency against Virginia may also give them a way to do it.
Their offense runs on the back of Landers Nolley II, who averages 16.7 points and 6.1 rebounds. Their next best scorer averages only 10.4 per game. This means that Nolley is the do-it-all player for his team, something that could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.
On the one hand, without other scorers for Virginia to be scared of, Nolley will get a lot of attention from the Hoos. This could allow them to easily shut him down.
On the other, more pessimistic hand, one-man shows have been very effective against Virginia in the past. Nolley already showed that he could deal damage against the Hoos when he scored 18 in the first meeting. He could well do the same again.
So who wins?
It always seems as if games in Cassell Coliseum between Hoos and Hokies are close. It does seem as if the close ones tilt in the wrong way though, the most obvious example of this being the infamous ball-on-the rim incident with London Perrantes.
All signs point to another close game this time around. Virginia has a track record of nail-biting games this season. In addition, the Hokies are desperately searching for something positive to stop their free-fall, and a win over their bitter rivals would be just that.
So expect another close game. But Virginia, although in a lot of close ones, has recently been winning them. They’re also undoubtedly the better team, so will likely be playing from ahead in the latter stages. As such, the Hoos should be able to take the win in a close one.