Virginia’s stunning display in a 35-point victory over Clemson last week reverberated throughout the college basketball world, earning the praise of many and vaulting the Hoos up five spots in the AP Poll. Then Clemson took a trip to Georgia Tech and came away with an 18-point loss in which they trailed by as many as 22.
Welp.
That result certainly puts a damper on the celebrations that sprang from Virginia’s own victory over Clemson. The question that begs answering, of course, is whether Clemson is simply weaker than advertised or whether Virginia and Georgia Tech are just that good.
The answer, as is often the case in these situations, falls somewhere in the middle. Clemson is clearly not the top-15 team that they were viewed as after the first couple months of the season, but neither are they are a bad team. Virginia and Georgia Tech are just playing basketball at a higher level right now.
The difference in the way the two games played out is also important to note. Virginia tore Clemson apart from start to finish, stretching their lead to 39 at one point before the eventual 85-50 final score. Georgia Tech was in a much closer game, with Clemson cutting the lead to 12 at one point midway through the second half.
So I think it’s safe to conclude that the Virginia shellacking of Clemson is still an impressive feat, just maybe not to the level that we previously thought.
Regardless of how us fans perceive it, the win had the effect of raising Virginia to 5-0 and first place in the ACC. They’ll look to maintain that unbeaten record by hosting Georgia Tech at home. Let’s take a look at the visiting Yellow Jackets.
The opponent
Georgia Tech had an inauspicious start to the season, falling to Georgia State and Mercer in quick succession. While surprising results, Head Coach Josh Pastner’s brilliant decision to practice without contact early on was most definitely a contributing factor.
Pastner scrapped that idea after the embarrassing pair of losses, and since then Georgia Tech has played very solid basketball. They’re 7-1 in the time following that decision, the sole loss coming on the road to Florida State. The Yellow Jackets stake claim to wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina in conference play, in addition to the recent defeat of Clemson.
Their current five-game win streak has come largely on the back of improved defense. Georgia Tech is 7-0 in games where they hold their opponent under 70 points, and though they still reside at 88th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, they’ve shored up some of the gaps.
That said, glaring holes remain unfilled. Georgia Tech has the 302nd worst three-point defense in the nation, allowing 37.5% from beyond the arc. Given Virginia’s recent shooting prowess, that’s a major warning sign for Josh Pastner’s defense.
The Hoos should also find it relatively easy to work the ball inside. Georgia Tech’s guards are generally pretty average defenders, and it shouldn’t be too much of an issue getting around them. Once inside though, powerful senior forward Moses Wright will be there to meet them.
Wright is going to be a handful, and we can only hope (probably in vain) that Jay Huff will avoid getting into foul trouble attempting to deal with him. But Georgia Tech doesn’t really have another big, so the Hoos should be able to maneuver around Wright.
The way to beat this Georgia Tech defense is to just keep the ball moving and wait for the gaps to open up—because make no mistake, they will.
But it will be a much more difficult struggle on the other side of the court, where Georgia Tech possesses a fairly potent offense. Michael Devoe and Jose Alvarado headline a talented backcourt, with Jordan Usher and Bubba Parham rounding out the group. In particular, 6-5 junior Devoe has been stellar in conference play, averaging 20 points on 55.2% deep shooting. Alvarado is averaging 15 points and 3.8 assists in the league, and Usher is averaging 12 points.
To be fair though, those stats all took a big boost when Devoe, Alvarado, and Usher combined for 51 points against Clemson. Moses Wright added 21, making quite clear that he and the three guards will be the players to watch in this game.
Even with Virginia’s improved defense, the quartet of Yellow Jackets could cause some serious problems for Virginia. The Jackets are a good shooting team all around, but they struggle mightily in rebounding and turnover/assist ratio. Controlling the glass and winning the turnover battle are two things that will go a long way toward a UVA victory.
The prediction
On paper, the odds of winning this game are significantly tilted toward Virginia. The Hoos rolled out a revamped defense and a surging offense last week, and are finally hitting their stride after a slow start. They’ve also won five games in a row to jump to the top spot in the ACC standings.
And yet, Georgia Tech has been impressive as well. They’re on their own five game win streak, and much like Virginia, cruised to a win over Clemson. Georgia Tech’s backcourt was heralded as one of the best in the conference coming into the season, and over the last few weeks they’ve made a convincing argument as to why they should be in that conversation. On top of that, Moses Wright at his best is a force to be reckoned with that I’m not entirely sure Virginia is prepared to deal with.
So yes, I think this is going to be a tight game for most of the 40 minutes.
But when all is said and done it’s tough to picture a Virginia loss. The Hoos have dropped 80+ points in two consecutive games, and with the stout defense seemingly making a return, Georgia Tech will be hard-pressed to score.
With that in mind, I’m expecting the Hoos to take home their 14th consecutive ACC victory.
Image – Virginia Athletics