With a core of solid returners and some exciting new additions, this year’s Virginia basketball team was heralded preseason as one of the best teams in the nation.
Credence was added to that label after an 89-54 blowout of Towson to start the season, and suddenly the Hoos were being stamped left and right as favorites for the Final Four. The hype was real, and there was no reason to doubt a team that had just scored 1.44 points per possession on the way to a 35-point win.
But that excitement petered out very quickly after the second game. Virginia fell to WCC foe San Francisco, prompting a wave of people to designate the opener as “fool’s gold” and renounce the claims of greatness they had made just a few days prior. The thrashing at the hands of Gonzaga not long after didn’t help the cause.
Regardless of the severity of each individual’s reactions to the loss, collective expectations were understandably lowered. The general sense at that point was that the Hoos would still be a good team, but not for quite some time.
Well two months have elapsed since the San Francisco game and Virginia has quite clearly turned the corner. The Hoos ascended to eighth in the AP Poll last week after wins over Clemson and Georgia Tech, and have since crushed Syracuse by 23.
We’ve seen steady improvement over the last few weeks, improvement that has culminated in a 7-0 ACC record and a spot atop the conference. The Hoos have come a long way in just eight weeks, but room for improvement remains.
Things that have improved
The first thing that comes to mind on the subject of things Virginia is doing well right now is shooting the ball. The Hoos are shooting the rock at an exceptional 49% from three over the last four games, a notable increase from the 34.7% they shot before then.
Sam Hauser’s upgraded three-point shooting is a big part of that, the Marquette transfer hitting the deep ball at a stunning 65% over the last three games.
His progress has paralleled Jay Huff’s, who has finally solidified himself as a consistent player. Huff’s career has been plagued with foul trouble and inconsistency, but the fifth year is now producing on a regular basis.
He has scored in double figures in all seven conference games, averaging 16.1 points per game against the ACC. Huff has been able to get it done both from behind the arc and from inside, and the foul trouble issue that used to keep him off the floor has vanished.
Other players that have improved are Casey Morsell and Reece Beekman, while Trey Murphy has remained steady. Virginia’s offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, and that is the main factor in the recent win streak and resulting climb up the rankings.
Things that can still improve
Like the offense, Virginia’s defense has taken some impressive strides recently. But the Hoos are still hovering just outside the KenPom defensive efficiency top 10.
That’s certainly not a terrible place to be, but it is a drop from Virginia’s typical spot atop the metric. With that said, it was always expected that the refurbished offense would come with a small defensive sacrifice.
And yet, even with how much of a jump it’s already taken, this defense still has room to grow. The individual performances are much better, but there is still the occasional breakdown or lackluster half.
The other slight worry that has developed is that Virginia might have trouble scoring when they run dry from three.
It’s no coincidence that the recent offensive explosions and amazing shooting have come at the same time. Obviously, the unconscious shooting from three is one of the main reasons why Virginia has reached new heights on the offensive front.
But look at the games in which Virginia did not shoot it well from three. While the Hoos have enough suitable options inside, they struggle getting to the rim off the dribble.
At some point there will come a game when Virginia shoots it poorly. The guards need to improve in getting to the rim and finishing in a half-court setting, or points may be tough to come by when the shooting dries up.
The ceiling
ACC regular season champions? ACC tournament champions? National champions?
After that San Francisco loss you would have been hard-pressed to find anybody who believed in the third option. Now that is a reasonable possibility, if not one that the presence of Gonzaga and Baylor makes unlikely.
As for the first two, a much higher probability of a favorable outcome exists. The ACC regular season title race has been largely whittled down to Virginia and Florida State by this point, though the likes of North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Louisville all still have the potential to make a run.
The Seminoles held serve against Miami in another convincing win, so Virginia currently holds a one-game lead over them and two games over the rest of the field. The Hoos remain in pole position in the ACC though.
The tournament title is, of course, very much in play as well, and national glory is still not out of the question. Virginia is playing like a top-five team right now, and they might be able to crack the top three eventually. Yet with Gonzaga and Baylor still looming over the rest of the nation it’s tough to see Virginia ever becoming a genuine title favorite.
Either way, the Hoos are trending in the right direction and still have plenty of room to grow.
Image – Virginia Athletics