After coming away from a trip to Georgia Tech with their 10th ACC win, Virginia will return home to host North Carolina. The Hoos ground out the victory over the Yellow Jackets on Wednesday, finding a way to win amongst difficult circumstances.
Now they will go toe-to-toe with a Carolina team playing their best basketball of the season. The contrast in styles will make for an interesting game between two ACC powerhouses.
The opponent
Carolina took down Duke at Cameron Indoor last Saturday, but the program was blemished soon after by a video of starters Day’Ron Sharpe and Armando Bacot partying without wearing masks.
Their midweek game against Miami was called off because of the incident, and now Carolina has to face the toughest team in the ACC after a week full of controversy.
But off-court issues aside, the Heels have been playing much better basketball recently. They’ve won five of their last seven, their two losses coming on the road at Florida State and Clemson. In general, Carolina has struggled on the road in ACC play, going a mere 3-4 away from home against conference opponents.
The Duke game was an outlier though, and not just because the Heels won on the road. They shot an astounding 67% from three in the win, going 10 for 15 from deep. For context, the Tobacco Road residents are averaging 32% on the season (254th in the nation), and prior to that game had not shot better than 45% all year.
It’s hard to imagine that same shooting carrying over to JPJ. Still, that they are capable of it should be acknowledged.
The other big positive for Roy Williams coming out of the Duke trip was Caleb Love’s performance. Love was supposed to be the star guard for the Heels, this year’s iteration of Cole Anthony. Yet he’s meandered his way to 32% shooting from the field on the season and more turnovers than assists.
So when he broke out for 25 points and seven assists on 9-16 shooting against Duke, Williams must have been elated.
Good, consistent play from Caleb Love is the final piece that would complete this team. They already possess the 33rd most efficient defense in the nation and a solid trio of big men. Love just might be the thing to tie it all together.
His matchup with Kihei Clark should be riveting, as both players are coming off arguably their best performances of the season.
But Carolina is also going to need good play out of those big men. Garrison Brooks, despite being named ACC Preseason POY, has underperformed considerably. Last year he was about the only bright spot in a Carolina uniform; this year he’s barely scoring in double figures.
The good news for the Heels is that he’s not alone in the frontcourt. Armando Bacot is having a much-improved season, while Day’Ron Sharpe is good for the occasional huge game.
The Heels do most of their damage in the paint, which is a concern for a Wahoo defense that surrenders most of its points in the same area. That, and the fact that Carolina is currently playing their best basketball of the season, are the real worries for this game.
The prediction
The matchups to be found in this game are truly fascinating. Caleb Love vs Kihei Clark pits two very different point guards against each other, both fighting to rise to the levels expected of them.
In the post, Jay Huff and Sam Hauser going up against Bacot, Brooks, and Sharpe could also go either way. Expect to see more of Kadin Shedrick as Tony Bennett looks for ways to combat the Carolina bigs on defense.
Less notable, though no less intriguing, is what happens between each team’s less prominent guards. Casey Morsell and Reece Beekman have both struggled in recent outings, while Leaky Black and Kerwin Walton, among others, make up an unconvincing UNC backcourt. If any of these guards have a break-out game it could tilt the balance.
The one matchup where one side is sure to triumph is Trey Murphy and whoever Roy Williams sticks on him. Murphy is one of the best three-point shooters in the nation, and has recently shown a previously unseen proficiency at attacking the basket.
He’s also matured into a lockdown defender in just a few months on grounds. He should win his battles on both sides of the floor on the way to another big night.
There have been scattered flashes of potential all season, but Carolina has failed to find the level of consistency they need to contend with Virginia. The Hoos may not be playing perfect basketball either, but they have found ways to win even when not at the top of their game.
The Heels are trending in the right direction, but that’s simply not enough to take down a Virginia team that has proven time and time again that it is the ACC’s alpha.
Image – Virginia Athletics