This year’s numbers are stark in comparison to last year’s; 53.5 ppg, 25% from three, 69% from the charity stripe, 134th in AdjO… They paint a bleak picture. In fact, the AdjO (per kenpom.com), is the worst for a Virginia team since 2010-11, when they ranked 155th. It gets worse; UVA has failed to score more than 65 points this season, and has been held under 50 four times. And this all comes against a rather weak non-conference schedule in which the Hoos should have been exceeding 70 or 80 points every game. So, yes, there is reason for worry. But I’m here to tell you that there’s still cause for hope. Let’s take a deeper dive into the UVA offense.
The Big Men
Coming into the season, Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key, and Jay Huff were expected to be a three-headed monster down low for the Virginia offense. And that has been true, to a degree. With Braxton being sidelined with a wrist injury for the past few games (there are reports he’ll be back against Stony Brook on Wednesday), the burden inside was left on the shoulders of Mamadi and Jay.
Mamadi put the team on his back in the first half against Purdue… And then promptly dropped it, going scoreless in the second half. Yet the first half is a beaming indicator of what is to come. Diakite looked able to score at will, and was the only reason the Hoos stayed in the game. His ability to put the ball on the floor, Deandre Hunter-esque, and take it to the basket is a great attribute. Mamadi can also hit the outside shot and is a good rebounder. He’s the player to build this team around.
Jay Huff is not as talented as Diakite. However, with his 7″ 1′ frame, he can wreak havoc as well. Huff is more suited to getting rebounds and putting them back up or catching lobs. He’s shown some proficiency in the post, and he can also shoot from deep. Jay is looking good but needs to take a little bit more control. He only takes about six shots per game, a number that should be closer to double digits.
Finally, the absence of Braxton Key cannot be overstated. Key is a massive part of this Virginia offense, and not just in a scoring perspective. He’s also a fantastic rebounder, leading the Hoos with 8.3 per game. His return from injury will help spark a team that seemed to be on the uptick after the UNC game.
UVA’s “big three” down low are 1-2-3 for the Hoos in scoring and rebounds this year. They have been and will continue to be an integral part of Tony Bennett’s offense. Also, with it looking like the three-point shooting has returned, there will be more room for them to operate down low, which is all the better for the Hoos.
The Little Dudes
Calling Casey Morsell little might be a bit of a hyperbole but let’s be real, Kihei Clark is little enough for both of them. Unlike their taller teammates, UVA’s point guards are not expected to be primary scorers. Their area of influence lies more on the defensive side of the ball, there’s no getting around it. That’s not to say that they can’t make a big impact on offense, though.
Casey has shown definite flashes that he can score the ball (see: State, Arizona). Every game, the freshman seems to make at least one tough basket. He’s a big, strong player with a good first step. He has big things to come in his future, but it’s understandable that he would be inconsistent in his first couple of months at the D-1 level. Casey’s time as Virginia’s leading scorer will come. For now, he’s doing a good job in his current role. And it’s telling that he’s averaging just over 8 shots a game. This means that Tony Bennett has given him the green light and expects him to start knocking down more and more of those soon. As such, expect Morsell’s place to shift from role player to lead scorer in the near future.
Clark, on the other hand, is perfectly fine where he is. He scores a respectable 8.4 points per game, but that’s not his principal function in this offense. Kihei is a facilitator, and a very good one. Unsurprisingly, he has led Virginia in assists in every game while averaging 5 per outing. Clark doesn’t need to be a highlight reel machine, and he doesn’t need to stuff stat sheets. What he does need to be–and has been for the most part–is a calming presence in the backcourt. We should feel comfortable when Kihei has the ball, confident that he will make a good, smart play. So far this season, that has been the case.
The Three-Point Threats
Calling either of these guys a “three-point threat” might have been a joke for most of the season, but bear with me. All of the aforementioned players are capable of shooting the three-ball, and at a high percentage. Yet for Kody Stattmann and Tomas Woldetensae, that’s pretty much the only thing they can do. Neither was blessed with extraordinary athletic ability. So for either of them to make an impact, they’re gonna need to be able to knock ’em down from deep. That theory hasn’t worked out so well thus far.
On the season, they’re a combined 8/43, or 18.6%. There’s no sugarcoating that number. It’s impossible to argue that they have been effective overall. The stats speak for themselves. There is, however, a glimmer of light at the end of that tunnel.
The duo was a combined 4/8 against Carolina, banging in 4 out of Virginia’s 6 threes. Woldetensae accounted for three of those, going 3/4. Before we get ahead of ourselves, it must be acknowledged that this is an outlier in a vast sea of much less desirable results. That doesn’t stop anybody from thinking about how great it would be if those two could keep it up. And there is reason to think that they might be able to. Woldetensae shot a scorching 47.6% from behind the arc as a JUCO player en route to hitting 100 threes in a season. For Stattmann, there are reports that he makes shots in practice, hence Tony Bennett’s willingness to let him shoot.
Let’s hope that they can keep up the momentum and start knocking the threes down with consistency. This pair has the potential to be a real asset for this team.
The Role Players
Now that we’ve covered the main parts of Virginia’s rotation, it’s time to talk about the role players. On top of the aforementioned seven players, there are three more players that have seen time in the thick of a game: Justin McKoy, Francisco Caffaro, and Chase Coleman. All three are freshmen (with Caffaro being a redshirt), and none of them have seen many minutes, but each has been brought in to play in tight games, with varying results.
Coleman has not been very effective when he’s been in, but that’s okay. Tony Bennett doesn’t intend for him to score while he’s in. In a nutshell, the recruited walk-on is only out there to give Kihei Clark some rest. Granted, Coleman has scored on occasion–with the most memorable a big three-pointer against Arizona State–but that’s really not his purpose. All he’s brought on to do is rest Clark, and maybe provide something.
Similarly, Francisco Caffaro was not expected to score much either… And then UNC happened. In 21 minutes, Caffaro went for 10 points and 7 rebounds, all three of which are career highs. He looked like a monster inside, the seven-footer finally looking it. Now, let’s keep on planet earth here. Caffaro is not going to continue at that rate of production. What he can do is provide 10-15 minutes off the bench, taking the pressure off other players and providing them with rest. 5 points and 5 rebounds per game could go a long way.
This is also the case with Justin McKoy. McKoy is the definition of a role player, somebody who comes on for limited minutes but plays as hard as he possibly can in those minutes. A recent comparison might be Isaiah Wilkins; perhaps not the most gifted player, but somebody who scraps for loose balls and leaves it all on the floor for the Hoos. He has the potential to grow his game, but for now, a limited role suits him best.
If the Hoos are going to be a good team on offense this season, all these pieces need to start coming together. There’s certainly reason to think that they will, and now we just get to sit back and watch it all play out.