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With four games left in the regular season, Virginia is in pretty good shape in terms of its NCAA Tournament resume. Winners of seven out of the last eight, the Hoos have gone from the far reaches of the bubble to a comfortable spot inside it.

They average a nine-seed between all the projected brackets out there, both from real and self-proclaimed bracketologists. Despite being in a fairly comfortable position, the relatively tough schedule that faces the Hoos the rest of the way could definitely cause a late-season collapse and a resulting trip to the NIT.

With that said, let’s take a look at some of the possible scenarios that could take place, and how likely Virginia would be to go dancing with each.

Scenario One: 4-0 the rest of the way

If Virginia were to win out in the regular season they would find themselves with a very high NCAA Tournament seed. Regardless of what happened in the ACC Tournament, the Hoos would be absolutely guaranteed to make the tourney. They would own wins over all top three teams in the conference, although all three would have occurred in JPJ.
NCAAT Probability (out of 10): 10

Scenario Two: 3-1 with loss to Duke/Louisville

Let’s assume that Duke and Louisville are interchangeable, as they’re right next to each other in both rankings and ACC standings. This scenario, as well, would essentially clinch an NCAAT bid. The Hoos wouldn’t have picked up any bad losses, and would have added a high-quality win. Even with a loss to NC State in Greensboro, it would be a shock if Virginia was left out of the bracket.
NCAAT Probability: 9

Scenario Three: 2-2 with losses to Duke and Louisville

This is where it starts to get a little bit more interesting. The Hoos would have taken care of business on the road against Miami and Virginia Tech, but wouldn’t have added that big win either. Without a win in the conference tournament, Wahoo fans might be in for a nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. With one, they should be okay.
NCAAT Probability: 6
w/ one ACCT win: 7.5

Scenario Four: 2-2 with one loss to Miami/VT and one to Duke/Louisville

Assuming—as we did for Duke and Louisville—that Miami and Virginia Tech are essentially interchangeable, this would present a very interesting situation. Virginia would be owners of a truly bad loss to a six-win ACC team, but would also stake claim to a top-ten win. This is probably preferable to “scenario three,” as the big win would likely carry more weight in the long run. However, a quarterfinal win in the ACCT would go a long way towards a stress-free Selection Sunday.
NCAAT Probability: 6
w/ one ACCT win: 7.5

Scenario Five: 2-2 with wins over Duke and Louisville

This is the most unlikely of all of them, but it presents a number of intriguing questions, so I’ll talk about it anyway. Here we would truly get to see whether the committee values big wins or bad losses more. Losing to two teams that are hovering just above the level of total suckiness would be bad, yes. But turning down a team with wins over three top-ten teams is near impossible. A win over NC State would probably guarantee an NCAAT bid, but a loss and the selection show would be a nail-biting affair.
NCAAT Probability: 7
w/ one ACCT win: 8

Scenario Six: 1-3 with win over Duke/Louisville

This would most likely put Virginia on the outside looking in as they traveled to Greensboro. Without two wins over the top of the conference to cover them up, the two bad losses would be glaring spots on the resume. Virginia would almost definitely need two wins in the conference tourney.
NCAAT Probability: 4
w/ one ACCT win: 5
w/ two ACCT wins: 6.5

Scenario Seven: 0-4 or 1-3 with win over Miami/VT

These two situations are combined as the same thing would almost definitely need to happen to get the Hoos into the big dance: An automatic bid. These would both leave the Hoos with bad losses and no impressive wins to show for it, save the earlier one over FSU. The chances of getting a nod by the selection committee would be incredibly slim. Virginia would need the automatic bid that comes with an ACCT championship.
NCAAT Probability: 2
w/ one ACCT win: 3
w/ two ACCT wins: 4

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