Virginia will kick off their title defense with a matchup against 13th-seeded Ohio, the game set to tip at 7:15 PM EST Saturday on truTV. It will take place inside Indiana University’s Assembly Hall, a venue that Virginia has never played at.
The Hoos will be without one player after a positive COVID-19 test knocked them out of the ACC Tournament. Speculation is rife that Casey Morsell is the unlucky one, and further comments by Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim have given some credence to that idea.
Whatever the case, the positive test significantly altered Virginia’s schedule for the tournament. The Hoos will have a team practice Friday morning, and then travel to the Hoosier state, where they will have to test again before driving to Bloomington for a practice Saturday before the 7:15 tip.
These disturbances could serve to put Virginia at a slight competitive disadvantage. Tony Bennett will have to pull his team together in what limited time he has, because the Hoos have drawn a dangerous Ohio squad in the first round.
Breaking down the Bobcats
Ohio owns a 16-7 record, including a fifth-place finish in the MAC at 9-5. They’ve won nine of 10, and look to be playing their best basketball of the year.
Of those 23 results, only one stands out. That would be a two-point road loss to Illinois, way back in November. Both teams have evolved quite a bit since then, of course, but the Bobcats had the Illini faithful sweating buckets on an otherwise unremarkable Friday afternoon.
Ohio kept that one close by virtue of an explosive offense that ranks 30th in the nation on KenPom. But they came up short on the other end of the floor, their 178th-ranked defense short-circuiting as usual.
Virginia has not played a team with a lower defensive rating since January 13, when they dropped 80 on Notre Dame. The ACC hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet this year, but the Hoos will find Ohio’s defense a lot more forgiving than what they’ve become accustomed to.
The defending national champs should have a fairly easy run of things when trying to score. Ohio allows its opponents to get in the lane, and Virginia’s guards will look to exploit that vulnerability. If Kihei Clark can get into a rhythm offensively and force the defense to collapse on him, it will free up Virginia’s collection of three-point shooters.
The Hoos may hold the decided edge with the ball in their hands, but a weaker-than-usual packline defense may break under the pressure that it will be applied with.
Let’s start with Jason Preston. The 6-4 junior guard averages 16.6 points and 7.2 assists per game. He shoots field goals at a 53% clip and threes at 41%, though oddly connects on only 59% of tries from the charity stripe. If you’ve heard anything about Ohio at this point, it will probably have been focused on Preston and the danger he poses.
Think Ty Jerome, but with a quicker first step. Preston may not possess all of Jerome’s craftiness, but he’s not far off, and his speed is miles above what Jerome displayed during his three years in C’Ville. This is not to say that Preston is better than Jerome, just to provide a comparison for the leader of Virginia’s first round opponent.
Reece Beekman will likely draw the matchup against Preston. Trey Murphy would be option two, but Beekman has been the better on-ball defender recently, and as Beekman is just an inch shorter than Preston, Murphy’s added height is not required.
Ohio goes through Preston the majority of the time, but the rest of the team is capable of moving the ball on their own. Lunden McDay is a solid guard in his own right, Mark Sears can get to the rim effectively, and Miles Brown is a decent three-point shooter. That rounds out the Ohio University guard corps.
The rotation is completed by three forwards that all hurt opponents in a different way. Ben Vander Plas is the first name to know, a passable three-point shooter who can also operate inside. The other two are polar opposites, Dwight Wilson the 6-8, 250 beast that owns the paint and Ben Roderick the 41% three-point shooter that rarely ventures inside it.
Ohio has a number of weapons offensively, but in reality they all revolve around Preston. Shutting him down is the key to winning this game.
The prediction
Every year there is at least one trendy upset pick championed by network college basketball analysts. This year there are two, and funnily enough they occur right next to each other in the bracket.
The first is UC Santa Barbara over Creighton, the second is Ohio over Virginia.
And it makes sense why people would cross Virginia’s name off their brackets this year. The Hoos are dealing with serious COVID problems, have not proven themselves against a top team, and face a hot Ohio group led by a future NBA first-rounder.
But there are other factors at play here that have clearly not been considered.
Virginia is led by two seniors in Sam Hauser and Jay Huff, who earned ACC first team and second team honors, respectively. Trey Murphy hits 43% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Tony Bennett is a two-time national coach of the year and four-time ACC coach of the year.
Kihei Clark also played in (and won) a national championship game. This is where Kihei, regardless of his regular-season struggles, becomes a huge advantage.
Ohio, on the other hand, hasn’t been to an NCAA Tournament since 2012. None of its players have been on a stage this big, and coach Jeff Boals has never even reached the NIT as a head coach. Jason Preston and his supporting cast are good, yes, but the defense is fragile and appears susceptible to Virginia’s offensive attack.
The Hoos will come into the game knowing they are being bet against, and that will put some fire in the bellies of a team that finished first in the ACC and looked poised for a deep run in the conference tournament. They have a major edge in experience, much better coaching, more talented players, and better ratings on both sides of the ball.
The Hoos come into their opener riding a six-game NCAA Tournament win streak. It won’t be broken in the first round.
Image – Virginia Athletics