Optimism and fatigue as old faces return and new ones appear

If there is one enduring moment from Virginia’s last basketball season, it came on March 13, 2022. Selection Sunday. 

The selection show is on, the bracket is taking shape, the pundits and the fans and the March fans are arguing about this team, that team, another team. The familiar pre-NCAA Tournament buzz suffuses the mind. You’re caught up in the thrill of it all, the budding magic. 

Then Greg Gumbel’s soothing voice fills in the final line on the bracket, and an awful feeling turns your stomach. 

Sixty-eight teams. Sixty-eight dreams. No Virginia.

We knew it when we woke up that morning, we knew it when we flicked on the selection show, we knew it when Gumbel read out the first name. But those scattered, simmering thoughts crystallize when the bracket reaches capacity and Virginia’s absence from it becomes official.

As a Virginia fan, March’s shimmer last year was dulled. 

This year should be different. 

The starting lineup returns, for better or worse

Pundits laud Virginia’s veteran core, pointing out that the Hoos essentially return last year’s top six players. Virginia’s high preseason rankings (No. 18 AP Poll, No. 5 KenPom) derive mostly from that.

Back are Jayden Gardner, Reece Beekman, Kihei Clark, Kadin Shedrick, Armaan Franklin and Francisco Caffaro. The only notable departure is Kody Stattmann, a player whose mere presence on the court unleashed a volley of Twitter invective.

Each player, of course, will have improved with a year’s passage. Individually and collectively. Last year’s weak (by Bennett standards) defensive unit should have coalesced with hours of offseason work. The Hoos will again build those impregnable fortress walls on the three-point line.

And last season’s abysmal three-point shooting hopefully will be banished. Has Franklin found his stroke? Maybe. Maybe not. Will Beekman and Clark step up as reliable shooters? Maybe. Maybe not. Small improvements from the six big returners can make a huge difference.

But it’s difficult to totally share the belief that returning last year’s core is positive. This is the same core that produced that 43-point performance against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, those losses to James Madison and Navy and Saint Bonaventure, that missed NCAA Tournament. 

At their foundations, they’re the same players. The Blue-White Game stats, though a small and unreliable sample, evoke worry. 

Beekman’s transformation into a dependable, ruthless scorer has been forecast since his arrival on grounds. He flashed that potential at times last season, but he’s yet to evolve into the scorer we expect him to be. In the Blue-White Game, he scored 4 points on 2-10 shooting, including 0-3 on three-pointers. 

The volume of shots is a positive sign, showing Beekman embracing his role as a scorer. But the slew of misses raises the fear that, with an unchanged core, the Hoos will regress into last year’s familiar patterns.

Luckily, Bennett called in reinforcements.

Ben Vander Plas, Taine Murray and the first years

He torched Virginia in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. He averaged 14.3 points last season at Ohio. He’s 6 feet 8 inches, 236 pounds.

And he’ll step onto the court Monday shouldering quite a burden.

Perhaps it was destiny for Ben Vander Plas to don a Virginia uniform, named as he is after the Bennett family. His scoring prowess, length and ability to stretch the floor should lend versatility to Virginia’s attack. 

It’s up to Vander Plas to have an immediate impact on this team, to help shake the Hoos out of last year’s shackles. The other newcomers won’t do it, not immediately. Virginia’s highly ranked recruiting class is promising, but any first year, no matter how touted, will take time to acclimate to Bennett’s system. 

Last year’s first years learned that the hard way. One, Igor Milicic, dove into the transfer portal’s frothing waters; the other, Taine Murray, played sparingly. 

Murray and this year’s first years stand as question marks. We’ll see whether they can squeeze their way into the rotation. 

A couple of the first years certainly look promising. Isaac Traudt, Isaac McKneely and Leon Bond garnered significant acclaim in high school. Ryan Dunn flew a bit under the radar, but he’s a strong player as well. 

The truth? We won’t know anything until the ball is tipped Monday. And, really, we won’t know anything until a few games after that, when the Hoos confront No. 5 Baylor. And even then, it’ll be too early to make definitive judgments. 

Things will slowly take shape, as they always do. It is the way of college basketball. The season begins, false positives and negatives arise and then are scrubbed, the easel is erased, and the whole thing is drawn again. 

It’ll be a slow curve, and an excruciating one. But also a beautiful one.

And it all starts Monday.

Image – Virginia Athletics