Boston College’s 2-8 record may not give the impression of a good team, but Virginia could very well experience first-hand just how dangerous they actually are. The Eagles are 0-4 in ACC play, but the vulnerabilities of this Virginia team make it such that a good night by Boston College could result in a first ACC loss for the Hoos.
Virginia recently improved to 2-0 with a dominant second half against Wake Forest and BC suffered their seventh loss out of eight, two things that could lead the Hoos to overlook their adversaries.
While still the superior team, if Virginia underestimates Boston College they could suffer serious consequences.
The opponent
We’ve already established that at 2-8, Boston College’s record is not exactly intimidating. But a record is not always a good measure of a team, and it’s safe to say that’s the case here.
BC’s two wins are far from impressive, an easy victory over Maine and a close one against a Rhode Island program experiencing a down year. Those games aside, however, they’ve suffered single-digit losses to Villanova, St. Johns, Minnesota, NC State, and Duke, all teams that are likely to receive a tournament bid. It’s tough to truly fault any team for losing those games—if anything, it’s impressive that they played them so close.
That said, there are some embarrassing losses on the resume. They went down by 20 to Florida and 38 to Syracuse, teams that are good but not to the degree that blowouts are warranted. Those losses were both serious indictments of Boston College’s defense, the Eagles allowing a combined 191 points between the two.
Kenpom ranks them at 127 in defensive efficiency, making Jim Christian’s group the third-worst defensive team in the ACC. Coincidentally, the only two teams that are ranked below them are Notre Dame and Wake, the two ACC opponents that Virginia has already faced.
Boston College also plays a fairly up-tempo game, with the result that they will likely try to go the Gonzaga route, hoping to speed Virginia up and take them out of their element.
To do that, they’ll need guards Wynston Tabbs and Jay Heath to have good games. Heath already knows what it’s like to play well against Virginia, having gone for 18 points in last year’s upset.
His toughness and ability to get tough buckets compliments Tabbs’ skill set, primarily made up of deadly three-point shooting and quickness. Yet despite those attributes, neither guard is a good passer, nor is the team as a whole. That will definitely be a problem against the packline defense.
Another problem is the absence of a dependable scorer at the forward position. Steffon Mitchell is a rebounding beast but only average at putting the ball in the hoop, and C.J. Felder is good enough at the latter but lacking in the former.
You never quite know what you’re going to get with this Boston College team on offense, but it’s a given that they’ll be relatively easy to break down on defense.
What Virginia has to do
It’s always tough going into that dark, lifeless gym and coming out with a win, even more so now with no fans to inject some life into the arena. With that in mind, there are a few things that the Hoos have to do to ensure victory.
Most importantly is the aforementioned importance of not overlooking the opponent. Virginia cannot fall into the trap of taking the 2-8 record at face value, lest they be punished by a team that is a lot better than that record suggests.
Virginia has also been very up and down throughout the season. Ideally, they find that switch and leave it firmly in the ‘on’ position, because to be frank it’s infuriating watching a team play such inconsistent basketball.
They need to come out of the gates and take charge, instead of ceding control early on to Boston College like they did against Wake. A bad half here and there is acceptable; a bad half every game is not.
Another point of concern is the three-point shooting, because Virginia is in serious trouble if they run dry. The Hoos have tiptoed the line between good and bad deep shooting ever since the first game of the season. They can’t avoid to fall on the wrong side of it.
If Virginia simply shoots the ball well and keeps it moving on the offensive end, they should be able to pick apart the BC defense. There’s no reason to believe that Sam Hauser will stop his rampage, and the guard play has been excellent recently.
It shouldn’t be too much of an ask, but if Virginia just does what they did in the second half against Wake they should win the game.
The prediction
Despite the possibility that Virginia falls into the previously discussed trap, it’s still a much safer bet that they get their third win in a row. The Hoos are much more talented and well-disciplined, and should be able to exploit BC’s many weaknesses. They also simply know how to win games, something that Boston College’s many close losses have shown that they are not adept at.
The scheduling gods gifted Virginia a very favorable start to ACC play, now the Hoos have to go out and take advantage of it.
Image – Virginia Athletics