After way too many weeks of waiting, Virginia’s 2020-21 basketball schedule has finally been dropped in its entirety. With seven non-conference games and 20 ACC games, the season will get underway on November 25 and conclude on March 6. Let’s take a look at all of Virginia’s non-conference opponents, and the probability the Hoos have of walking out with a W against each one.
Maine – Nov 25
Virginia will face Maine to open the season, in what will serve as a confidence game before the clash with Florida. For those who don’t remember, Maine was the team that scored 26 points in 40 minutes in last year’s game, so suffice it to say that the Hoos will roll in the opener.
Win Probability: 9.5/10
Florida – Nov 27
The first tough game of the season, we’re going to start to get a much better sense of what this team can do after all is said and done at the Mohegan Sun. Florida came in at #27 in the preseason AP Poll, second in the “others receiving votes” section. Make no mistake, this is going to be a tough test very early on in the season. Florida returns three starters from last year’s team, including leading scorer Keyontae Johnson. They’ll also welcome three very solid freshmen, who might make life more difficult for the Hoos.
Win Probability: 7.5/10
Saint Francis (PA) – Dec 1
A solid team in a small conference a year ago, Saint Francis nevertheless shouldn’t stand a chance against the Hoos. This is the home opener for Virginia, and yes, there are no fans, but it still shouldn’t be much of a game. To make matters worse, the Red Flash lose their top two leading scorers. It should be an easy Wahoo win.
Win Probability: 9.5/10
Kent State – Dec 4
Kent State played exactly one power conference team last year. That game was against Mississippi State, who almost dropped 100 as they pounded the Golden Flashes by 26. Mississippi State, it should be pointed out, is not a basketball school. Kent State loses three starters, gains three insignificant recruits, and should be demolished by their opponents.
Win Probability: 9.5/10
#13 Michigan State – Dec 9
Finally, the ACC decides to reward its winningest school in conference play over the last nine years with a real matchup in the ACC/B1G challenge. Of course, Duke and Illinois will be the headliner, but one can only ask for so much. And Virginia’s going to be getting plenty thrown their way with the Spartans marching into Charlottesville. This game is going to have plenty of intriguing storylines, namely the Hauser Bowl and the recent history between these two programs. Michigan State is a team that looks as if they could significantly outperform their preseason ranking. They’ve got two good recruits coming in, a few really good returners, and the addition of Joey Hauser to go with the return of Joshua Langford. Ultimately, Virginia looks better at almost every position, though of course anything could happen.
Win Probability: 6.5/10
William & Mary – Dec 12
The Tribe were in their first season under new head coach Dane Fischer last year, in which they won a respectable 21 games. Three of their top four scorers are gone, and even though they return some role players they won’t have a chance at withstanding the onslaught coming their way.
Win Probability: 9.5/10
#3 Villanova – Dec 19
The Hoos will travel to Winston-Salem to open conference play between William & Mary and this game, but the clash with Nova still goes down with the non-conference games. The matchup between the #3 and #4 AP Poll teams will take place at Madison Square Garden, and boy does this promise to be a good one. Who doesn’t love a Jay Wright vs Tony Bennett coaching matchup? Who doesn’t love basketball at the Garden? Who doesn’t want to see this game every year?
But I digress. Nova was a good team last year; they were not a great one. This time around, they are a very good team. They graduated only one player last year, and amusingly he was the last man off the bench. They do, however, lose Saddiq Bey to the NBA Draft, which I’m sure caused a collective sigh of relief from the Big East schools that he laid waste to a season ago. Aside from Bey, everybody is back. Per usual, the Wildcats are going to be a very strong shooting team, and the matchups at every position are going to be a sight to see. These are two great teams, and at a neutral site it’s a toss-up.
Win Probability: 5/10
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