Three final takeaways after Virginia’s season-ending loss to St. Bonaventure

Here was Virginia, playing an inferior opponent, the clock winding down, the game close, the outcome essential. All that was needed: a couple made free throws, one defensive stop and some intelligent decision-making. 

The Hoos failed on all counts. 

Kihei Clark’s face is blank as he walks slowly toward the Virginia bench, the clock reading zeros and the ball bouncing wearily in the corner. A few feet away, Saint Bonaventure players wave a gleeful goodbye to the stunned Virginia crowd.

Kihei’s final attempt to prolong Virginia’s season has just been viciously swatted away, and now his expression is inscrutable. He moves out from under the hoop as though carrying a great weight—his steps are plodding, mechanical. The harsh truth is beginning to penetrate Kihei’s vacant visage: Virginia’s season, and likely Kihei’s career in Charlottesville, are over.

To rehash the game’s decisive last couple minutes would be a fairly pointless, rather painful venture. Virginia lost, plain and simple, capping an exhausting season whose highs were shadowed by crushing lows. Was this one of those lows? That depends on how much value you place on the National Invitational Tournament, a pitiful consolation for some teams and a valuable opportunity for others.

By the time the NIT plucked Virginia from among the NCAA Tournament’s leftovers, the Hoos were far removed from their season’s high-water mark. That occurred back in the beginning of February when Reece Beekman drilled a three to sink Duke. Virginia’s season wasn’t devoid of great moments like the Duke game, but they weren’t exactly common.

Watching this team was, as always, a journey in itself. The difficult season leaves a lot to unpack. Here are three final takeaways.

Talent, recruiting problems doomed Virginia

From the beginning, Tony Bennett was trying to pilot a plane with a missing engine. A talent gap existed, and Virginia ran into plenty of turbulence because of it. 

Which makes Bennett’s postgame comments after the last game particularly interesting. Bennett isn’t one to blame his players, and while this wasn’t exactly blame, it was an unexpected—and refreshing—bit of candor from the head coach.

“We must improve,” Bennett said. “Every player that returns to this program—they better take a step in terms of commitment and in their strength and their ability.”

A challenge, then. To his players, who, as a whole, were not of the caliber required of NCAA Tournament teams. “We were short-handed this year, with a tight rotation,” Bennett said.

That much was painfully obvious. After the departures of Jay Huff, Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy at the end of last season, Virginia’s ranks had thinned and were in need of supplementation. The reinforcements were promising, but lacking in number. Jayden Gardner proved to be every bit the player Wahoo fans hoped (we’ll get to him in a moment), but the only other additions to the roster were Armaan Franklin, Igor Milicic and Taine Murray. Franklin’s supposed strength was three-point shooting, but fans were quickly disabused of that notion (despite a stellar NIT run). And after encouraging starts, neither Milicic nor Murray played meaningful minutes the rest of the season.

A mere 19.6% of Virginia’s minutes came from bench players this season, per KenPom. Of the nation’s 358 other programs, the Virginia bench played less minutes on average than all but eight. Basically that means Virginia was the 350th-deepest team in the country. 

It was a seven-man rotation for the bulk of the year: Gardner, Franklin, Clark, Beekman, Caffaro, Shedrick, Stattmann. Stattmann has been widely—and largely accurately—criticized as an unathletic player and an offensive liability. But his defense wasn’t terrible, or at any rate was at least better than the Murray, Milicic, McCorkle trio, so he played. Caffaro and Shedrick were decent big men—nothing more, nothing less. Both may blossom over the offseason, but they were often overmatched this year.

The lack of strong players was a problem defensively, too. Virginia finished the season 60th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, its worst mark since 2011, Bennett’s second season.

The core of Gardner, Clark and Beekman was solid, even if the pair of guards were prone to bouts of inconsistency. But the flimsiness of the overall roster was a death knell from the beginning.

Three-point shooting the killer

Virginia’s ineptitude from three-point range was glaring all season. Twice this year, the Hoos went an entire game without making a three-pointer. The first occasion was the road loss to Virginia Tech; the second, the ugly ACC Tournament win over Louisville. Franklin came to life in the NIT, hitting 12 of 23 three-point attempts, but it was too little, too late, even if it does bode well for next season.

A brief statistical analysis of KenPom’s Virginia basketball “history” page yields some interesting results.

Only four seasons in the 21st century has Virginia shot less than 33% on threes. This season is included in that sorry lot, Virginia’s 32.3% standing as the 269th in the nation and the second-worst in the Bennett era. “We struggled to shoot this year,” the head coach said bluntly.

But we knew how poorly Virginia shot the ball from deep. What’s more revealing is the three-point attempt percentage: 29.9%, good for 340th in the country and a seismic drop from last season’s 42.7%. Three-point attempt percentage is a measure of the percentage of a team’s field goal attempts that come from beyond the arc. 

Virginia’s low three-point attempt percentage is obviously a result of its shooting woes. Why take threes when you know you’re not going to make them? But the low attempt percentage working in tandem with the low make percentage meant opposing defenses could stay compact inside the arc instead of defending outside it. Virginia’s interior game suffered as a result. 

Bad three-point shooting begets bad overall offense. Virginia had plenty of both.

Gardner, Beekman set for stardom

Gardner has not yet made an official announcement about whether he’ll use his “super-senior” season, but it’s a safe bet he’ll be back for a second year in Charlottesville. And that is massive for Virginia.

Gardner averaged 15.3 points and 6.4 rebounds this season while shooting 50.1% from the field. His midrange jump shot is mechanical in its efficiency, his ability to thrust his 246-pound frame to the rack extraordinary (especially given that refs universally appear to lose the power of vision when he gets the ball). Gardner has spoken about adding a three-point shot to his game, which seems feasible given his midrange prowess and would complete his game.

Then there was Beekman, who emitted blinding flashes of brilliance. His vicious first step, quickness in the lane, big shot-making ability and general ball-handling skills were all valuable. But every deft drive to the rim was as frustrating as it was exciting: You wanted to ask, “hey, Reece, why don’t you do that more often?”

Next year he should do it with regularity, and that, coupled with the emergence of his deep shot, will make Beekman an extremely tough player to guard. His exact role will depend on whether Kihei stays or goes; either way, Beekman looks poised to break out. 

Tony Bennett and Co. are reloading this offseason with a stacked recruiting class. But Bennett has a warning for eager fans: “Everybody’s real excited with this new class. They’ll have their work to do—it’s hard coming in as a first-year. And, you gotta have patience. If they’re good enough, they’ll play, if not, they’ll improve and be ready at some point.”

The transfer portal is also open for business, and movement both toward and away from Virginia should be expected. The offseason will include the now-familiar seesawing that’s become part and parcel of college basketball. 

All things considered, this was a down year for Virginia. But rest assured; the Hoos will be back. In the words of the maestro himself, “You have to dust yourself off, get up and find a way.” With Bennett leading the way and a revamped roster approaching, Virginia just might be able to.

Image – Virginia Athletics