With an 11th ACC win safely secured on Saturday, Virginia will head to Tallahassee for a pivotal conference matchup. It will be a chance to add a quality win to the resume, the Hoos having lost their only two games to teams currently ranked in the Top 25.
The ACC’s two best teams will be pitted against each other in the matchup, both looking to advance their goals of a regular season conference title.
The Seminoles are not far removed from a lengthy COVID-19 break, taking the court for the first time in two weeks last Saturday against Boston College. As has been the case throughout the season for various teams, the Noles seemed to have dropped off because of the hiatus.
But they rallied from behind against Wake Forest, a Scottie Barnes layup tying the game just before the buzzer to send it to overtime. Florida State proceeded to dominate the extra period, outscoring the Demon Deacons by seven for a 92-85 win.
Virginia is no stranger to teams coming off long breaks. They obliterated Clemson in the Tigers’ first game back from one, and will look to take advantage again of an FSU team still finding its feet after being sidelined for a couple of weeks.
A win would give Virginia their fourth Quad 1 win of the season, and it would also effectively hand them the ACC regular season trophy. Here are three keys to a Wahoo victory.
Keep Florida State off the three-point line
Florida State looked understandably messy in multiple facets of the game against Wake, but the one area where they excelled was deep shooting.
This aligns with what the Noles have done all season. They lead the ACC in three-point percentage, shooting an incredible 42% against league opponents. They exceeded that number against Wake, making 12 triples and shooting 48% on threes.
Florida State, per usual, is one of the tallest teams in the nation (their shortest starter is 6-4), so they are well equipped to shoot over opponents. That makes it difficult to stem the flow of threes, even with good defense.
Trey Murphy should keep up his stout defense, but Virginia’s other guards are going to have to be locked onto their taller counterparts. It’s not so much a question of running them off the three-point line as it is refraining from being sucked too far away from the ball.
This was a problem against North Carolina. The Heels also possess a tall team, and Virginia kept doubling in the post and shifting to help, leaving UNC shooters open. Luckily, Carolina missed most of those looks.
Florida State will not.
Win the guard battle
Two high-profile recruits entered the ACC at the guard position this season. One was Caleb Love, who Virginia held to four points a couple days ago. The other is Scottie Barnes, who has by all accounts been the better and more efficient of the two.
Barnes’s 10.5 points per game may be modest, but they come in just 25 minutes. Leonard Hamilton once again has a very deep roster, and because of that Barnes’s allotted time is a lot smaller than you might expect for a five-star recruit.
Part of that is also due to the presence of MJ Walker, who is the only player on the team to average 30 minutes and also leads the Noles in scoring.
Not to beat the depth point to death, but FSU has a wide selection of players who can hurt opponents at every position. The guard spot is certainly not an exception, so it’s going to be an interesting experience for Virginia’s guards going up against a perpetually changing opponent.
Walker and Barnes are the ones to watch though, and it’s the two of them that have to be subdued.
On the other end of the court, Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman need to step things up. Clark has simply not performed on a consistent basis all year, and both are at fault when it comes to decision-making.
The fact that neither of them is a good shooter limits their options on offense, but the Wahoo guards cannot resort to driving straight at the FSU defenders. Probing a little is good; getting blocked every other possession is not.
They have to keep the ball moving and find the open shooters against a long Florida State team that will look to converge on Virginia’s smaller guards.
Keep the Noles off the boards
Virginia was outrebounded by North Carolina Saturday, allowing them eight offensive rebounds in the first half and 12 in the game. That wasn’t entirely unexpected due to Carolina’s length, but it is worrying when put in conversation with Florida State’s even bigger team.
The Noles are pulling down the fifth most offensive rebounds per game in the ACC while their opponents pull down the second least.
They’re not huge on crashing the offensive boards, but they will punish a team that gets lackadaisical when rebounding. Virginia cannot afford to give FSU second-chance opportunities.
RaiQuan Gray, a beefy 6-8 forward, is one to pay attention to in this respect. He leads the team in rebounds, and his 260 pounds are going to be a lot for Virginia to handle. Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick will probably get a longer run-out in this game, Tony Bennett likely to employ the duo to counteract Gray and his fellow forwards.
But whoever it is that gets the minutes for the Hoos, they have to stand strong on the defensive boards.
These are far from the only things Virginia has to do, but they are things that could potentially win or lose the game. On that note, pack your defibrillators for a contest that might test the hearts of even the Cardiac Cavs.
Image – Virginia Athletics