Virginia’s nonconference schedule was supposed to be a brutal one.
The Hoos were scheduled to play Florida, Michigan State, and Villanova all in the space of a month.
But with all three games canceled, another tough matchup was scheduled, this one against top-ranked Gonzaga. While one big game does not make up for the absence of three others, a date with the Zags is probably more exciting than the other three.
Gonzaga, led by the trio of Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, and Jalen Suggs, already owns three top-15 victories. They promise to be a stiff test and a great learning experience, regardless of the outcome.
But of course, a win over the nation’s best team would make the holidays that much better. So here are three reasons why the Hoos will come out on top, and three why Gonzaga keeps rolling.
Why Virginia wins
1) Virginia is much deeper
With five very skilled and volatile players on his roster, Mark Few has plenty of talent at his disposal. We’ll talk more about them in a minute, but the point is that it’s those five, and not much else.
Virginia currently has 10 players averaging double figures in minutes, in stark contrast to Gonzaga’s seven. Granted, Virginia’s had a much easier schedule thus far, so you’d expect the playing time to be spread around a little more.
All the same, Gonzaga’s starting five all average above 25 minutes per game, while Virginia only has two players averaging in that range. What it boils down to is that Gonzaga’s offensive production is much more predictable than Virginia’s. The same five or six guys are always going to be carrying the load for the Zags, whereas there are plenty of Virginia players that can break out at any time.
That unpredictability and amount of options will keep Mark Few and his defense guessing, and it could help Virginia win the game.
2) The tempo battle
I addressed this yesterday in my “Four things that Virginia must do to challenge Gonzaga” article, and I’m going to talk about it again here. Such is the importance of dictating the tempo.
Gonzaga is the sixth fastest team in the country, according to KenPom. Virginia is the slowest. The two teams represent two totally different styles of play, and they’ll both do their utmost to force the other team to play their game.
A Virginia win in that particular battle has multiple meanings. For one thing, it makes the Hoos more comfortable, for another, it makes an explosive Gonzaga run less likely to happen and blow the game open.
Many times have teams tried to speed Virginia up — rarely have they succeeded.
3) Defense
Thus far, Gonzaga has faced opponents with KenPom defensive ranks of 310, 69, 61, 18, and 9. Virginia is ranked third, having moved up from fifth after their great defensive performance against William & Mary.
Going from ninth-ranked Kansas to third-ranked Virginia may not seem like that big of a leap at first, but there are other factors to take into account. Kansas was Gonzaga’s first game of the season, one month and a 15-day break ago. It’s been a long time since they’ve faced such a high caliber defense.
It also looks like Tony Bennett has cleaned up various problematic aspects of his defense, so expect Virginia to be rock-solid back there going forward. Even if the Hoos aren’t playing the pack line as well as they normally do, playing such a stout defense will no doubt unsettle the Zags.
Why Gonzaga wins
1) Better guards
With Andrew Nembhard and Jalen Suggs joining Joel Ayayi in the Gonzaga backcourt, the Bulldogs probably have the most complete set of guards in all of college basketball.
Since joining from Florida, Nembhard hasn’t played quite as well as predicted. But with Jalen Suggs outperforming expectations by a large margin, that becomes almost moot. Suggs has been nothing short of amazing in his first year playing college hoops, averaging 16.3 points and 5.8 assists in just 27 minutes.
Ayayi and Nembhard haven’t been up to that level, but they’ve both been making solid contributions nonetheless. Slowing down this trio is a tall task, even for Virginia’s excellent defensive guards.
2) Timme and Kispert
Virginia has a very, very good forward duo in Jay Huff and Sam Hauser. It’s one of the best in the nation, in fact. But the combination of Drew Timme and Cory Kispert makes up the best forward combo in all of college basketball.
Kispert averages 20.8 points per game and Timme averages 20.3, good for 28th and 34th in the nation, respectively. The two of them are going to be very difficult to stop when they get the ball in their hands.
Kispert is also a knockdown three point shooter, at 17-37 for the season (45.9%). Gonzaga already has the advantage at the guard position, and they appear to have it with their two big forwards as well.
3) More experience/consistency
Gonzaga’s only played six games to Virginia’s five, but they’ve already gained valuable experience that the Hoos haven’t. The Zags have played and won games against three top-15 opponents, while Virginia is yet to play a power conference team.
To further contrast the difference in opposition, Gonzaga’s average opponent is ranked 28th on KenPom, while Virginia’s is 257th. That’s a pretty big gap, and it gives Gonzaga a decided edge.
The Bulldogs have also had a level of consistency that has been absent from the Wahoos all season. The running joke among Virginia fans is that the team plays well every odd game — and this one will be their sixth. Joke or not, the Zags have been much steadier all season, and that makes them even more of a favorite.
The game will tip on Saturday at 4:00 PM at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, and air on CBS.
Image – Virginia Athletics