It’s a weird thing, but Virginia has developed an unlucky knack for facing teams coming off of hot streaks. First it was Clemson, who had won four games in a row prior to their game against the Hoos, then it was Georgia Tech riding a five-game win streak.
Now it will be Syracuse, who has won their last two ACC games by a combined 44 points. The Orange blew out Miami 83-57 in the Carrier Dome before recording an impressive 78-60 win over 16th-ranked Virginia Tech, also at home.
At their best, Syracuse is a very good basketball team; at their worst they’re being destroyed by opponents who nearly reach triple figures. Which version of Syracuse shows up will obviously impact the result, but regardless, here are three reasons why each team takes home the W.
Why Virginia wins
1) Syracuse struggles on the road
They may boast a 7-1 home record, but Jim Boeheim’s group is a mere 1-3 on the road. Some of that goes down to the discrepancy between the caliber of opponents—the Orange have played teams such as Bryant, Rider, and Niagara at home and ones like UNC, Pitt, and Rutgers on the road—but there is also a clear difference in the way they play.
That they can beat a team like Virginia Tech by 18 in the Carrier Dome and lose to Pitt by 20 on the road shows a massive gap in their play between the two locations. Virginia is also undefeated inside John Paul Jones Arena, so the location of the game should tilt the balance towards Virginia.
2) The Orange play spotty defense
The 2-3 zone has been a trademark of Jim Boeheim teams since he arrived at Syracuse, but it has seemingly failed the coach this year. Their metrics aren’t terrible, but Syracuse has had a number of poor defensive outings, not least of which was the 96 points they gave up to Pitt. There doesn’t seem to be much of a middle ground for the Cuse defense—either it’s on or it’s not.
Either way, Virginia’s current offense is set up well to beat the zone. It is well known that an effective way to beat the zone is from beyond the arc, and Virginia has shot better than 40% from that region in each of their last three games. On top of that, the Hoos happen to have a midrange wizard in Sam Hauser, and finding the gaps in the zone—i.e., the high post—is another way to beat it.
3) The packline defense is back
A cursory glance at the results may not prove it, but Virginia’s defense has taken massive steps from where they were a couple of months ago. They locked down Clemson last week, and while Georgia Tech may have reached 62 points, that was in spite of mostly unimpeachable defense.
Syracuse does possess a few offensive threats, but the Orange are a relatively unathletic team. The revamped Wahoo defense should make it very difficult for Syracuse to score.
Why Syracuse wins
1) Syracuse is hot
I mentioned this up top, but the Orange are playing easily their best basketball of this season right now. They’ve notched two big wins in a row, the second coming against a ranked team in Virginia Tech.
We can talk about numbers and figures and stats all we want, but at the end of the day confidence and momentum are just as important. Syracuse has those two things in abundance right now.
2) They have a bunch of players who can score
Four guys are averaging double figures in scoring for the Orange in conference play, and a fifth is just below that mark. The surprise within those five has been Alan Griffin, a 6-foot-5 junior forward. He’s an accomplished three-point shooter that can occasionally take it inside, and leads the team in conference play with 16.8 points per game.
But Quincy Guerrier is the more worrying member of the group. At 6-7 and 220 pounds, the sophomore forward is a beast inside. He may be slightly undersized as far as height is concerned, yet has the strength and the tenacity to make his presence felt in the paint.
Buddy Boeheim, Joe Girard, and Marek Dolezaj are the other players to watch for the Orange, but the two above are the more pressing concerns.
3) Virginia hasn’t done well against the zone
While it may seem on paper as if the Hoos should match up perfectly against the zone, when teams have brought it out in the past they have struggled. Think back to the Boston College game and the eight-minute scoring drought that took place within it. The Eagles switched to a zone D for a large portion of that time, and Virginia was obviously not equipped to deal with it.
I did say above that the Orange have played bad defense for much of the season, but it looks like they may have gotten it together recently. They held Miami to a mere 57 points and Virginia Tech to just 60, the two teams unable to break down the zone. Some lackluster three-point shooting from the Hurricanes and the Hokies no doubt factored into those performances, but they are impressive numbers all the same.
Syracuse will have to keep the good defense going if they are to pull of the upset against Virginia.
Image – Virginia Athletics