Three takeaways from Virginia’s miserable loss to NC State

The Virginia basketball program has had some great teams over the past decade. Teams that have won ACC regular-season championships, ACC Tournament championships and in 2019, the National Championship. Those teams have won against good opponents and bad, in JPJ and Cameron Indoor, on hot shooting nights and cold ones.

This is not one of those teams. Not even remotely close, as it turns out. This Virginia team all but cemented its legacy as one of the worst in the Bennett era by losing, 77-63, to North Carolina State.

The Hoos were drowned by a torrent of Wolfpack threes. Although Virginia answered with plenty of their own (NC State made 12, Virginia 10), it wasn’t nearly enough to stay in the game. Virginia sank beneath the waves, overwhelmed by an opponent that played what was probably its best game of the season to date.

With the loss, Virginia moves to 11-8 on the season and 5-4 in the ACC. The Hoos seem to be falling to pieces at a time when they need to be gluing those pieces together. Here are three takeaways.

Talent deficiency strikes again

Virginia’s talent deficiency is unmistakable. 

Entering the season, the expectation was that Jayden Gardner, Armaan Franklin and Kihei Clark would form the core of a respectable (if not very threatening) offensive attack. Those hopes have not been realized. Gardner’s been very good, but his production plummets precipitously at random intervals. Franklin may have turned a corner recently, going for 14 points and 4 threes against NC State, but has been disappointing overall. And Clark’s play has been maddeningly mediocre, the fourth-year guard often fading into the background.

Elsewhere on the roster, Reece Beekman has shown progress, and Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick play well on occasion. But those are small victories, little successes that are only remarkable because of the poor play surrounding them. 

Perhaps the easiest way to see Virginia’s talent problem is to look at Kody Stattmann. Stattmann is Virginia’s seventh-man, the final piece in what has been a sealed-off seven-man rotation. He brings an admirable amount of effort to each game and is a likable player, but ultimately is generally a liability on both ends of the floor. 

If you need an explanation as to why, you probably haven’t been watching enough Virginia basketball.

Virginia’s three M’s sit parked on the bench, their engines off and the key removed from the ignition. They saw time against NC State, but only after the deficit was insurmountable. And Tony Bennett’s unwillingness to play them means he hasn’t seen enough in practice to warrant their play. 

The Hoos lack talent; it’s a simple fact that must be faced. Bennett has had some successes on the recruiting trail throughout his tenure (including with next year’s class, which is ranked 10th nationally by 247), but he’s never been as proficient a recruiter as coaches at other top programs. 

Some college coaches are great at acquiring talent, others are great at developing it. Bennett is part of the latter group. But his failure in the last few years to obtain good recruits is hurting Virginia.

This defense is not good

In the seven seasons from 2013-20, Virginia’s defensive efficiency ranking on KenPom was never worse than 7th. Last year, the Hoos were 36th. This year, they’re 95th. 

That’s the worst mark in the Bennett era. In a normal year, Virginia and its fans can take pride in defensive strength. Great defense has been ingrained in the identity of this program.

So what happens when the expected level of defense doesn’t show up? 

Well, this. Bad losses, inconsistent play and even questions about Virginia’s effort. To some extent, there was nothing the Hoos could do against the hail of threes NC State rained down, but it goes beyond that. The beginning of the second half saw a succession of easy NC State buckets. The Wolfpack sliced through Virginia’s defense like a samurai sword through a tomato. 

Part of the problem relates to the lack of talent discussed in the previous section. Virginia is a conspicuously unathletic team. The Hoos have been burned by strong, athletic players plenty of times this season. Things can improve on the defensive end, but they won’t come close to reaching Bennett’s defensive standard.

At-large bid hopes are dead

Virginia’s already-fading hopes of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid are pretty much dead. If not already packed in the coffin, they’re definitely on life support, and the doctors are about to pull the plug.

The only route to an at-large bid left to Virginia is winning out, and the odds of that are very long. With a collection of bad losses and few opportunities remaining to prove themselves, the situation is dire.

Virginia’s only real chance is to win the ACC Tournament and secure the conference’s automatic bid. That’s not an impossible prospect with the weakness of the league, but it’s going to take a lot of improvement for Virginia to have a realistic chance. 

Some say that nothing really matters until March. Virginia has to hope that belief is true.

Image – Virginia Athletics