The only logical conclusion to be drawn from the first 11 minutes of the game was that somebody had drugged Virginia’s pregame meal. Either that, or invisible lids had been discreetly placed on the rim. 

In those first 11 minutes, Virginia scored 4 points. The succession of misses would have been almost comical if Virginia’s season hadn’t been hanging in the balance. This wasn’t the way Virginia’s season was supposed to end. Surely, the Hoos wouldn’t go crashing out of the ACC Tournament in the second round at the hands of a team they’d already beaten twice.

The only good news was that Louisville wasn’t playing much better offense. The Virginia defense had been solid, Louisville’s shots were clanking off the iron and the Cardinals only had 13 points to Virginia’s 4. 

Virginia worked its way back by halftime. The second half saw both teams trading buckets; they weren’t separated by more than four points for the entire second half. It should have been the type of game where every possession felt like a must-score. But it wasn’t. Because you knew that, even if Virginia failed to score, Louisville would likely do the same.

The game could have swung either way, but it was Virginia who got the big buckets down the stretch and prevailed. Here are three takeaways.

Veterans take over

For the vast majority of the game, the Virginia offense was a two-man show. Jayden Gardner and Kihei Clark, who sat for a combined five minutes in the entire game, did it all for Virginia. They combined for 32 of Virginia’s 51 points.

Garden’s usual standby, his midrange jumper, wasn’t falling early in the first half. So he tried a different tack, and began muscling his way to the rack for strong layups. In the second period, Gardner found his midrange shot and helped Virginia secure the win. His free throws with four seconds left clinched the game.

Kihei was arguably more important than Gardner. With the offense malfunctioning, Kihei took matters into his own hands. He scored jumpers and layups alike as he powered to 15 points. Late in the game, Kihei took a charge just inside halfcourt; the play was a massive momentum-shifter and helped Virginia seize control of the game.

Three-point shooting is sorely needed

The discussion of Virginia’s three-point woes is tired. But to state the obvious, the lack of anything approaching a three-point threat is detrimental to Virginia’s ability to score. Louisville took the reasonable approach, crowding into the arc to form a shifting mass of black jerseys. With the interior clogged, Gardner and the big men had little room to operate, and the guards struggled to chart a path to the rim through the forest of defenders.

Virginia found a way to win, though, becoming the first team in the history of the ACC Tournament to win without making a single three. But the dry spell from deep will be Virginia’s undoing against North Carolina. Eking by Louisville without a made three is one thing; pulling resurgent UNC down from its pedestal is quite another.

Tonight will be an uphill battle

North Carolina was always going to be the biggest roadblock on Virginia’s path to Saturday night. The Tar Heels eviscerated the Hoos earlier in the season, and will come into Brooklyn riding a five-game win streak. The most recent addition to that streak? A statement victory at Duke.

Armando Bacot’s relentless play underneath was a warm knife to Virginia’s block of cheese the first time the two teams met. Stopping him this time will take a herculean effort from Francisco Caffaro who, as the stronger defender, will draw the Bacot assignment over Shedrick.  

Then there’s Brady Manek, the big man who drained five threes against Virginia and hit the same number over the weekend against Duke. Manek is a nearly impossible matchup for Virginia. 

The only place Virginia might be able to find stops defensively is with Reece Beekman and Kihei Clark on Caleb Love and RJ Davis. Both Love and Davis were fantastic against Duke, but Beekman and Clark should be up to the task. 

Offensively, in addition to hitting some threes, Virginia’s guards need to take the ball to the hoop. Beekman must take advantage of his lightning-fast first step and quickness in the lane. 

UNC isn’t the greatest defensive team, but again, Virginia matches up terribly with Hubert Davis’s squad. There’s no question that the Heels enter this tournament as the hottest ACC team. An improbable Virginia win will start with making some threes and holding strong defensively.

The fate of Virginia’s season depends on it.

Virginia vs North Carolina will tip at 9:30 pm EST and air on ESPN.

Image – Virginia Athletics