I didn’t expect to bust out the “three reasons why Virginia will win and three why they won’t” template this early in the season—mostly because I figured that scrambling for three reasons why Virginia would lose would be impossible. But the Hoos shockingly dropped their second game of the season to San Francisco, and on the other end Saint Francis (PA) opened their season with a convincing 10-point win over Pittsburgh.
So here we stand. By no means do I actually think that Virginia will lose—though I’m sure we all have a pit of uncertainty in our stomachs after last Friday—but it is a possibility. Most likely, the Hoos will cruise to victory in their first game at JPJ, get back in the win column, and gain some confidence eight days away from a showdown with Michigan State. But nothing is for certain, so here are three reasons that Virginia gets an important win, and three that Saint Francis pulls off the upset.
Why Virginia Wins
1) The Wahoo forwards will be too much
Saint Francis has only played two forwards in significant roles over their first two games. While one of those forwards is very good (we’ll get there in a bit), Virginia’s trifecta of forwards should prove too much for the relatively small lineup that the Red Flash employ. The two aforementioned forwards are 6-10 and 6-4, standing in stark contrast with Virginia’s 7-1, 6-8, and 6-8 group.
Even putting aside the distinct height advantage, Virginia has a significant advantage. Jay Huff—if he actually shoots the ball, which is never a guarantee—should walk all over Saint Francis’s lackluster defense. Sam Hauser’s shot the ball well in both games and will likely continue that production. And Justin McKoy, the biggest and most pleasant surprise thus far, will look to continue getting points in the paint.
SFU’s forwards aren’t bad per se, but Virginia’s are just that much better.
2) Virginia’s defense is too good
As something that’s always so reliable for Virginia basketball, it’s been odd to see the defense look slightly undisciplined at times. They’ve given away a few easy buckets, something that almost never happens, and overall have not been the stout defense that we have become accustomed to. That’s not to say that the Hoos have played bad d, just that it is definitely below the standards that have been set over the past few years.
With some time to digest the first two games, there’s no doubt that Tony Bennett’s spent a ton of time shoring up the breaches in his trademark defense. Most of the work needs to come in the low post and on simple decision-making on when and when not to help. Rest assured that Bennett will fix those problems, restoring Virginia’s most valuable asset to full power.
3) The amount of scorers will overwhelm Saint Francis
After the first game, a hot topic was the depth of this team, which seemed at the time to be Virginia’s best in years. Nobody could hit a shot in game two, so the conversation moved away from that, but the fact remains that there is immeasurable depth at Tony Bennett’s disposal this year. The loss to San Francisco really boiled down to overusing that depth and not giving guys time to get into their rhythm.
While that could be another issue against the Red Flash, it’s equally likely that the sheer volume of players who can score will simply overwhelm the visitors. I could run down the list, but the truth is that it’s not finished yet. Reece Beekman and Justin McKoy’s breakouts against San Francisco were unexpected, so we really don’t know who else will do the same. Maybe Kody Stattmann or Tomas Woldetensae come off the bench for some points, or maybe Jabri Abdur-Rahim finally gets his opportunity.
It doesn’t matter who it is, the point is that there are already a group of established scorers on this team, and some players who might be able to add their names to that group soon. The depth of this Wahoo team might just overwhelm Saint Francis.
Why Saint Francis Wins
1) Mark Flagg has been a beast
There’s no other way to put it. The senior forward is 14-17 from the field over his first two games with 13 rebounds, making him the clear standout player for head coach Rob Kimmel. He didn’t miss a shot against Pitt, and went 9-12 for 18 points in the following loss to UMBC.
Standing at 6-10, Flagg is no freak of nature, but he is a very good, very aggressive forward. His one major deficiency is free throw shooting, as Flagg went an atrocious 1-7 from the charity stripe over his first two games. He isn’t good enough that anybody would actually consider fouling him as a strategy, but it might not be a bad thing if he gets on the line instead of on the post.
Flagg is a very good player, and he’ll prevent a challenge for a Virginia defense that is still learning.
2) Their guards are dependable
They’re far from infallible, but three of Saint Francis’s guards are averaging in double digits. Maxwell Land, in particular, is a sniper from deep. Ramiir Dixon-Conover is the point guard of the bunch, and an explosive one at that, going for 21 points and 5 dimes in the Pitt win.
These guards aren’t as good as the ones that the Hoos faced in the San Francisco fiasco, but they are a solid group that could present a threat if they get hot.
3) Virginia has been shaky
I’m sure I don’t need to present any evidence to prove this point. Anybody who watched the San Francisco game, or read about it, or so much as checked the score knows that it’s true. The odds are slim that Virginia’s next performance will resemble that one, but one never knows with college basketball. While it’s certainly unlikely, it is a viable possibility that the Hoos fall into another of their scoring droughts and allow Saint Francis a chance to seize control of the game.
Score Prediction: Virginia 74-52 Saint Francis
Image – UVA Athletics
2 comments
76-51. Need to work harder on your predictions 🙂
I know man. Missing by three points is unacceptable. I’ll try and whittle it down to two for next time.
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