We all know what happened last time. The Hoos were coming off a 26-point home destruction of Virginia Tech, and were ranked 18th nationally. They sauntered into Conte Forum and, well, let’s just say they were in a very different emotional state after falling at the hands of a BC team wallowing in the depths of the ACC.
But the Eagles have vacated that pit of misery in favor of a much more desirable location in the standings. They now sit at seventh in the ACC, and stake claim to a respectable — if not impressive — 7-8 record in the conference. Despite sitting only two and a half games behind the Hoos in the conference, the Eagles come in as shocking 11 point underdogs.
That might be a little much for a Virginia team that has been in 11 consecutive single-digit games. That streak has to stop somewhere though… Right?
Why Virginia will win
1. The Hoos are confident
Winning five out of six games will do that to a team, especially if the loss came at the hands of a top ten opponent. This would be a very different section if Virginia had come out of the Dean Dome with a loss, as it seemed they would with 10 seconds left. But Tomas Woldetensae hit a big three to pull the Hoos back from the dead.
He’s riding the wave right now, having hit six or more threes in three out of the last six. That’s Kyle Guy shooting, if not even better, and drawing comparisons to the three-point legend himself is enough to instill confidence. There’s also Casey Morsell, who’s having what can be described as an up-and-down season. He scored 10 points against Carolina though, and here’s to hoping that will be the spark that keeps the fire burning for the rest of the season.
2. Mamadi’s the man
He’s scored in double-digits in six straight games; it’s not a coincidence that the Hoos are 5-1 in that stretch. Mamadi is, to put it quite simply, the best player on this UVA team, and the one that can be relied upon to put the ball in the bucket when all else fails. The preseason first team All ACC selection earned Virginia’s first ACC Player of the Week this season, and deservedly so.
He’s seemed to have found his groove for good, and that is absolutely imperative for the Hoos in any situation. He only shot the ball six times in the first outing against Boston College. There’s no doubt that the number will go up by a great deal this time around as he will provide a reliable option for the Hoos.
3. Boston College won’t be able to replicate what happened last time
In Virginia’s first trip to Conte Forum, a number of things happened that caused the Eagles to win. First and foremost, their two leading scorers were out. Nik Popovic, the 6-foot-11 Forward, was one of them. This took away their option down low. So instead of throwing it down low and playing into the hands of the packline, they were forced into the only thing that can truly defeat Tony Bennett’s trademark defense: Shooting.
Without an inside presence in Popovic or a driving force in Derryck Thornton, the Eagles had to throw up a number of wild shots. Those shots went in. It wasn’t necessarily three-point shooting (4 of 17), but there were a number of circus shots that BC fans were happy to see fall in, allowing them to win. That’s not happening again.
Why Boston College will win
1. Popovic will score inside
As I just touched upon, Nik Popovic is a 6-foot-11, 235 pound behemoth. In many ways, he’s a lot like John Mooney. Now, it goes without saying that he’s far from Mooney’s level, but they are similar types of players. Mooney terrorized Virginia for 14 rebounds and 11 points.
There’s no reason to expect the same with Popovic, but a big man pushing Huff and Diakite around inside is never a welcome addition for Wahoo fans. Popovic could play an underlooked yet important role if BC were to pull of the upset.
2. They can defend
The Eagles aren’t exactly UVA-caliber when it comes to the part where their backs are against their own basket. But competent they are, and less than competent has been enough against the Hoos on more than one occasion. They rank 86th in AdjD per Kenpom.com, and recently held Duke to 63 points.
It’s not exactly clear what was going on when the Eagles allowed Miami to drop 85 on them a couple of games back. If it’s one of those days, there will be singing in the streets of Charlottesville. If it’s one of the ones where they hold a top ten team to 63… Imagine the opposite of partying.
3. They’re lucky
This may sound a little—or a lot—weird, but hear me out. I’ve already talked about how Boston College hit some truly ridiculous shots when they faced the Hoos for the first time. That’s its own kind of lucky. But the luck factor on Kenpom.com, which essentially measures how lucky a team has been in close games, puts them at 8th.
Virginia has been in plenty of close games, so this measurement—imaginary or not—could play a role down the stretch.
Boston College at Virginia tips off at 8:00 PM ET on ACCN.