Let’s start this off with a question: Six weeks ago, did you have any inkling that this Virginia team would be a game away from a share of the ACC title?
If your answer is yes, congratulations. You’ve been blessed with the extraordinary ability to see into the future. Either that, or you’re the greatest optimist to ever walk the earth.
At this point six weeks ago, Virginia was 12-6, and 5-4 in the ACC. They were in the midst of a three-game losing skid, one that included heart-wrenching losses to NC State, Florida State, and—to a lesser extent—Syracuse.
But now they have ascended to heights that nobody would have thought possible a mere month and a half ago. Winners of seven in a row, the Hoos have put themselves in a position in which they can share the ACC regular season title. For that to happen, they’ll need Florida State to slip up at home against BC.
But more importantly, they’ll need to defeat Louisville at home. A win would at least give them the second seed in the ACC Tournament. So here are four reasons the Hoos take the all-important game, and four that Louisville snaps their seven-game winning streak.
Why Virginia wins
1. Louisville’s shaky on the road
The Cardinals have four ACC losses this year; three of them have come on the road. Those three have come to Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Obviously the Seminoles are up there as one of the best five or so teams in college hoops.
Clemson and Georgia Tech are something of a different story. Both teams have had rough seasons, and both hover around .500 in ACC play.
So it’s safe to say that Louisville has a pair of questionable road losses. And inconsistent is not something you want to be when you step onto the court at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos haven’t lost on their home court for one and a half months, and might not again this season.
2. Mamadi Diakite’s on a roll
A roll, indeed. Virginia 6-foot-9 leading scorer has taken the idea to a whole new level. He has 11 straight games in which he’s tallied double digits points. I’d say that stat speaks for itself.
Even more telling is that Virginia’s record is 10-1 in that stretch. It’s not that complicated: When Mamadi plays well, Virginia plays well.
He hasn’t been exactly incredible—in fact, he’s been the leading scorer in only three out of those 11 games—but at this snail’s pace, it’s still pretty damn impressive. Mamadi looks as if he can score at will when he’s at his best. And even when he’s not, he can score enough.
Keeping up his current rate would be enough to make a big contribution on Virginia’s potential path to success.
3. The Cards don’t have enough consistent scorers
Only one of Louisville’s 15 players averages double figures this season. If you can’t guess who that is than you’re clearly not watching enough college basketball (Hint: It rhymes with Nordan Jwora). The reliance on only one player could be Louisville’s downfall if/when he gets shut down by Mamadi Diakite.
But then again, that was the theory last time, and see how that turned out. Louisville still scored 80 points. They had three scorers in double-digits that day, with Nwora’s 22 leading the charge. But a different set of events led to that.
Those would be Louisville’s ridiculous shooting performance in the first half, which included eight made threes. Yeah, I would say that shooting of that extreme would be enough to make up for any deficiencies shown by the team as a whole. Those deficiencies are going to bubble up to the surface without the absurd three-point shooting to cover it up.
4. The Hoos are getting points from different places
Jay Huff’s heroics over the last couple of games have been well documented. They provided a deviation from the usual main scorers of Diakite, Clark, Woldetensae (though not recently) and Key. More importantly, they provided a boost otherwise unexpected.
Before Huff, it was Casey Morsell with seven points against Virginia Tech and the same number against Pittsburgh. Before that, it was Huff again with 14 against BC, and then Morsell with 10 against Carolina.
The point is that there are other scorers on this team besides the usual suspects — it’s just a question as to whether they show up to any given game. Even eight points from both of the prior two, and a couple each from Stattmann and Caffarro, and it’s a whole different game.
The Hoos have been getting those game changing boosts recently, and doing so again would be massive.
Why Louisville wins
1. Jordan Nwora could be too much
I’m not going to tell you whether or not Jordan Nwora is going to have one of his 25-point performances to sink the Hoos. What I will say is that his matchup against Mamadi is going to be one you don’t want to miss, and there’s a good chance Nwora comes out on top.
Unlike Mamadi, Nwora has not epitomized consistency in the last month. He’s scored in single digits on two occasions in his last nine games. Both of those have come in losses. And his other lowest point value in that stretch also came in a loss. What does that tell us?
It tells us that, like Mamadi, when he plays well his team follows suit.
2. They’re solid from deep
What Louisville did to Virginia from deep last time has already been mentioned, so I won’t dwell on it anymore. Rather, let’s take a look at how Louisville shoots from three in a normal game.
And that is extremely well. The Cards shoot 38% from behind the arc. That’s not a ridiculous number, but it is a solid one and adds another dimension to their game. Included in that equation is Ryan McMahon, who hits 43% of his tries from three, and of course Nwora at 40%.
Even Center Stephen Enoch has been known to shoot the three, having made eight of his 25 tries this year (32%). So while not something crazy, Louisville is able to hit threes at a high clip, something that we’ve seen time and time again be the downfall of the packline.
3. Louisville has too many weapons
First you have Nwora, who’s likely set to be an All-ACC pick. He should draw the assignment of Mamadi Diakite. Who wins that battle remains to be seen, but taking Mamadi away leaves Huff on Enoch.
On paper, that’s a fair matchup. After all, Jay is three inches taller and only eight pounds lighter. But Enoch is a load. He is a big, big man, one capable of just pushing and pushing until he can put the ball in the basket.
And there’s still the problem of Malik Williams, the 6-foot-11 Forward. Duties on him will be passed around between Huff and Caffarro when he’s on the floor.
Other than that, the matchups could go either way. Sutton vs Key and McMahon vs Clark are up in the air. But Louisville’s influx of big players could be too much again.
4. Virginia could have serious scoring problems
I think it’s a safe bet to say that any fan of college basketball—passive or obsessive observer—has heard of Virginia’s offensive woes. Yes, the Hoos have bounced back, and yes, when they put it all together they are honestly as good as almost any.
But the fact remains that they fail to put it together a lot. Just Wednesday, they scored 46 points in 58 possessions. That’s 0.79 points per possession, which is bad, to put it lightly.
Despite going through those great offensive stretches, this is still a team that goes dormant on offense at times. You’re deluding yourself by thinking otherwise.
That, coupled with the good Louisville defense, could make it difficult to score. Whatever happens, it promises to be a good one.
Louisville at Virginia tips at 4:00 ET on ESPN.