Coming off of a massive home victory over the formerly fifth-ranked Florida State Seminoles, Virginia returns to action at home against Clemson on Wednesday night. Clemson is 11-10 overall and owns a 5-6 record in the ACC, currently in a tie for sixth. They’re coming off an eight-point road loss at the hands of Wake Forest. It’s set to be a crucial game—as nearly all of Virginia’s remaining ones are—as the Hoos look to build momentum.
Why Virginia will win
1. Clemson won’t be able to score
Back to their usual spot at the top of KenPom’s AdjD rankings, Virginia is playing it’s trademark fantastic defense. Meanwhile, Clemson stands at 192nd on the offensive side of things. That’s just not good enough to beat as stout a defensive team as the one Tony Bennett puts on the court year after year. Clemson barely squeaked over the 40 point threshold against Wake, scoring 44. Despite being just one result, that number’s not going to get much higher against Virginia.
2. Mamadi Diakite will continue his great play
Mamadi Diakite’s points in the last five games: 19, 16, 8, 17, 16. There’s one outlier in that group, which I’ll choose to ignore. But one thing that you can’t ignore is that Mamadi is playing his best basketball of the season right now. He hasn’t had a stretch as productive all season (or all of his career, for that matter), and there’s no reason for it to stop. Of Clemson’s six players averaging over 20 minutes per game, five of them are listed as guards, and none of them are taller than Virginia’s Guinean forward. That bodes well, as Mamadi can use his frame to make moves around the basket and score points.
3. Virginia doesn’t lose to Clemson in Charlottesville
The Tigers have faced the Hoos 32 times to date. Virginia has won 23 of those games, which already points in the right direction. The stats become even more damning when you look at the games that take place in C-Ville; Virginia’s taken 13 of 15 in JPJ. Even more noteworthy? The last nine games have gone to the defending national champs. That streak will end at some point, but it likely won’t be Wednesday night.
Why Clemson will win
1. They can beat good teams
The January 14th win over Duke may have been one in a, well, long time, but it was impressive nonetheless. The Tigers also boast a one-point win over Syracuse just a week ago. Both wins did occur in LittleJohn Coliseum, but it shows that they’re capable of knocking off a high-caliber team. Virginia is certainly not a high-caliber team, though the game is on the road, so presents a new challenge. Regardless, any team that can knock off Duke is one to be reckoned with.
2. They’re decent on defense
By no measure is Clemson a top defensive team. They are, however, competent. This year, competent is all that’s been needed to take down Virginia at times. Thy’re 43rd in AdjD per KenPom, and compared with Virginia’s current 247th ADjO ranking…. yeah. Tony Bennett is finally coaxing some offense out of his team, so it’ll be interesting to see the offensive production—or otherwise—that Virginia puts forth.
3. Aamir Simms is underrated
Meet Aamir Simms, Junior forward on the Clemson University men’s basketball team. If you don’t know who he is yet, you will at about 7:01 on February 5. He only averages 13 points, yes, but he’s so much better than his stats suggest. Every few games, for whatever reason he’ll only take a couple shots, which means that he doesn’t score very many points, hence the relatively low PPG average. Don’t let that deter you for the reality that he’s a very good player. He has five 20+ point games to his name this season (including 25 against Duke), and averages nearly 8 rebounds a game. If he has a great game, it could derail the Virginia train as it chugs towards the NCAA tournament.
So who will win the game Wednesday night? Let us know what you think in the comments below.