Taking on Louisville on Saturday, Virginia looked as if they could beat anybody in the country. Pouring in threes, taking hard drives to the basket, and generally scoring the ball well, nobody without prior knowledge of the team would have counted them out of the NCAA tournament. Those tournament hopes, however, would take a big dive with a loss to unranked and nationally unheralded Notre Dame.
There’s reason to think that the Virginia team that was on the floor at the Yum! Center on Saturday afternoon could knock off any team in the nation; yet the team that wore “Virginia” on their jerseys prior to that game appeared to be vulnerable to loss even at the hands of the weakest of opponents. Which team shows up on Tuesday night could well be the difference.
Why Virginia will win
1. Kihei Clark is on the rise
The sophomore point guard’s play has spiked dramatically over the last couple of weeks. He’s scored in double digits in four out of his last five games, the inexplicable one-point outing against Clemson being the outlier. He’s also dished out 7 and 10 assists in the two most recent games. The simple truth is that when Kihei is at his best, Virginia as a team is at their best.
Those nifty little drives to the rim are so effective in jump-starting the Wahoo offense when all other routes are shut down. And the way Kihei has been able to use little body movements to get space for shots is pro-level. He’s upped his play by large margins recently, and that improvement will play a big role on Tuesday night and going forward.
2. Notre Dame plays mediocre defense
Before their last game, a drab 61-57 win over Clemson, the Irish had given up more than 70 points on six straight occasions. Oof. And it’s not as if the Irish play a high-tempo game. They rank 178th in Adjusted Tempo, per Kenpom.com, smack dab in the middle of Division one. So giving up so many points is not a result of a high-speed, run-and-gun game. The Irish just play bad defense.
Without a doubt, this is good news for any team standing opposite them. One could argue that it’s especially good for a Virginia team with questionable offensive consistency. Let’s be honest, the three-point spree of Saturday is likely not going to be replicated again this year, and it surely won’t happen again three days later. So a shaky Notre Dame defense will help a similarly unpredictable Virginia offense.
3. Hoos can shoot?
The formerly mentioned three-point shooting explosion was well-documented and applauded by UVA fans across the twitterverse. But, I also just told you that it’s not going to happen again in any way, shape, or form in the near future. However, that’s not to say that Virginia can’t shoot like any other team can.
Shooting 35% from deep is an attainable goal for any team. The Hoos don’t need to be hitting 50% of threes, they just need to be hitting some. Tomas Woldetensae doesn’t need to be pouring in seven threes per game, but he can hit 3 of 7. Multiple players from Virginia have been hitting their fair share of shots from deep recently, and that will help them if they are to defeat Notre Dame.
Why Notre Dame will win
1. John Mooney can’t be stopped
A monster, a beast, a giant, a brute… Okay, you get the point. John Mooney is bordering on unstoppable for the Irish. Undisputably the most consistent player in the ACC—and probably all of D1—Mooney is the anchor for the Irish night in and night out. He’s scored in double digits in all but one of his games this season. That’s incredible.
Mooney averages 16.5 points per game, and 13 rebounds. The man is a walking, talking double-double. Virginia’s players—namely Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff—are going to have to find some way to keep him off of the glass. More likely, they will fail in that attempt, giving Mooney and Notre Dame increased opportunities to score.
2. Notre Dame comes in with momentum
The Irish have won four games in a row, dating back to January. Yes, they’ve come exclusively against the bottom, weaker half of the ACC. A win is a win though, and they’ve given the Irish momentum before they come to C-Ville. No, Wins over Wake, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Clemson aren’t the same as wins over, say, Florida State or Duke.
But a Notre Dame team that struggled to close out games (sound familiar?) earlier in the season is now coming into their own. Facing a confident team is always scary, and the upcoming game is no exception.
3. They can score
Notre Dame’s recent defensive struggles have already been discussed, as has their recent winning streak. Put two and two together without even looking at scores and you realize they must be scoring a whole lot as well. Looking at the scores confirms that assumption. The Irish had scored over 80 points on five straight occasions before they traveled to Clemson on Sunday.
Rex Pflueger, in the midst of a statistically awful season, finally exploded for 18 Sunday. Meanwhile, TJ Gibbs has not struggled to score it, averaging just over 14 points on the season. Other players on Notre Dame can put the ball in the hoop when called upon, Prentiss Hubb and Dane Goodwin being the most prevalent of them. It will be interesting to see how a rejuvenated Notre Dame offense fares against the ever-fantastic UVA defense.
Notre Dame at Virginia will tip at 9:00 EST on ESPN2.