After a 73-66 win Saturday over Pittsburgh, Virginia will travel to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will be the second opponent in what is Virginia’s toughest five-game stretch of the season, one that will culminate with games against North Carolina, Florida State, and Duke.
It may not seem like a difficult group of games, but with the ACC in another down year, the run of games that Virginia embarked on Saturday is about as hard as it gets.
Starting off that period with two successive wins would be a good sign, especially against a Georgia Tech team that has shown it can play with—and beat—the big boys.
The first meeting
Virginia narrowly escaped their first time out against Georgia Tech, winning 64-62 by virtue of a Michael Devoe miss at the buzzer. The Hoos trailed for most of the game, finally taking the lead with five minutes to play and never relinquishing it.
It was a rough offensive outing for the hosts, but Georgia Tech didn’t make it any easier on the other side of the floor. They hit tough shot after tough shot for the first three-quarters of the game, cruising along on the backs of Jose Alvarado and Jordan Usher.
Alvarado went for 20 points, eight assists, and six steals, while Usher tallied 19 points, six rebounds, and three blocks. Moses Wright also turned in a solid performance, accumulating 13 points, five blocks, and four boards.
The trio did that in spite of Virginia having one of their better defensive outings of the season. Georgia Tech’s offensive output came crashing back to earth once they stopped hitting everything they looked at, scoring only six points over the last eight minutes.
That dry spell was essential to Virginia’s eventual victory, because the Hoos had a fairly poor offensive showing.
Aside from Sam Hauser and Jay Huff, no player reached double figures scoring. Of course, Hauser and Huff combined for 40, so there wasn’t all that much room for others to chip in anyway.
Still, Virginia had eight shots blocked, the highest of the season and a striking six more than the season average of 2.0. The Hoos were seemingly undeterred by the amount of times their shots got swatted, continuing to drive straight into the heart of Georgia Tech’s defense for the duration of the 40 minutes.
In the end, they prevailed on account of Huff and Hauser’s explosions and the solid defense. That blueprint is a good one to follow if they are to come out on top a second time.
What Georgia Tech has done since then
Georgia Tech’s four games since their loss in Charlottesville create a picture of a team that can most aptly be described as inconsistent.
The Jackets lost a close one on the road against Duke, before rebounding nicely with an 11-point win over Florida State. They proceeded to lose by 16 at Louisville, and then came all the way back from a 15-point halftime deficit to snatch an 82-80 win over Notre Dame.
So why the crazy fluctuation in results?
The simple explanation is that the Yellow Jackets are often at a coaching disadvantage. A team that starts four seniors and a junior should not be beating 16th-ranked Florida State by 11 one game and then losing to unranked Louisville by 16 the next. That’s just one example, but you get the point: Josh Pastner should be doing a much better job directing his veteran team.
If anything, that is the one thing that gives Virginia a massive edge in this game. The Hoos haven’t always played to their potential, but if there’s one thing to always have confidence in it is Tony Bennett. When it comes to the two guys controlling their respective huddles Virginia will always have the advantage.
But it goes deeper than that. When Jose Alvarado does not play well, Georgia Tech does not play well. The most perplexing result from Georgia Tech’s past four games is easily the 16-point loss to Louisville, and it’s no surprise that that was Alvarado’s only game not scoring 19 or more points.
In short: stop Alvarado, win the game. Needless to say, Moses Wright, Jordan Usher, and Michael Devoe are also crucial pieces of this Georgia Tech roster. But Alvarado has been the undisputed star and stopping him is the easiest route to winning the game.
The prediction
It shouldn’t take much argument to convince one that Virginia’s offense has taken a step down from its days of dropping 85 on Clemson or hitting 14 threes against Syracuse. Since the 81-point outing against Syracuse, the Hoos have scored 51, 64, and 73 points.
Those numbers are trending in the right direction, but there’s still a lot to be desired from an offensive standpoint. Georgia Tech is a pretty weak defensive team, and after learning valuable offensive lessons—such as not to drive straight at Moses Wright—from the first meeting Virginia should be better equipped to defeat it.
Which Georgia Tech team shows up on offense will be a big deciding factor, but the model presented by the first game is a good one to go by. Moses Wright will likely have success inside, and Georgia Tech’s guards need to have good shooting nights to keep their offense running smoothly.
Ultimately, this game could go either way. Virginia is undoubtedly the better team, but when things are clicking for Georgia Tech the Yellow Jackets become really tough to stop.
Virginia has underperformed in their last few games though, and it just feels like they’re due for another offensive explosion. With that in mind, the safest bet is that Virginia will emerge victorious and improve to 10-1 in the ACC.
Image – Virginia Athletics