Virginia heads to Yum! Center for clash with Louisville

After defeating Miami at home on Monday, Virginia will travel to Louisville to conclude their regular season.  The Hoos had lost three in a row before facing Miami, but they stopped the bleeding against the Hurricanes and will now look to build off the victory.

They will get a chance to do so in the KFC Yum! Center, a place that holds many happy memories for the visiting Wahoos. The Yum! Center was the site of that incredible 2019 Elite Eight victory, and is also the place where De’Andre Hunter banked in a three to win at the buzzer the year before.

The Cardinals were the last team Virginia faced last season, and a year later they will meet again with postseason implications on the line.

The opponent

It’s tough to get a gauge on Louisville, even at this point in the season, as the Cardinals have played a mere 18 games and been hampered by COVID-19 cancellations throughout.  They’ve only participated in 12 ACC contests, the fewest among the 15 teams, and currently sit in fourth place at 8-4.

Chris Mack’s squad has also caught a couple of unlucky breaks recently.  They lost Malik Williams again just three games after he returned from a year-long injury, the senior forward averaging five points and six rebounds in his trio of outings.  It’s been tough for them to find continuity this season, five of Louisville’s last eight games having been canceled.

The Cards have won two in a row though, the latest coming by seven points over Duke in Cameron Indoor.  Carlik Jones led the Cards in that game, scoring 25 points and pulling down six boards.  The senior guard has been the go-to guy all season, averaging 17.6 points per game to go with 4.5 assists.

He is joined in the backcourt by David Johnson, a 6-foot-5 sophomore that scores 12.5 points per game and shoots the three at a 39% clip.  He is among the only good shooters on the roster, however, Louisville shooting a collective 29.5% from three in ACC play — the worst percentage in the conference.

That’s a good sign, but the Cardinals excel in the paint, and the Hoos have at times played faulty interior defense this season.  

Louisville leads the ACC in defensive rebounds per game and is second in total boards, yet interestingly are dead last in blocks per game.  That will play to the advantage of Virginia’s undersized guards.

Despite their affinity for getting the ball inside, the Cards are a pretty small team.  With the exception of now-injured Malik Williams, the tallest player to play against Duke was 6-8.  Jae’Lyn Withers and Samuell Williamson are the ones tasked with scoring inside, using brute strength rather than height to take care of opponents.

This will be a problem for the Hoos, who have rightfully been lamented as ‘soft’ many times this season.  In order to succeed on the defensive end, they will need to handle Louisville’s bigs and hope that the Cardinals don’t get hot from deep.  On offense, they will have to break down Chris Mack’s version of the packline defense and knock down their open shots.

The prediction

This is going to be a fascinating game regardless of the outcome.  Virginia is emerging from a sticky period, and on the other side of the ball Louisville has battled through COVID breaks to put together a solid season.  There is also the added factor of fans, UofL allowing 3,000 of them to fill their arena.

Based on recent play, there is no question that the Cards are the smart pick.  They’ve recorded two solid victories in a row, pulling one out in OT against Duke and by 12 versus Notre Dame.  The prior game, a 45-point loss to North Carolina, can be ignored as it was predated by a 19-day hiatus.

If both teams play their best, Virginia will emerge on top.  But the Hoos have not come close to touching their best over the last couple weeks.  By contrast, Louisville is playing at a higher level than their ranked opponents.

But it’s not all bad news for Virginia.  Tony Bennett has continued to tinker with lineups, and he seemed to have found something against Miami.  Playing Reece Beekman and Kihei Clark separately worked to surprising effect, and Justin McKoy provided a lift off the bench.  Meanwhile, Sam Hauser has never faltered, maintaining his impressive shooting and making a case for ACC Player of the Year.

Virginia is certainly headed back in the right direction after beating Miami, and they’ll hope to continue the yearly tradition of ending the season with a win over Louisville.

Image – Virginia Athletics