After an embarrassing loss at Florida State on Monday, Virginia will travel to Durham for a matchup with Duke. The Hoos will look to put Monday’s blowout in the rearview mirror and bounce back against a Duke squad that has barely cleared .500 for the season.
A win is essential, both for NCAA Tournament seeding and the ongoing ACC title race.
The opponent
Florida State’s win over Virginia was far from the only big college basketball news on Monday. For many, FSU’s statement victory was overshadowed by the surprising announcement that Duke star Jalen Johnson was “opting-out” of the regular season in order to pursue his NBA dreams.
The decision proved contentious among hoops fans, some supporting Johnson’s decision but others calling him a quitter. Regardless of your stance, it’s a fact that the freshman will never wear a Duke uniform again.
At first, that seemed like it would be the final nail in the coffin of Duke’s season. Prior to his departure, they were an even 8-8 for the season and 6-6 in conference play. Losing a player that was averaging 11.2 points per game made the outlook even bleaker for the Blue Devils.
Yet in their first game without him, Duke went into Winston-Salem and ran Wake Forest out of their own gym. They essentially did to Wake what FSU did to UVA, dropping 45 points in the first half and cruising to a 24-point win.
Mike Kryzyzewski’s team looked remarkably loose in that game, playing freely in what turned out to be their largest win of the season.
A couple days later, Syracuse Coach Jim Boeheim made some interesting comments about Johnson and Duke. Boeheim said on his weekly radio show that “[Johnson] was hurting them so they actually are much better now without him,” and “he was just doing some things and keeping other people from playing that are good.”
Based on the results of one game, Boeheim is correct. Duke’s game against Wake Forest was quite clearly their best of the season. But the impact of Johnson’s withdrawal cannot be accurately judged on one game.
Still, it is worth noting that Johnson’s decision gives the rest of the Duke players something of a clean slate. From their standpoint, it’s hard to ignore that the first game without him was their best of the season. That thought is going to instill the Duke players with confidence, confidence that gives them a decided edge over a Virginia team still feeling the sting from a big loss.
Aside from that note, however, most of the advantages lie with the Hoos. Duke isn’t a bad offensive team, but their weak defense should be a nice change for Virginia after spending 40 minutes trying to score on the five skyscrapers that made up FSU’s lineup.
Duke also lacks the big man that other teams have used to such devastating effect against the Hoos. They do have a seven-footer in Mark Williams, but his playing time is limited and Virginia’s forwards should have no trouble dealing with him.
Matthew Hurt has been the standout for the Blue Devils, scoring 18.3 points per game and shooting 46% from beyond the arc. If Hurt gets hot it could spell trouble for Virginia.
Elsewhere, look for DJ Steward, Jeremy Roach and Jordan Goldwire to carry out the ball-handling duties. Of the three, Steward is the only prolific scorer. None of the three shoots the ball very well, though Goldwire is a respectable defender and the rare Duke senior.
The Blue Devils pieced things together against Wake, but their play has been scattered the rest of the season.
The prediction
The threat that Duke’s renewed confidence brings notwithstanding, Virginia is the easy pick here. The Hoos will come into Cameron Indoor in search of vengeance after the loss to Florida State, and that’s just as dangerous as Duke’s confidence.
Virginia should have their way on the offensive end, especially if the guards attack off the dribble. Trey Murphy and Sam Hauser seem poised to continue their good run of play, and both should win their respective matchups with ease.
Tomas Woldetensae has also reentered the discussion in recent games, canning a number of threes over the last couple of games. He would provide a nice spark if that continues.
And let it not be forgotten that Jay Huff tends to bring the pain against the team from his old hometown. He was one rebound away from a triple-double last year, scoring 15 points and recording 10 monstrous blocks.
One can always count on Huff to perform against Duke, and his performance this year will likely be accompanied by a win.
Image – Virginia Athletics