Virginia has struggled through a rough period, dropping three games in a row over the past couple weeks. They’re back in action against Miami after five days off, seeking an end to the losing streak that has tarnished what was previously a solid season.
The Hoos and the Hurricanes will do battle at 6:00 in John Paul Jones Arena, both looking to break their longest losing stretches of the year.
The opponent
Think Virginia’s had it tough? Think again. Miami has lost five in a row and nine of the last 10, placing them squarely in last place in the ACC. The Hurricanes have been without Chris Lykes, their best player, since December.
They only have three conference wins, coming by a combined 13 points over Duke, Louisville, and NC State. And their metrics aren’t any better, the Canes coming in at 144 on KenPom and 167 in the NET.
Miami gets by largely by the grace of strong guard play, the trio of Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, and Elijah Olaniyi averaging a collective 41.6 points per game. That’s a very significant portion of the scoring for a team that averages just 66 points per game.
But they still have the brute strength in the frontcourt that has proven so effective against Virginia. Deng Gak is a 6-foot-11, 220 pound junior that is sure to give Virginia fits down low. He works well in tandem with Anthony Walker, who stands at 6-9, 210, and is the only forward that Jim Larranaga starts.
Walker is a quick, strong player that has recently hit his stride. He’s reached double figures scoring in eight of his last nine games, recording double-doubles in two of the last four. Walker is a serious threat, and is not to be taken lightly.
The rest of Miami’s team should not be overlooked, the individual players looking dangerous even if they’ve struggled to gel as a team. Virginia’s one-on-one defense has been severely lacking, and Miami’s personnel seems well set-up to take advantage of that.
What they likely won’t be able to exploit is Virginia’s failure to defend the three-point line on a consistent basis. The Hoos have given up far too many open threes, but Miami is shooting a meager 31% from deep in conference play.
It’s tough to break down the packline when you can’t shoot from the outside, even if the trademark defense has been prone to the occasional breakdown this season. We’ll see if Miami is capable of pulling off what Florida State, Duke, and NC State have managed to do.
The prediction
To preface this prediction, I’d like to make clear that I predicted comfortable wins over Duke and NC State, and we all saw how that turned out. I did refrain from making a pick for the FSU game because I thought it was too close to call — which I guess turned out to be an incorrect pick anyway.
So maybe I’m not the foremost authority when it comes to choosing a victor when Virginia plays basketball.
But I’m certainly not going to be alone in picking the Hoos to take down Miami. Virginia opened as 15-point favorites, and that line has for some reason been pushed to 15.5.
By no means should you be taking your betting advice from me, but I’d advise taking Miami on a 15-point spread. The Hoos will win, but the Canes will probably cover.
Here’s to hoping that Tony Bennett goes back to the two-big lineup that saw such success against NC State. Jay Huff and Francisco Caffaro worked well together in that game, and it stands to reason that they will do so again. It would also be nice to see Justin McKoy get minutes. He fought tooth and nail against NC State, and has proven his determination and heart multiple times this season. It would be gratifying to see that rewarded.
Elsewhere, Sam Hauser will look to continue his dominant play, and Trey Murphy is due for a good outing. Tomas Woldetensae is also set to return to the court, and that should provide a lift for a team in need of another hot outside shooter.
Both the Hoos and the Canes are riding losing streaks, but in all likelihood Virginia will be the one to break theirs first.
Image – Virginia Athletics