After a member of Louisville’s basketball program tested positive for COVID, Virginia’s schedule was shuffled to accommodate a matchup with Pittsburgh.
The Hoos got a nice bounce-back win on the road over NC State on Wednesday, but the Pitt team that will take the floor in John Paul Jones Arena is markedly more talented. The game will be another good opportunity to evaluate a Virginia team that is still finding itself, even as we tick towards March.
The opponent
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Jeff Capel’s Panthers. They started the season with an embarrassing loss to Saint Francis (a team that lost to Virginia by 25), before rattling off a string of wins.
At one point, Pitt was 8-2 with victories over Duke, Syracuse, and Northwestern. They were garnering national recognition, even looking like possible ACC title contenders.
But then came the losing streak. A tough loss on the road against Wake, a 10-point defeat at home to UNC, and then an inexplicable 26-point beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame. With their season falling apart and a game with a hot Virginia Tech team looming, it seemed that Pitt was headed down a dark—but not all that unfamiliar—road.
Somehow they managed to pull off the U-turn, taking down the 16th-ranked Hokies by 11 to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. That win should actually serve to benefit Virginia, as it makes this game less of a must-win for Pitt. Had Pitt lost, they would’ve needed a signature victory to maintain their hold on the bubble; now a victory over the Hoos is less essential and more of a bonus.
That is not to say, however, that Pitt won’t be bringing everything they’ve got to Charlottesville. Pitt’s roster contains a few players who are capable of wreaking havoc on the Virginia defense.
Justin Champagnie is the most noteworthy of these, a 6-foot-6 sophomore forward that leads the ACC in points and rebounds. Champagnie averages a double-double, scoring 19.3 points per game to go with 12.2 boards.
Under any circumstances Champagnie is a major threat, but his presence becomes even more troubling in the context of Virginia’s current defense. For the most part, the Hoos have been playing good defense, but they have developed a weak point when it comes to opposing big men.
Virginia surrendered 29 and 23 points apiece to Keve Aluma and Jericole Hellems last week. They had no answer to either forward, allowing them to dominate down low as Jay Huff was frustrated into foul trouble.
If two good ACC players can do that to the Hoos, I shudder to think what the conference’s undisputed best player can do. Virginia was also handily outrebounded by NC State, and as the nation’s fifth-best rebounder (per NCAA.com), Champagnie will also cause problems for Virginia on the glass.
To supplement the beast down low, Jeff Capel also has two skilled guards at his disposal. Xavier Johnson runs point, scoring 14.5 points per game and leading the ACC with 6.1 assists. He’s a quick, physical guard, but is not as proficient a decision-maker.
Yet he works well alongside Au’diese Toney, who is surprisingly quick for his 6-foot-6, 210-pound frame. The one thing that this Pitt trio has in abundance is athleticism, and Toney epitomizes that. He’s going to be a real matchup issue for Virginia’s smaller guards.
Toney may be on the taller side for a guard, but Pitt lacks a true big man. The tallest player in the main rotation is just 6-foot-9, a full four inches shorter than Jay Huff.
Past the aforementioned three players, the Panthers don’t get much production out of the rest of the team. Nullifying just one of them disrupts their whole offensive scheme.
But that is easier said than done, and Pitt’s offensive firepower will be a tough test for this Virginia defense.
The prediction
After that mostly grim section, I’d really like to make some reassuring statement about why Virginia will win. Unfortunately, I can’t do that.
The problem is that there are just so many variables in this game. Every college basketball game carries some degree of uncertainty, but this one more so than usual. Both teams have been decidedly inconsistent this season, playing 40 minutes of rock-solid basketball one game before looking lost the next.
For Virginia, the keys to victory are pretty simple: Take advantage of Pitt’s height by feeding Jay Huff, shoot the ball well, and slow down the trio of Champagnie, Johnson, and Toney.
Do those three things, and suddenly it becomes very difficult to defeat the Hoos. Of course, fail to execute any one of them and the balance tilts towards the visiting Panthers.
This meeting with Pitt should give us a better idea of where Virginia truly is after a couple of spotty outings. It’s also an important game with regard to the ACC title race, with the potential of going three games up in the win column over Florida State (who is on a COVID break).
Really though, it’s another chance to improve against a quality team as we count down the days toward March.
Image – Virginia Athletics