Virginia entered the Dean Dome on Saturday with hopes of taking down North Carolina and extending their win streak to three. Instead, the Hoos suffered a deflating loss, falling by 16 points to the dominant Tar Heels. The game marked the conclusion of the three-game away stretch Virginia was dealt to open the new year.
Now, the Hoos will return to the familiar confines of JPJ to take on a flailing Virginia Tech team. With Tony Bennett’s squad in need of a rebound, the Hokies seem like the ideal opponent.
But rivalry games are never a given. There’s always an element of uncertainty in these games. And with Virginia still yet to prove itself, the Hoos will need to submit a good performance in order to secure the win and get the train back on the rails.
The opponent
Virginia Tech was heralded preseason as a dark-horse candidate in the ACC, and even nationally. The Hokies looked solid early on, winning a string of five “buy” games, but have since faltered. They’re currently mired in a nine-game stretch in which they have lost six games.
None of those losses are bad (they’re certainly not as bad as losses to JMU or Navy), but the Hokies have produced few positive results. They’re currently 0-3 in the ACC.
Some familiar faces will don Virginia Tech colors for the game. Keve Aluma, who dissected Virginia for 29 points and 10 rebounds in last year’s contest, is back. So is Hunter Cattoor, who scored 15 points in that game, as well as Nahiem Alleyne and Justyn Mutts.
Aluma is definitely the one to watch. He’s been Mike Young’s most effective offensive threat, scoring 15.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Also of note is his build. At 6’9”, 235 pounds, Aluma is similar in stature to Armando Bacot. Going up against Aluma so soon after the Bacot fiasco will show whether Bennett and Virginia have learned anything from the UNC loss.
Of the rest of the Hokies’ best players, Cattoor is the three-point shooter, Alleyne is the shifty guard and Mutts is the athletic forward.
The Hokies stake claim to impressive KenPom stats. They rank 39th on offense and 29th on defense. They also play at the 335th-fastest tempo (Virginia, of course, is the slowest team in the nation, at 358), so expect a slow, gritty game. On the season, Virginia Tech shoots a formidable 39% from deep, but in their three ACC losses they’ve only connected on 30% of three-point attempts. If the Hokies rediscover their stroke, it could spell trouble for Virginia.
The prediction
If someone had offered Virginia fans a 2-1 record over the Syracuse-Clemson-North Carolina road gauntlet, most would have taken it in a heartbeat. So despite the unfortunate defeat to the Tar Heels, the outlook from a Virginia perspective should be positive.
The Hoos displayed their offensive firepower in the Syracuse and Clemson games, and though it was lacking against Carolina, Virginia still seems to have made inroads on offense. The defense has not been quite so robust, at least compared to past Bennett teams.
Still, Virginia is the obvious choice to win this game. The Hoos are on home turf and boast better results in the past couple of weeks than their opponent.
Virginia and Virginia Tech met only once last year, a 65-51 Hokie win, so it’s been over 20 months since a Wahoo victory in this matchup. A win is long overdue.
Virginia Tech at Virginia will tip at 9 pm EST and air on ESPN2.
Image – Virginia Athletics