On Wednesday at 6:00 PM EST, the 23rd-ranked Virginia Cavaliers will be in Purcell Pavilion to take on Notre Dame for their first conference game of the season.
The matchup carries much significance, as it is easily the most important game that the Hoos have played this season. It’s important that Virginia gets off on the right foot in the ACC, and also imperative that they cast aside last week’s blowout and focus on conference play.
The game will also set something of a precedent for the rest of conference play, because Notre Dame’s status as one of the lesser teams in the ACC makes this game one that the Hoos are expected to win.
With this being only the second quality opponent that has taken the court against Virginia this year, hopefully the Hoos can put to bed some niggling concerns about the overall quality of the team. But before we get to Virginia, let’s talk about Notre Dame and what to expect from the Irish.
The opponent
Put simply, it’s been a very up and down start to the season for Notre Dame. They have three wins and four losses over seven games, and have yet to grab two W’s in a row.
The record is slightly deceiving though, with the losses coming to Michigan State, Duke, Purdue, and Ohio State—all good teams. The wins, however, are less notable, coming over Detroit, Kentucky (who is 1-6, in case you hadn’t noticed the dumpster fire that continues to burn in Lexington), and Bellarmine.
None of those wins have been convincing, which is not a good sign early on for Mike Brey. The defense has been the real problem, the Irish allowing 70+ points in all but one game. KenPom ranks said defense at 187th in the nation, so suffice it to say that this is something that Tony Bennett will look to exploit.
With that said, Notre Dame has looked a lot better than expected on the offensive side of things. Prentiss Hubb and Dane Goodwin lead the way, two players who combine to take about 46% of the Irish’s total shots. Shutting them down will be key, and while Kihei Clark can be trusted to take one, the other guards rotating in and out for Virginia will need to be solid on the other.
Trey Wertz and Cormac Ryan are also players to watch for the Irish. Wertz is an explosive transfer from Santa Clara, while Ryan is the resident three-point shooter. 41 out of his 67 field goals attempted this season have been from beyond the arc, meaning that despite being a rather one-dimensional player, if he gets hot it could spell trouble.
The other player of note is Nate Laszewski, who is doing an admirable job attempting to fill John Mooney’s shoes. I say ‘attempting’ because it’s incredibly difficult to live up to the legacy that Mooney left behind when he stepped off campus last year.
Regardless, Laszewski is a 6-10, 227 pound forward who is a cause for concern. Jay Huff should be able to handle him, but Laszewski still represents a significant threat down low.
What Virginia needs to do
There are—as anybody who has watched Virginia basketball this year knows—many problems that need to be addressed within this basketball team. Instead of going over all of them (because that would be a rather tedious process), let’s just highlight a couple that apply specifically to this game.
Firstly, the defense needs to be shored up big time. While this year’s defense will never ascend to the heights of its predecessor, there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Unfortunately, there is no longer a standout defender to bail out the boat when it starts to sink. Sure, Kihei Clark is a great on-ball defender, but there is no Mamadi Diakite or Braxton Key anymore to come flashing across the floor to save the day.
What Virginia does have, however, is a group of good, smart athletes that most definitely have the capacity to form a strong defense. Communication and movement have to be on point against Notre Dame, because if Prentiss Hubb is allowed too much breathing room he will no doubt take advantage.
That’s the primary concern, and the most important thing that the Hoos must do to win this game.
Turning now to the other side of the court, Virginia desperately needs somebody to step up on offense. Be it Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, or Kihei Clark, somebody needs to take the initiative and put the ball in the hoop.
Against Kent State, it was Hauser, taking 14 shots and effectively winning the game by himself. Against William & Mary, it was Trey Murphy III scoring 15 points. Against Gonzaga, it was Clark, shooting 14 times and scoring 19 points.
When this doesn’t happen and nobody takes charge, the Virginia offense becomes five guys standing around a basketball court passing the ball in circles. And while Notre Dame plays poor defense, Virginia cannot afford to get stagnant on the offensive end.
The prediction
In a normal year, going on the road to any ACC arena and coming out with a win is a tough task—regardless of opponent. Yet this is no normal year, and with no fans in the stands that advantage is rendered nearly nonexistent.
With that in mind, I think the clear pick here is Virginia. The Hoos have not yet reached the level that they no doubt will, but they are still solid on both sides of the ball, something that cannot be said for Notre Dame.
Virginia is also going to be playing with extra motivation, as they look to get back on the right track after being embarrassed in Fort Worth. This will likely be a close game, but expect Virginia to notch a win in their ACC opener.
Score Prediction: Virginia 79, Notre Dame 72
Image – Virginia Athletics