This is the year where Virginia basketball streaks go to die.
Already this season, the Hoos have seen win streaks against Clemson (11 games), North Carolina (7 games) and Notre Dame (6 games) slip through their fingers. By season’s end, another, more significant streak will almost definitely meet its demise: Virginia’s run of seven made NCAA Tournaments.
It will take an ACC Tournament championship for Virginia to go dancing. But the Hoos have to play nine more games before they head to Brooklyn, and if they are to contest for the title, they’ll have to use those remaining nine games to make some improvements.
That starts with a matchup against Boston College. For all of Virginia’s well-documented struggles, the Hoos have thus far managed to avoid losing back-to-back games. They’ll hope to continue that pattern by beating the Eagles.
The opponent
For a program that appeared confined to the bottom of the ACC standings, Boston College isn’t doing too bad for itself. The Eagles are 4-6 in the conference and 9-11 overall, to mark an acceptable start to Earl Grant’s tenure.
Blemishes, of course, abound on the red-and-gold checkered resume, including losses to Saint Louis, Albany and Rhode Island. But in ACC play, BC mustered an early-season win over Notre Dame, a comeback victory over Clemson and a convincing win against Pittsburgh. They also edged out Virginia Tech, but that’s not news; everyone’s beating the flailing Hokies (and yet, Joe Lunardi persists in keeping them as high as his “next four out”).
KenPom ranks Boston College as the 139th team in the nation, with an offensive ranking of 160 and a defensive ranking of 149. Virginia fans will revel in the knowledge that the Eagles are an awful three-point shooting team. In stark contrast to Virginia’s recent opponents, BC’s 29% average from deep in conference play makes it the worst three-point shooting team in the conference.
Their field goal percentage, a grisly 39%, is also the worst in the league.
Like any team, though, Boston College does have some capable players. The real standout has been senior guard Makai Ashton-Langford, who averages 13 points and 3 assists per game. He’s joined in a solid backcourt trio by sophomore Demarr Langford and freshman Jaeden Zackery.
Up front, the Eagles are a weaker unit. Quinten Post, a seven-footer, is the Eagles’ most efficient player per 40 minutes, but is only trotted out for 20 minutes a game. He and the rest of Boston College’s frontcourt corps are at a disadvantage because defenses don’t have to worry about being burned from three.
That makes Boston College an easy team to defend, while their poor defense offers meek resistance on the other end of the court.
The prediction
Virginia may not have won two in a row since January 4, but I’ve correctly forecasted the outcomes of four consecutive games. And I feel confident I’ll extend that number to five by predicting a Virginia win over Boston College.
Notwithstanding the loss, there were positives to take from the Notre Dame game. Virginia battled back from a 15-point deficit, dominated the glass and simply outworked its opponent. The loss came because Notre Dame can shoot threes and Virginia, well, can’t.
But here is a game where the players on the opposite side of the court are just as bad from beyond the arc. For the first time in a long time, Virginia has encountered a team that shoots worse than it. The hapless Hoos always seem to get teams on their best shooting nights, but still, the three-point barrages of the Notre Dame and NC State games should stay away in this one.
Virginia has appeared listless at times this season, but showed good energy against Notre Dame. Perhaps it’ll make a reappearance against Boston College.
Boston College at Virginia will tip at 6 pm EST and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics