Out of the ashes of 2021, Virginia basketball has been reborn. Or, at least it appeared to be in an encouraging 74-69 New Year’s Day triumph over Syracuse.
Maybe it’s hyperbole to claim one isolated victory as a rebirth, but the win certainly felt that way in contrast with the games it followed. Among those earlier games: A dispiriting 67-50 loss in the first meeting with Clemson that marked the nadir of public opinion about this UVA team. No longer could losses to Navy, Houston and JMU be written off as unlucky; this was an ACC game, at JPJ, against a beatable team. And Virginia was butchered.
But with that game on the other side of the New Year and the Syracuse victory bolstering spirits throughout Charlottesville, the Hoos are ready for another crack at the Tigers.
The first meeting
Clemson went tearing out of the gate in their visit to JPJ, drilling three quick threes in the first few minutes to take an early advantage. Virginia would answer with some triples of their own, but the Clemson lead would gradually grow until the divide was insurmountable. Virginia skidded to a meager 50 points and fell by 17.
The shameful offensive performance had little to do with Clemson’s defense. Though only a year removed from being one of the better defensive teams in the nation, Clemson is not quite so disruptive this season. Virginia’s offensive wounds were almost entirely self-inflicted.
Settling for contested threes became the norm in that contest, Virginia players passing up opportunities to drive in favor of launching deep shots. The result: 27% from three, 37% from the field.
The lone bright spot was Reece Beekman, who exploded onto the scene for 20 points on 7-10 shooting. Under different circumstances, it might have been termed a “coming-out party” for the second-year guard.
On the other side of the floor, the Hoos were less at fault. Clemson sank a bevy of miraculous shots. Among them was a string of threes from Hunter Tyson, who hit three long bombs and tallied 17 points. Leading scorer PJ Hall also chipped in with 11 points.
Virginia’s defense could have been better, but wasn’t the biggest problem. More notable were the rebounding numbers. They tell a story of their own, as Clemson corralled 9 more boards than the Hoos, pulling down 8 offensive rebounds to Virginia’s 2. The Tigers are a fairly tall team, but so is Virginia, and the Hoos should never lose the rebounding battle by that much.
The result was a big loss, deserved but absolutely avoidable.
What needs to improve this time
The rebounding, obviously. The shooting, obviously. The shot selection, obviously.
But in order for the latter two things to come to fruition, the Hoos have to do something else. They have to move the ball.
Against Syracuse, Virginia racked up 22 assists, its most of the season. The zone is more compatible with ball movement and assist-gathering, true, but the resulting offensive output is evidence of what can happen when Virginia makes more passes. Only 7 assists were made in the first game against Clemson; doubling that number would be a huge step toward victory.
More fluidity on offense lends itself to better looks, and higher-percentage shots. This game will be won or lost on the boards and under the “assist” column on the box score.
The prediction
A couple weeks ago, I predicted a Virginia victory. Wrong. The other day, I forecasted a Syracuse win. Wrong. Sort of feels like the beginning of a trend, huh?
Despite my recent, crummy record, I’m going to take another stab at choosing a winner.
And I’m going to say—with no confidence at all, given the aforementioned results—that Virginia will emerge victorious.
This is the point where I’m supposed to provide an explanation for my choice. I should be going back to the analysis, to the stats, to tell you why I picked the way I did. Any number of reasons could be used to support my claim—Clemson is rusty after having not played for 13 days, Virginia will ride the wave of optimism from the Syracuse game to success, Kihei Clark is going to continue his superb play, etc.
Mostly, though, the prediction was based on a feeling. Much of the UVA fanbase is bullish after Sunday’s win, and I guess I’ve been swept up in it all. After the surprise win in the Carrier Dome, there’s a sense that Tony Bennett and the Hoos have turned a corner.
The truth of that sentiment will be exposed soon. If Virginia can waltz out of Littlejohn Coliseum with a second consecutive win, its future will look even brighter. If a relapse occurs, the bleak outlook returns.
All that’s left is to flick on a TV and watch the game unfold.
Virginia at Clemson will tip at 9 pm EST and air on ACCNX.
Image – Virginia Athletics