About two weeks ago, Virginia played Miami and Duke back-to-back. The Hoos won both games and got themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Now, they’re halfway through another two-game series against the Hurricanes and the Blue Devils. They won the first leg, using a second-half rally to beat Miami 74-71. A win over Duke would be tantamount to climbing through the bubble and onto the (projected) bracket.
It would also raise Virginia to a favorable spot just outside the ACC’s top four. Worming through the barrier between fourth and fifth by season’s end would mean a double bye in the upcoming ACC Tournament.
The tangible implications—improving ACCT seed and NCAAT resume—are the storylines dominating discussions of the game. But also of note is the fact that this is Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final game in JPJ.
Virginia would love to send Coach K home with a loss.
The first meeting
Virginia and Duke went at it in the first meeting, an exciting display of basketball that culminated in a last-second Reece Beekman three.
The Hoos fought their way to that last possession, staging their single best defensive performance of the season. Jayden Gardner shut down Paolo Banchero, Beekman stymied Trevor Keels and the Hoos nullified AJ Griffin.
Mark Williams was the only Blue Devil to put up significant numbers, tallying 16 points and 4 rebounds.
On the other end of the court, Virginia inflicted damage from the paint. 52 of Virginia’s 69 points were scored from within the painted area. Most of those points came from Gardner, who scored 17, and from Kadin Shedrick, who added 16.
It was a complete performance from Virginia; every player contributed something toward the monumental victory.
What Duke has done since then
Duke is 4-0 since its loss to Virginia, but it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing.
An 18-point road victory over Clemson was nice, but was marred by an ugly foul committed by Clemson’s David Collins that resulted in his ejection. Duke’s Wendell Moore Jr. did not sustain any lasting injuries as a result of the foul, and resumed playing not long after the incident.
The Clemson win was followed by a comfortable road win over Boston College. Then came a home tilt against Wake Forest. Coach K, citing “exhaustion,” did not come out of the halftime locker room to coach the second half. With 15 minutes left, Duke held a 19-point advantage. It evaporated as the game wore on, Wake tying it with 18 seconds to play.
Chaos ensued, a controversial no-goaltending call gifting Duke a lead that almost disappeared when a Wake full court shot rimmed out at the buzzer.
Duke won the following game, against Florida State, by 18.
The four-game stretch saw a return to usual form for the Blue Devils. Paolo Banchero exceeded 12 points in every game, AJ Griffin scored in double figures in every game and Duke’s defense returned.
Duke enters this game ranked 8th on KenPom and sitting atop the ACC standings.
The prediction
Virginia’s first matchup with Duke can be accurately termed A New Hope for the way it revived dormant NCAA Tournament hopes. The question is, will the second game come to be known as The Blue Devil Strikes Back, or will we skip that phase altogether and go straight to Return of the Wahoo?
Yes, a Star Wars reference in a preview of one of the most important games of the season. Sue me.
Seriously, though, the metaphor is apt. Like the empire in Star Wars, Duke has the firepower to vanquish Virginia. Its top-7 ranking is not a mistake. In the first game, Virginia, as the rebellion did in the original Star Wars, caught Duke with its defenses down and used a last-gasp effort to defeat it.
Over the intervening weeks, Duke has rebuilt its Death Star. But I think Virginia is going to destroy it once more.
The Hoos are confident after the Miami victory, they’ll have a home crowd behind them, Gardner has looked unguardable over the past two weeks and every win has seen at least one other player step up in a big way. The defense has coalesced as well, and at the end of the day, the Hoos have more to play for.
It will be a tight one, but in a pivotal game, I expect Virginia to emerge victorious.
Duke at Virginia will tip at 7 pm EST and air on ESPN.
Image – Virginia Athletics