As Virginia put the finishing touches on a 71-58 victory over Miami, a beatdown was starting some 200 miles south. By the time elated Virginia fans switched their televisions to the Duke-UNC game, the overmatched Tar Heels were already defeated.
Final score: Duke 87, Carolina 67. It could have been a whole lot worse.
A Carolina team that destroyed Virginia, 74-58, looked inept against the Blue Devils. Midway through the opening period, it was 31-8, Duke. With a few minutes left, it was 87-59.
The massacre was unfolding at the same time as jubilant Virginia fans were pondering the significance of the unexpectedly easy win over Miami. The win took Virginia to sixth in the ACC standings, just a half-game back from fourth and the all-important ACC Tournament double-bye.
It was a huge win, not just because of the great performance that accompanied it but because it was Virginia’s first time winning two games in a row in over a month. It also rekindled NCAA Tournament hopes.
Virginia would like to keep those hopes from burning out. To do so, they’ll almost certainly need to beat Duke at some point this season. Be it at JPJ in a couple weeks, on the way to an at-large bid, or in the ACCT, to claim the title and an automatic bid, it has to happen. But doing it in Cameron Indoor is a nearly impossible task.
The opponent
Duke will be the first ranked opponent Virginia’s faced since the Hoos were blown out on the road by sixth-ranked Houston. That was Virginia’s third game of the season; it’s been nearly 12 weeks since then. The Hoos defeated 15th-ranked Providence a few weeks later, their “best” win of the season, but the Friars were not ranked when they played Virginia.
Duke, ranked ninth in the country, is being heralded as a national-title favorite after obliterating North Carolina.
There are very few blights on an impressive Blue Devil resume that includes wins over fifth-ranked Kentucky and second-ranked Gonzaga. Duke’s only three losses came away to Ohio State, home to Miami and at Florida State. The Blue Devils, in Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season, come into this game riding a five-game win streak.
Duke is KenPom’s number nine team, with the 11th-most efficient offense and 15th-most efficient defense. They’re the best rebounding team in the ACC, they’re tall and they rarely turn the ball over.
A scary offense starts with Paolo Banchero, the 6’10” forward who was drawing national acclaim before the season even began. Banchero is long and athletic, a versatile player with a dizzying array of post moves. He can also pop out and shoot the three when required. On the season, Banchero averages 17.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.
The other highly-touted Duke freshmen are Trevor Keels (whom Virginia recruited heavily) and AJ Griffin. Keels stands at a powerful 6’4” and 221 pounds, and is a skilled ball-handler. Griffin is two inches taller and a pound heavier, knocks down a staggering 50% of his threes (36-72 on the season) and, after Banchero, has been Duke’s best player over the last couple of weeks.
Duke also has veteran leadership in the form of 6’5” forward Wendell Moore Jr., who shoots 40% from three. Rounding out the rotation is seven-footer Mark Williams, whose playing time has diminished recently.
Virginia will have its hands full trying to stay in front of this group. The only relief Virginia might find is defending the three-point line. In conference play, Duke is shooting 36% from deep. That means they shouldn’t be able to drown Virginia in threes, a la NC State.
But things don’t get easier on the other end of the floor, where Duke possesses a sturdy defense. The Blue Devils’ length is difficult to maneuver through, and the guards are all solid defenders. That defense is peaking, too: a week ago, Duke held Notre Dame to 43 points.
The prediction
Need I spell it out?
The only chance Virginia has to win this game is to bring everything it brought to the Miami game… and hope for some luck.
It’ll take another round of furious three-point shooting, smart decision-making and clean, fluid offense. It’ll take a herculean effort on defense. It’ll take… some luck.
On defense, Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick will have to play better than they have all season. Jayden Gardner will have to battle for every inch. Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman, two excellent defenders, will have to play to their potential.
Slowing the game down is essential. The Hoos need to control the pace and take care of the ball if they want to avoid being trampled by Duke.
Perhaps this preview has been too negative. It is conceivable that Virginia storms into Cameron Indoor, stomps on ascendant Duke, quiets the rabid lunatics who call themselves the “Cameron Crazies” and stuns the college basketball world.
It’s just very unlikely.
Virginia at Duke will tip at 7 pm EST and air on ESPN.
Image – Virginia Athletics