As far as ACC games go this season, Wednesday night’s Virginia-Duke matchup was epic. The final scheduled meeting between Mike Krzyzewski and Tony Bennett was as much a boxing match as it was a chess match.
On the court, there were the players, trading blows to the very last minute. If one team hit a three, the other would answer. The game’s biggest storylines were outstanding performances by Virginia’s Kihei Clark and Duke’s Jeremy Roach.
On the sideline, there were the two legendary coaches. Both moved their pieces around the board deftly, but it was Coach K who played the checkmate move, though only after a riveting game that showed Virginia to be a very competitive team.
Staying in the game against the nation’s seventh-ranked team was a moral victory for Virginia. But moral victories only mean so much at this stage of the season. Virginia is 80th in the NET, with three crippling Quad 3 losses. That Virginia is one of the hotter teams in the nation will help its case, but those numbers are hard to overcome.
For Virginia to go dancing, it will either have to hoist the ACC trophy or come very close to doing so. The Hoos must beat Florida State and Louisville to close the regular season.
The opponent
Florida State started ACC play 6-2, ascending to second in the league by virtue of a six-game win streak that included a victory over Duke.
Then the injuries began. Starting forward Malik Osborne suffered an ankle injury, starting guard Anthony Polite fractured his wrist and starting center Naheem McLeod broke his hand. That was bad enough, until leading scorer Caleb Mills crashed out of the lineup with an ankle injury against North Carolina.
The injury-riddled Seminoles have lost eight of their last nine and fallen to ninth in the ACC. At halftime of the loss to North Carolina, Florida State trailed 62-24; in their last game, the Noles were dispatched by perennial ACC bottom-feeder Boston College.
KenPom ranks Leonard Hamilton’s group as the 110th team in the nation, with the 137th offense and the 99th defense. At 31% in conference play, FSU is a worse three-point shooting team than Virginia. The Noles also have the lowest field goal percentage in the conference.
Hamilton is widely celebrated for constructing deep rosters replete with long, athletic players. The height is there—Florida State is the tallest team in the country, according to KenPom—but the depth is not. That factor is especially damaging in light of the plague of injuries.
Many players see the floor for Florida State over the course of a game, but their overall caliber is low compared to past teams. The most prolific scorer left at Hamilton’s disposal is freshman Matthew Cleveland, a 6’7” guard who averages 11.1 points and collects 4.8 rebounds per game. Cleveland fits the Hamilton mold as an extraordinary athlete, but has no three-point shot to keep defenses honest.
Florida State carries a lot of freshmen on its roster, any of whom can explode at any time. But besides Cleveland, the only other player to watch is senior RayQuan Evans, a powerful 6’4” guard. He has largely failed to step up as the players around him suffered injuries, though is only a few games removed from a 28-point outing against Clemson.
Because of the depleted roster, Florida State shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Virginia.
The prediction
Virginia should win this game fairly easily.
In watching Florida State play a couple games recently, it’s clear that there’s an element of shock at play. Going from 6-2 in the ACC and squarely in the national conversation to 7-10 and irrelevant is tough to stomach. Leonard Hamilton and his staff are doing their best to marshall their troops, but there are gaping holes in the Florida State ranks.
Jayden Gardner is a difficult matchup for the Noles. Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro will draw FSU senior center Tanor Ngom, an easier adversary than any of Duke’s big men. The guard battle is the most intriguing, pitting Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman against Cleveland and Evans. FSU’s unlikely route to victory would start with a victory in the guard battle.
There’s another factor at play: This is Kihei’s senior night. A player who’s given so much to this program will be honored before the game. Kihei will not have his night spoiled by a loss.
Florida State at Virginia will tip at 4 pm EST and air on ESPN2.
Image – Virginia Athletics