In a stunning, head-turning upset on Monday, Virginia toppled Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium. It was a victory of enormous magnitude, raising Virginia’s aspirations for the rest of the season. The Hoos now have their sights set on a high ACC regular-season finish and an ACC Tournament double-bye.
Virginia hopes to use this late-season run to exorcize the demons of bad early-season losses and earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
To achieve those goals, though, Virginia must avoid slipping up. Interestingly, the Hoos are in much the same position Duke was about a week ago. Fresh off a dominant road victory in a rivalry game against North Carolina, Duke returned home for a less-hyped game against Virginia.
The Blue Devils lost, in part because Virginia played a great game but also because Duke lacked energy. Coach K would later say Virginia was “hungrier” than his team.
Virginia has to avoid falling into the same trap Duke did. In the wake of the rousing road victory, it would be easy to overlook an underwhelming Georgia Tech team. To come out flat would mean to open the door for the Yellow Jackets. Virginia must exhibit the same intensity it showed on Monday.
The opponent
Last year’s ACC Tournament champion is looking decidedly different this season. Josh Pastner is coming off his best two seasons as Georgia Tech head coach; now his program is taking a step back.
It started with a home loss to Miami of Ohio on the opening night of the season. Georgia Tech recovered from that, winning five in a row against weak opposition, but was then pummeled by ranked teams four times in a row.
ACC play has been no kinder to the Yellow Jackets. At 3-9, Georgia Tech is 14th in the ACC standings, level on wins with last-place NC State. Aside from a 75-61 win over Florida State, Georgia Tech has traipsed through the season with few signs of life.
Gone are stalwarts Jose Alvarado and Moses Wright. All that remains of last year’s starting five are senior guards Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher. Those two are playing impressive individual basketball—Devoe averages 18.7 points, 3.2 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game while hitting 39% of his threes, Usher averages 15 points and 6.7 boards and connects on 36% of his threes—but they have been left to shoulder the burden without much help.
The roster is guard-heavy, the top six scorers all listed as guards. Khalid Moore, a 6’7” forward, and Rodney Howard, a 6’10” center, are the only big men who garner significant playing time. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that Georgia Tech is the worst rebounding team in the ACC on a per-game basis.
The Yellow Jackets are in the bottom third of the conference in every major statistical category except for steals. They’re ranked 157th in the nation by KenPom, with the 227th offense and the 97th defense (Virginia, incidentally, has risen to the 76th spot on KenPom).
Georgia Tech will rely heavily on its guards, and will hope that Virginia is hit by an offensive dry spell. The Duke game was devoid of Wahoo scoring droughts; the Hoos would do well to repeat the performance.
The prediction
This is not a difficult pick. One team is on a major upward trajectory, the other is meandering through a swamp of irrelevance.
One way for Georgia Tech to swim out of that swamp, of course, would be to tear Virginia down from its pedestal.
Virginia can ensure that doesn’t happen by bringing the same intensity it brought to the Duke game on both sides of the floor. In Cameron, the Hoos laid the blueprint for success without hitting many threes. If they execute the same simple offense that resulted in 52 points in the paint, it will bode well.
Dating back to the 12-point win over Boston College, Virginia has played three very good games in a row. A win over Georgia Tech would extend the win streak to four, matching the largest such run of the season.
Virginia just needs to do the same things it’s been doing.
Georgia Tech at Virginia will tip at 4 pm EST and air on ESPN2.
Image – Virginia Athletics