Following the successful dismantling of in-state opponent Radford on Friday, Virginia will travel to Houston for a big early-season matchup. The Hoos righted the ship after opening with a loss to Navy, but now stare down the maw of the stiffest opposition on their non-conference slate.
There were some good signs present in the win over Radford. Virginia rebounded better, shot the ball better and played tighter defense. A couple players also had quality outings, notably Armaan Franklin, Jayden Gardner and Reece Beekman.
The Hoos are going to need to exploit every ounce of potential they showed in the Radford game to add a second tally to the win column. It will be a difficult game in a hostile road environment, something Virginia players haven’t experienced in a couple years.
The opponent
Houston began their season with a scare, having to rally late to force overtime against Hofstra. They went on to win the extra period, and followed it up with a convincing 79-46 victory over Rice.
A couple players have excelled in the early going for Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars. Junior guard Marcus Sasser has been the standout, averaging 25.5 points on 44.4% three-point shooting. He has found help from fellow guard Kyler Edwards, who has scored an average of 14 points between the two games.
The pair of guards is going to make an interesting matchup for whoever Tony Bennett decides to throw at them. They’re both fairly judicious in their shot selection, and good defenders.
But support from the rest of the roster has not been entirely forthcoming. No other player averages more than 7.5 points, though the team as a whole has been solid from deep. A Virginia win would start with shutting down the two guards.
On the other side of the ball, it’s going to be very interesting to see what kind of offensive performance Virginia can muster. It’s early yet, but KenPom ranks Houston eighth in defensive efficiency. This favorable assessment of the Cougar defense is backed up by the way they stymied Rice, a respectable offensive team.
Houston is not the biggest team, so look for Jayden Gardner to bully his way inside. Kadin Shedrick’s performance will be similarly valuable, and Armaan Franklin must catch fire again from deep.
Both teams suffered first-game hiccups, yet Houston pulled out a narrow win and Virginia didn’t. Both squads are very much works in progress, and placing them across from each other should yield some interesting results.
The prediction
Early season college hoops always comes with a measure of unpredictability. While Houston is the clear favorite right now, it’s not hyperbole to say that anything can happen.
If the Hoos can replicate their first-half play from the Radford game, they’ll stand a chance. If Houston can shut Virginia down like they did Rice, the game will play to a different tune.
The deciding factor might very well be the obvious—Houston is playing a home game. Home court advantage was overlooked last year because of the empty arenas, but fans are back this season and certainly playing a role.
Houston came very close to selling out their arena (capacity 7,000 fans) in their first two games, and those were against Hofstra and Rice. Virginia, ACC member and 2019 national champion, is just a hair more significant. The place will be jumping for the game, and that will be difficult to overcome for a visiting team that starts two second years who have never played an away college basketball game with fans in attendance.
The stars seem to point toward Houston, but ultimately this could go either way. If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that Virginia will have a valuable chance to grow against quality opposition. Maybe they’ll snatch a big road win in the process.
Virginia vs Houston will tip at 8 pm EST on ESPN.
Image – Virginia Athletics
1 comment
There’s one thing u forgot about that might decide the game. Rebounding. Remember that Houston is on of the better team on the glass especially on the offensive rebounds and Virginia struggle a bit on the glass so we gotta box out and hold them to 1 shot
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