The last 15 seconds or so of Virginia’s most recent game made for wild viewing. The scoreboard’s inexorable countdown brought with it a tangle of searing emotions—jubilation, shock, confusion, anger—all rolled into one when the final play unfolded. The buzzer signifying the end of the game also announced the end of Virginia’s chances of earning an NCAA Tournament at-large bid.
Virginia 63, Florida State 64.
If one shred of hope remains in the aftermath of the loss, it’s in the form of the upcoming ACC Tournament. The automatic bid that comes with a conference tournament victory is within reach, and the Hoos will be looking to snag it when they travel to Brooklyn next week.
Complicating matters is the fact that one more regular-season game remains. It puts Virginia in a weird position. The Hoos will travel to face Louisville in a game that means pretty much nothing.
Sure, a win and a Virginia Tech loss could bump Virginia to the ACC #6 seed, which is desirable because it would mean avoiding a potential quarterfinal matchup with North Carolina, whom Virginia matches up terribly against (it remains a possibility that Carolina falls to the #3 seed, which would set Virginia up for a possible quarterfinal date with Notre Dame even with a loss to Louisville). Besides that, nothing rides on the matchup between the Hoos and Cardinals.
Which sets up a weird dynamic. Both teams want to win, but both are worried primarily about the upcoming ACC Tournament and their chances of making noise in it.
The first meeting
Maybe Virginia’s 64-52 victory over Louisville on January 24 wasn’t the reason then-Louisville head coach Chris Mack was fired, but the comfortable Virginia victory was the final nail in his coffin. Virginia opened up a commanding 27-8 advantage over the first 14 minutes and withstood a second-half Louisville charge.
Kihei Clark led Virginia in scoring that night, scoring 15 points and hitting 3 threes. Jayden Gardner scored 14, Kadin Shedrick added 11 and Reece Beekman accounted for 11 assists.
Jarrod West was the biggest Cardinal contributor, coming off the bench to score 14 points and spark Louisville’s mini-comeback with 4 threes. Matt Cross scored 11 and Malik Williams went for 10.
Virginia flew smoothly to victory despite the late turbulence Louisville created by making the game relatively close.
What Louisville has done since then
For a brief period, it appeared Louisville was experiencing a resurgence. In the Cardinals’ first game after Mack’s sacking, they played Duke tight; the game was tied with 8:30 to play and a late Duke run was required to hand Louisville a loss.
Then Louisville, led by interim head coach Mike Pegues, nearly knocked off UNC in an overtime game. Controversial officiating drew considerable ire from Cardinals fans in a heartbreaking loss.
The loss almost seemed to break Louisville’s spirit. From there, they were obliterated by Syracuse and beaten by Notre Dame and Miami. Relief came in the form of a victory over Clemson, but it was short-lived: Louisville lost again to UNC in its next game, and was then hammered by Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, bringing the Cardinals to 1-10 over their last 11 outings.
Things have been tough for KenPom’s 140th-ranked team. There’s no consistent source of offense, the three doesn’t fall with anything approaching regularity, and the defense is middling at best. There’s been such little consistency since Mack’s departure that it’s tough to forecast what the Cardinals will throw at the Hoos offensively.
If any Louisville player is going to explode, it’ll be senior forward Malik Williams or senior guard Noah Locke. Williams has found success against Virginia in the past, scoring 13 points in 20 minutes in the 2019-20 season. Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro will be important in slowing down the best member of a struggling team.
The prediction
Virginia’s trips to the KFC Yum! Center are always nostalgic. The arena was the site of De’Andre Hunter’s 2018 game-winning three, which made use of the backboard and came after a remarkable last-minute comeback. It also hosted Virginia’s 2019 Elite Eight victory over Purdue, which evolved into one of—if not the—greatest games in recent NCAA Tournament history. Mamadi Miracle, anyone?
And while this game is unlikely to be as thrilling as the 2018 win or as cathartic as the 2019 triumph, it should be another Virginia win on Louisville’s home court.
At first glance, the loss to Florida State appeared a horrible one. But while FSU’s midweek victory over Notre Dame didn’t wipe out the poor performance, it was a sign that maybe Virginia didn’t play as awfully as we previously thought. Tony Bennett made a couple confusing lineup decisions, and Kihei Clark had a (very) off night.
Virginia will come in rested and recharged, and aware that things must change in earnest for dreams of an ACCT championship to come remotely close to realization.
No team has been able to slow Jayden Gardner over the last month or so, and that won’t change on Gardner’s first visit to the Yum! Center. Virginia’s big-man duo should see more playing time and hopefully make use of it, and Clark is due to recover.
A couple weeks ago, Virginia looked like one of the hottest teams in the country. That flame was snuffed out when the Hoos lost three of four. It’ll need to burn brightly in the ACC Tournament—this is a chance to reignite it.
Virginia at Louisville will tip at 12 pm EST and air on ESPN2
Image – Virginia Athletics