Virginia’s been jogging on a treadmill all season. The speed setting has fluctuated wildly, jolting the Hoos and threatening to throw them off. But they’ve clung to the treadmill’s handles with a sweaty grip, strained fingertips keeping them from being sucked off the back.
The treadmill’s convulsions have become too much for the tiring Hoos. A loss to NC State sent them tumbling to the floor, effectively eliminated from NCAA Tournament at-large bid contention.
A similar story has unfolded across the border in Kentucky, where Louisville’s season has sunken into disrepair. An air of malaise is setting in around both teams. But one squad will at least find some solace in earning a win.
The opponent
Louisville and Virginia have identical 11-8 overall and 5-4 ACC records. The Cardinals started off the season shakily, losing to Furman in their second game. They also suffered non-conference losses to Michigan State, Depaul and Western Kentucky, alongside unremarkable victories.
After winning its first four conference games, Louisville looked to be ascending. But since that 4-0 ACC start, the Cardinals have dropped four of five games, including a 12-point loss at Pittsburgh. In their last game, they fell by 12 at home to Notre Dame.
KenPom ranks the Cardinals as the 109th best team in the nation. They’re ranked 178th in offensive efficiency and 59th in defensive efficiency. For context, Virginia is now at its lowest KenPom ranking of the season, at 93rd. The Hoos are ranked worse on the defensive end than on the offensive (98th and 95th, respectively), which should give you some indication as to how much this defense is underperforming.
But back to Louisville. As evidenced by their KenPom rating, the Cardinals are even worse offensively than Virginia. They’re led by Florida transfer Noah Locke, a 6’3” senior guard who averages 10.5 points per game on 37.7% three-point shooting. That’s the highest mark from beyond the arc among Louisville players who have played in more than three games. On the season, the team is shooting 32% from deep.
Following Locke is Malik Williams, a 6’11” senior forward who scores 10 points and collects 8.6 rebounds per game. Williams is the one to watch. Virginia has been cleaved in two by athletic big men all season, and Williams fits the mold.
Other than Williams, the Cardinals are not a very tall team. They’ve done well at fending off opponents in search of offensive rebounds, but are not a team that attacks the offensive glass. That’s good news for a Virginia squad that struggles mightily to claim simple defensive rebounds.
Also good for the Hoos is that Louisville does not place emphasis on hunting turnovers. Virginia’s worst games come when they allow opposing teams to make threes, get offensive rebounds or force turnovers. Louisville is not strong in any of those categories.
The prediction
The most likely outcome here is a Virginia victory, for the reasons just stated.
The Hoos disappeared offensively for lengthy stretches against NC State, but they displayed some decent offense in the game. Jayden Gardner looked to have shaken off the blanket of bad offense pinning him to the ground, at least for the first half. And Armaan Franklin canned 4 of 7 threes, his most prolific three-point shooting night since November.
Reece Bekman has also made massive strides recently. The second-year has reached a level of consistency over the last couple weeks that bodes well for his future in this season and beyond.
But it’s going to be tough for Virginia to light up its side of the scoreboard against a solid Louisville defense.
On the other end of the floor, points should be even harder to come by. As already mentioned, Louisville is a poor offensive team. That, together with the fact that Tony Bennett has undoubtedly laid into his guys for what they allowed against the Wolfpack, should mean that Virginia will find success locking down Louisville.
It should be a low-scoring affair, but the signs point to a Virginia victory.
Louisville at Virginia will tip at 7 pm EST and air on ESPN.
Image – Virginia Athletics