Virginia’s win over Miami two weeks ago got the Hoos back on the bubble. It was followed by a monumental road win over Duke and a relatively comfortable home win against Georgia Tech.
Then Virginia went to Cassell Coliseum to face Virginia Tech. Hounded by opposing fans and unable to settle into the game, the Hoos played a disjointed game. Frustrations culminated with Tony Bennett uncharacteristically yelling “bullls–t” in the closing minutes of the 62-53 loss.
The loss puts Virginia in much the same position it was in prior to the first game against Miami. Virginia knew it probably had to win that game to have a realistic chance at breaking into the NCAA Tournament field. The Hoos definitely have to win this game to keep that dream alive.
Big Dance aspirations will not be the only thing on the line when Virginia and Miami take the floor. The race for the ACC Tournament double-bye is a close one. Six teams are still in the running; two of them—Duke and Notre Dame—have essentially locked up spots in the quarterfinal round already.
The remaining four squads vying for the final two slots are Miami, at 11-5 in the ACC; North Carolina, at 10-5; Wake Forest, at 10-6; and Virginia, also at 10-6. There is a scenario in which Virginia ends Saturday in fourth place. The Hoos would have to beat Miami, Notre Dame would have to defeat Wake and North Carolina would have to fall to Virginia Tech.
That would leave Bennett and Virginia in the driver’s seat for the double-bye. Regardless of whether that scenario fully plays out, this is a massive game for ACC Tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament hopes.
The first meeting
Virginia led by as many as 21 points in an eventual 71-58 victory. The Hoos went into the break with a 9-point buffer thanks to an Armaan Franklin buzzer-beater, and built the lead from there.
Powering that performance was three-point shooting the likes of which Virginia fans are certainly longing for right now. The Hoos hit 8 of 15 threes (53%) in the victory over Miami. Since then, the Hoos are an abysmal 6-for-39 (15%), and failed to convert any three-point attempts against Virginia Tech.
Armaan Franklin went for 22 points in the Miami victory, Kihei Clark scored 11 and Jayden Gardner added 12. Virginia had 23 assists on 30 made field goals.
On the other end of the court, Miami was unable to get things rolling. The Hurricanes ran decent offense and manufactured open looks, but couldn’t knock down threes. They were 4-17 from deep on the night. Kameron McGusty and Charlie Moore shouldered the scoring burden, combining for 38 of their team’s 58 points.
It was a dominant victory for Virginia, its most impressive of the season to that point. The Hoos will hope to repeat the performance this time.
What Miami’s done since then
Not a lot, given that the first meeting was just two weeks ago.
The Hurricanes have won all three games they’ve played since they lost to Virginia. All came by single-digit margins. There was an unconvincing 9-point home victory over Georgia Tech, a 4-point triumph at Wake Forest that required an 11-point comeback, and a 7-point win on the road against Louisville.
The poor three-point shooting Miami suffered from during its game against Virginia has not abated. The Canes shot only 29% from deep in their last three games.
But Miami still enters this game ranked 64th on KenPom, 14 spots higher than Virginia. Jim Larranaga’s team has looked very good recently. It will be a tough nut to crack, especially on its home floor.
The prediction
I’m of two minds.
One the one hand, I firmly believe the Virginia Tech game was more an anomaly than a regression to the mean. The Hoos were clearly rattled by the atmosphere and the inconsistent officiating—it was just an off night.
On the other hand, Virginia’s enduring struggles from beyond the arc are a worrying sign. The Hoos deal most of their damage either in the post, by feeding Kadin Shedrick, Francisco Caffaro or Jayden Gardner; or in the midrange, which has become the domain of Gardner and Armaan Franklin.
Without the concern of the three to keep opponents honest, it’s harder to work the ball inside. The defense is able to get more compact, and Reece Beekman and Kihei Clark are given less room to operate.
There’s also the fact that Miami is playing impressive basketball at present and will have all the advantages of playing on one’s home floor. I predict a Miami win.
That’s not to say Virginia can’t pull off the victory. The Hoos have a lot to play for, what with the whole trying-to-make-the-tournament thing. Taking down the Hurricanes would be a long step down the path toward doing so.
Virginia at Miami will tip at 5 pm EST and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics