March ticks ever closer, and Virginia keeps walking in place. Win. Loss. Win. Loss. Repeat.
The Hoos haven’t won two in a row in a month; the alternating win-loss pattern encompasses nine games. After defeating Boston College on Tuesday, Virginia will look to finally break out of the frustrating pattern with a win over Miami.
Win the crucial contest, and Virginia has a legitimate shot at finishing in the ACC’s top five. Lose, and the Hoos slide back to the soft middle of the conference standings.
The opponent
Mustering a win is a difficult task against a team as strong as Miami. At 8-3 and 16-6, the Hurricanes sit at second place in the ACC standings, just a half-game out of the top spot.
After losing to Alabama in November, Miami rattled off a nine-game win streak that culminated with a road victory over Duke. The Hurricanes have since gone 3-3, their losses—two to Florida State, one to Notre Dame—coming by a combined 6 points.
Despite all the success, KenPom is unenthusiastic about Jim Larranaga’s team. Miami is ranked 66th in the country by the website, with the 21st-rated offense and the 158th-rated defense.
The Hurricane blueprint is simple: make shots, don’t commit turnovers, and manufacture steals. Miami’s efficiency from beyond the arc is the most troubling; they knock down 40% of their threes in ACC play to make them the second-best three-point shooting team in the league.
But Miami can also inflict damage in other ways. Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong lead the attack from the guard position, scoring 17.5 and 16.1 points, respectively. McGusty is a 6’5” senior, Wong a 6’3” sophomore. Both are deadly off the dribble and in the midrange.
Accompanying the Wong-McGusty duo is Charlie Moore, a 5’11” senior who averages 12.5 points and 4 assists per game. Moore, a Depaul transfer, is a quick, slippery player with a good head on his shoulders. He was also the one to hit the half-court buzzer beater that downed Virginia Tech last week.
The height on the Hurricane roster comes from Sam Waardenburg. Waardenburg stands at a versatile 6’10” and can hit threes. He’ll be a matchup problem for Virginia.
Miami’s less-than-stellar defense will allow Virginia to score, but it might not be enough if the Hurricanes use their high-flying offense to full effect.
The prediction
Virginia’s easily foreseeable win over Boston College extended my correct-pick streak to an unprecedented five games. Not that anybody cares, but I’m feeling a little pressure coming in here. I deliberated for quite a while (five minutes) over this pick, and am happy to announce that I forecast a Virginia victory.
But victory will only come if Virginia pinpoints the weaknesses in the Miami defense. That means mitigating the disruptive defensive potential of Miami’s guards by bypassing them and throwing the ball to Jayden Gardner, Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro.
I’m a strong advocate of Kihei Clark taking more offensive responsibility, and I recognize that Reece Beekman has made great strides recently, but this is a game for them to act as facilitators instead of scorers.
Regardless of strategy, this is a game everyone in and around the program would really like to see result in a W. If Virginia is to salvage something out of this season, it must start with this game. It must start by breaking the interminable win-loss pattern.
Miami at Virginia will tip at 5 pm EST and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics